Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach
International audience Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop a...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2021
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Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Verjans%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20East%20Antarctic%20Firn%20Thickness%20Constrained%20Using%20a%20Model.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:insu-03706456v1 2023-05-15T13:39:40+02:00 Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. Mcmillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2021 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Verjans%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20East%20Antarctic%20Firn%20Thickness%20Constrained%20Using%20a%20Model.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020GL092060 insu-03706456 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Verjans%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20East%20Antarctic%20Firn%20Thickness%20Constrained%20Using%20a%20Model.pdf BIBCODE: 2021GeoRL.4892060V doi:10.1029/2020GL092060 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess CC-BY-ND ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456 Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48, ⟨10.1029/2020GL092060⟩ east Antarctic ice sheet firn model ensemble [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 2023-03-01T01:36:24Z International audience Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992 and 2017. Using statistical emulation of firn densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2 and 1.0 cm yr −1 (15%-300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modeled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step toward more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Antarctic East Antarctic Ice Sheet Geophysical Research Letters 48 7 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
east Antarctic ice sheet firn model ensemble [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
east Antarctic ice sheet firn model ensemble [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. Mcmillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach |
topic_facet |
east Antarctic ice sheet firn model ensemble [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience Mass balance assessments of the East Antarctic ice sheet (EAIS) are highly sensitive to changes in firn thickness, causing substantial disagreement in estimates of its contribution to sea level. To better constrain the uncertainty in recent firn thickness changes, we develop an ensemble of 54 model scenarios of firn evolution between 1992 and 2017. Using statistical emulation of firn densification models, we quantify the impact of firn compaction formulation, differing climatic forcing, and surface snow density on firn thickness evolution. At basin scales, the ensemble uncertainty in firn thickness change ranges between 0.2 and 1.0 cm yr −1 (15%-300% relative uncertainty), with the choice of climate forcing having the largest influence on the spread. Our results show the regions of the ice sheet where unexplained discrepancies exist between observed elevation changes and an extensive set of modeled firn thickness changes estimates, marking an important step toward more accurately constraining ice sheet mass balance. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. Mcmillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. |
author_facet |
Verjans, V. Leeson, A. A. Mcmillan, M. Stevens, C. M. van Wessem, J. M. van de Berg, W. J. van den Broeke, M. R. Kittel, C. Amory, C. Fettweis, X. Hansen, N. Boberg, F. Mottram, R. |
author_sort |
Verjans, V. |
title |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach |
title_short |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach |
title_full |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach |
title_fullStr |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Uncertainty in East Antarctic Firn Thickness Constrained Using a Model Ensemble Approach |
title_sort |
uncertainty in east antarctic firn thickness constrained using a model ensemble approach |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Verjans%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20East%20Antarctic%20Firn%20Thickness%20Constrained%20Using%20a%20Model.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
geographic |
Antarctic East Antarctic Ice Sheet |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic East Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet |
op_source |
ISSN: 0094-8276 EISSN: 1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456 Geophysical Research Letters, 2021, 48, ⟨10.1029/2020GL092060⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2020GL092060 insu-03706456 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-03706456/file/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202021%20-%20Verjans%20-%20Uncertainty%20in%20East%20Antarctic%20Firn%20Thickness%20Constrained%20Using%20a%20Model.pdf BIBCODE: 2021GeoRL.4892060V doi:10.1029/2020GL092060 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nd/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2020GL092060 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
48 |
container_issue |
7 |
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1766122081245724672 |