Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe
Large carnivores are recovering in Europe, due to an increasing forest cover, ungulate population and conservation measures. Tthis return poses challenges as carnivores can interact with livestock farming. Assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities...
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Language: | French |
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Online Access: | https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/file/2018_LOUVRIER_archivage.pdf |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:tel-01954659v1 2023-05-15T15:51:21+02:00 Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe Modélisation statistique de la distribution des grands carnivores en Europe Louvrier, Julie Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Université Montpellier Olivier Gimenez 2018-11-27 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/file/2018_LOUVRIER_archivage.pdf fr fre HAL CCSD NNT: 2018MONTG036 tel-01954659 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/file/2018_LOUVRIER_archivage.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659 Biodiversité et Ecologie. Université Montpellier, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018MONTG036⟩ Large carnivores Species distribution modelling Citizen sciences Bayesian statistics Conservation biology Population dynamics Grands carnivores Modèles de distribution d’espèces Sciences participatives Statistiques bayésiennes Biologie de la conservation Dynamique des populations [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis Theses 2018 ftunivnantes 2023-03-01T04:50:48Z Large carnivores are recovering in Europe, due to an increasing forest cover, ungulate population and conservation measures. Tthis return poses challenges as carnivores can interact with livestock farming. Assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because large carnivores are highly mobile, elusive and live at very low density, modeling their distributions presents several challenges due to 1) their imperfect detectability, 2) their dynamic ranges over time and 3) their monitoring at large scales consisting of opportunistic data without a formal measure of the sampling effort. In this thesis, we focused on two carnivore species, wolves (Canis lupus) and Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), to develop the methodological aspects related to the modelling of species distributions. We considered the application of occupancy models in the context of monitoring large carnivores in Europe. These models allow the establishment of a link between the species’ presence and environmental covariates while accounting for imperfect detectability, in order to establish the proportion of a study area occupied by the species.We first assessed wolf range dynamics in France from 1994 to 2016, while accounting for species imperfect detection and showed the importance of accounting for time- and space-varying sampling effort using dynamic site-occupancy models.Second, acknowledging that false positives may occur when monitoring rare species, we showcased a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that include both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. The analysis of data on the Eurasian lynx in Alpine countries suggested that incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters.Third, we developed a model accounting for heterogeneity in detection while dealing with false positives. Applying our new approach to a case study with grey wolves in France, we demonstrated ... Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Canis lupus Lynx Lynx lynx lynx Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
French |
topic |
Large carnivores Species distribution modelling Citizen sciences Bayesian statistics Conservation biology Population dynamics Grands carnivores Modèles de distribution d’espèces Sciences participatives Statistiques bayésiennes Biologie de la conservation Dynamique des populations [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
spellingShingle |
Large carnivores Species distribution modelling Citizen sciences Bayesian statistics Conservation biology Population dynamics Grands carnivores Modèles de distribution d’espèces Sciences participatives Statistiques bayésiennes Biologie de la conservation Dynamique des populations [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology Louvrier, Julie Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe |
topic_facet |
Large carnivores Species distribution modelling Citizen sciences Bayesian statistics Conservation biology Population dynamics Grands carnivores Modèles de distribution d’espèces Sciences participatives Statistiques bayésiennes Biologie de la conservation Dynamique des populations [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology |
description |
Large carnivores are recovering in Europe, due to an increasing forest cover, ungulate population and conservation measures. Tthis return poses challenges as carnivores can interact with livestock farming. Assessing their distributions can help to predict and mitigate conflicts with human activities. Because large carnivores are highly mobile, elusive and live at very low density, modeling their distributions presents several challenges due to 1) their imperfect detectability, 2) their dynamic ranges over time and 3) their monitoring at large scales consisting of opportunistic data without a formal measure of the sampling effort. In this thesis, we focused on two carnivore species, wolves (Canis lupus) and Eurasian lynx (Lynx lynx), to develop the methodological aspects related to the modelling of species distributions. We considered the application of occupancy models in the context of monitoring large carnivores in Europe. These models allow the establishment of a link between the species’ presence and environmental covariates while accounting for imperfect detectability, in order to establish the proportion of a study area occupied by the species.We first assessed wolf range dynamics in France from 1994 to 2016, while accounting for species imperfect detection and showed the importance of accounting for time- and space-varying sampling effort using dynamic site-occupancy models.Second, acknowledging that false positives may occur when monitoring rare species, we showcased a dynamic occupancy model that simultaneously accounts for false negatives and positives to jointly analyze data that include both unambiguous detections and ambiguous detections. The analysis of data on the Eurasian lynx in Alpine countries suggested that incorporating ambiguous detections produced more precise estimates of the ecological parameters.Third, we developed a model accounting for heterogeneity in detection while dealing with false positives. Applying our new approach to a case study with grey wolves in France, we demonstrated ... |
author2 |
Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) Université Montpellier Olivier Gimenez |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
Louvrier, Julie |
author_facet |
Louvrier, Julie |
author_sort |
Louvrier, Julie |
title |
Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe |
title_short |
Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe |
title_full |
Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe |
title_fullStr |
Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe |
title_full_unstemmed |
Statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in Europe |
title_sort |
statistical modelling of large carnivores' distribution in europe |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/file/2018_LOUVRIER_archivage.pdf |
genre |
Canis lupus Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus Lynx Lynx lynx lynx |
op_source |
https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659 Biodiversité et Ecologie. Université Montpellier, 2018. Français. ⟨NNT : 2018MONTG036⟩ |
op_relation |
NNT: 2018MONTG036 tel-01954659 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659 https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/document https://theses.hal.science/tel-01954659/file/2018_LOUVRIER_archivage.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766386528904282112 |