Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis
International audience Due to polar amplification of climate change, high latitudes are warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world. This warming leads to permafrost thawing, which increases the thickness of the overlying active layer and modifies the subsurface hydrologic regime of the draini...
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03746425 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:insu-03746425v1 2023-05-15T13:03:18+02:00 Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis Sergeant, Flore Therrien, René Oudin, Ludovic Jost, Anne Anctil, François Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS) École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2021 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03746425 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 insu-03746425 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03746425 BIBCODE: 2021JHyd.60126577S doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 ISSN: 0022-1694 Journal of Hydrology https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03746425 Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 601, pp.126577. ⟨10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577⟩ Arctic hydrology Large-scale Recession analysis Thawing permafrost Active layer thickening [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 2023-03-08T01:32:01Z International audience Due to polar amplification of climate change, high latitudes are warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world. This warming leads to permafrost thawing, which increases the thickness of the overlying active layer and modifies the subsurface hydrologic regime of the draining watershed, therefore affecting baseflow to surface water and modifying recession characteristics. The active layer thickening and the subsurface flow modification are assumed to be linearly correlated. The objective of this study is to test this assumption by quantifying the correlation between the temporal evolution of hydrologic parameters (recession slope and initial recession outflow) and 11 controlling factors (all linked to surface, subsurface and climatic conditions) for 336 Arctic catchments from 1970 to 2000. Contrary to previous studies, we demonstrate a clear decrease in recession slope and initial recession outflow over 1970-2000 for a majority of catchments at any significance level. We explain this result by identifying high topography and low permafrost extent as controlling factors that complexify the relationship between trends in recession parameters and active layer thickness evolution. The study goes further by identifying the mechanisms behind the complexification of the relationship: permafrost-extent loss, hydrologic-connectivity increase, flow-path-diversity increase, contributing drainage area multiplication. The novel aspect of the study lay behind the large number of studied catchments and the large range of controlling factors tested. Article in Journal/Newspaper Active layer thickness Arctic Climate change permafrost Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Arctic Journal of Hydrology 601 126577 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic hydrology Large-scale Recession analysis Thawing permafrost Active layer thickening [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
Arctic hydrology Large-scale Recession analysis Thawing permafrost Active layer thickening [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Sergeant, Flore Therrien, René Oudin, Ludovic Jost, Anne Anctil, François Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis |
topic_facet |
Arctic hydrology Large-scale Recession analysis Thawing permafrost Active layer thickening [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Due to polar amplification of climate change, high latitudes are warming up twice as fast as the rest of the world. This warming leads to permafrost thawing, which increases the thickness of the overlying active layer and modifies the subsurface hydrologic regime of the draining watershed, therefore affecting baseflow to surface water and modifying recession characteristics. The active layer thickening and the subsurface flow modification are assumed to be linearly correlated. The objective of this study is to test this assumption by quantifying the correlation between the temporal evolution of hydrologic parameters (recession slope and initial recession outflow) and 11 controlling factors (all linked to surface, subsurface and climatic conditions) for 336 Arctic catchments from 1970 to 2000. Contrary to previous studies, we demonstrate a clear decrease in recession slope and initial recession outflow over 1970-2000 for a majority of catchments at any significance level. We explain this result by identifying high topography and low permafrost extent as controlling factors that complexify the relationship between trends in recession parameters and active layer thickness evolution. The study goes further by identifying the mechanisms behind the complexification of the relationship: permafrost-extent loss, hydrologic-connectivity increase, flow-path-diversity increase, contributing drainage area multiplication. The novel aspect of the study lay behind the large number of studied catchments and the large range of controlling factors tested. |
author2 |
Milieux Environnementaux, Transferts et Interactions dans les hydrosystèmes et les Sols (METIS) École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Sergeant, Flore Therrien, René Oudin, Ludovic Jost, Anne Anctil, François |
author_facet |
Sergeant, Flore Therrien, René Oudin, Ludovic Jost, Anne Anctil, François |
author_sort |
Sergeant, Flore |
title |
Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis |
title_short |
Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis |
title_full |
Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis |
title_fullStr |
Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis |
title_full_unstemmed |
Evolution of Arctic rivers recession flow: Global assessment and data-based attribution analysis |
title_sort |
evolution of arctic rivers recession flow: global assessment and data-based attribution analysis |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03746425 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate change permafrost |
genre_facet |
Active layer thickness Arctic Climate change permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 0022-1694 Journal of Hydrology https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03746425 Journal of Hydrology, 2021, 601, pp.126577. ⟨10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 insu-03746425 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03746425 BIBCODE: 2021JHyd.60126577S doi:10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2021.126577 |
container_title |
Journal of Hydrology |
container_volume |
601 |
container_start_page |
126577 |
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1766333622367813632 |