Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya
International audience Landslides are a major geohazard that cause thousands of fatalities every year. Despite their importance, identifying unstable slopes and forecasting collapses remains a major challenge. In this study, we use the 7 February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche as a data-rich exampl...
Published in: | Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2022
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/file/nhess-22-3309-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences van Wyk de Vries, Maximillian Bhushan, Shashank Jacquemart, Mylène Deschamps-Berger, César Berthier, Etienne Gascoin, Simon Shean, David E. Shugar, Dan H. Kääb, Andreas Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
topic_facet |
[SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience Landslides are a major geohazard that cause thousands of fatalities every year. Despite their importance, identifying unstable slopes and forecasting collapses remains a major challenge. In this study, we use the 7 February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche as a data-rich example to investigate the potential of remotely sensed datasets for the assessment of slope stability. We investigate imagery over the 3 decades preceding collapse and assess the precursory signs exhibited by this slope prior to the catastrophic collapse. We evaluate monthly slope motion from 2015 to 2021 through feature tracking of high-resolution optical satellite imagery. We then combine these data with a time series of pre- and post-event digital elevation models (DEMs), which we use to evaluate elevation change over the same area. Both datasets show that the 26.9×10 6 m 3 collapse block moved over 10 m horizontally and vertically in the 5 years preceding collapse, with particularly rapid motion occurring in the summers of 2017 and 2018. We propose that the collapse results from a combination of snow loading in a deep headwall crack and permafrost degradation in the heavily jointed bedrock. Despite observing a clear precursory signal, we find that the timing of the Chamoli rock-ice avalanche could likely not have been forecast from satellite data alone. Our results highlight the potential of remotely sensed imagery for assessing landslide hazard in remote areas, but that challenges remain for operational hazard monitoring. |
author2 |
Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
van Wyk de Vries, Maximillian Bhushan, Shashank Jacquemart, Mylène Deschamps-Berger, César Berthier, Etienne Gascoin, Simon Shean, David E. Shugar, Dan H. Kääb, Andreas |
author_facet |
van Wyk de Vries, Maximillian Bhushan, Shashank Jacquemart, Mylène Deschamps-Berger, César Berthier, Etienne Gascoin, Simon Shean, David E. Shugar, Dan H. Kääb, Andreas |
author_sort |
van Wyk de Vries, Maximillian |
title |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_short |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_full |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_fullStr |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_full_unstemmed |
Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya |
title_sort |
pre-collapse motion of the february 2021 chamoli rock-ice avalanche, indian himalaya |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/file/nhess-22-3309-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 |
geographic |
Indian |
geographic_facet |
Indian |
genre |
Ice permafrost |
genre_facet |
Ice permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2022, 22, pp.3309-3327. ⟨10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 insu-03863698 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/file/nhess-22-3309-2022.pdf BIBCODE: 2022NHESS.22.3309V doi:10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 |
container_title |
Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
3309 |
op_container_end_page |
3327 |
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1766027942240976896 |
spelling |
ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:insu-03863698v1 2023-05-15T16:37:38+02:00 Pre-collapse motion of the February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche, Indian Himalaya van Wyk de Vries, Maximillian Bhushan, Shashank Jacquemart, Mylène Deschamps-Berger, César Berthier, Etienne Gascoin, Simon Shean, David E. Shugar, Dan H. Kääb, Andreas Centre d'études spatiales de la biosphère (CESBIO) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2022 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/file/nhess-22-3309-2022.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus Publ. / European Geosciences Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 insu-03863698 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698/file/nhess-22-3309-2022.pdf BIBCODE: 2022NHESS.22.3309V doi:10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1561-8633 EISSN: 1684-9981 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03863698 Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2022, 22, pp.3309-3327. ⟨10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022⟩ [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.5194/nhess-22-3309-2022 2023-03-08T01:09:50Z International audience Landslides are a major geohazard that cause thousands of fatalities every year. Despite their importance, identifying unstable slopes and forecasting collapses remains a major challenge. In this study, we use the 7 February 2021 Chamoli rock-ice avalanche as a data-rich example to investigate the potential of remotely sensed datasets for the assessment of slope stability. We investigate imagery over the 3 decades preceding collapse and assess the precursory signs exhibited by this slope prior to the catastrophic collapse. We evaluate monthly slope motion from 2015 to 2021 through feature tracking of high-resolution optical satellite imagery. We then combine these data with a time series of pre- and post-event digital elevation models (DEMs), which we use to evaluate elevation change over the same area. Both datasets show that the 26.9×10 6 m 3 collapse block moved over 10 m horizontally and vertically in the 5 years preceding collapse, with particularly rapid motion occurring in the summers of 2017 and 2018. We propose that the collapse results from a combination of snow loading in a deep headwall crack and permafrost degradation in the heavily jointed bedrock. Despite observing a clear precursory signal, we find that the timing of the Chamoli rock-ice avalanche could likely not have been forecast from satellite data alone. Our results highlight the potential of remotely sensed imagery for assessing landslide hazard in remote areas, but that challenges remain for operational hazard monitoring. Article in Journal/Newspaper Ice permafrost Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Indian Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences 22 10 3309 3327 |