Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate
International audience We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2015
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/file/THE%20CRYOSPHERE-Century-scale%20simulations%20of%20the%20response%20of%20the%20West%20Antarctic%20Ice%20Sheet%20to%20a%20warming%20climate.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:insu-01284498v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Cornford, S.L Martin, D.F Payne, A.J Ng, E.G Le Brocq, A.M M. Gladstone, R. Edwards, Thomas L Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C R. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, Hh Krinner, G Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R Vaughan, D.G. Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. |
author2 |
University of Bristol Bristol Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley (LBNL) University of Exeter Université de Liège Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU) Utrecht University Utrecht Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Cornford, S.L Martin, D.F Payne, A.J Ng, E.G Le Brocq, A.M M. Gladstone, R. Edwards, Thomas L Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C R. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, Hh Krinner, G Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R Vaughan, D.G. |
author_facet |
Cornford, S.L Martin, D.F Payne, A.J Ng, E.G Le Brocq, A.M M. Gladstone, R. Edwards, Thomas L Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C R. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, Hh Krinner, G Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R Vaughan, D.G. |
author_sort |
Cornford, S.L |
title |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_short |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_fullStr |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate |
title_sort |
century-scale simulations of the response of the west antarctic ice sheet to a warming climate |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/file/THE%20CRYOSPHERE-Century-scale%20simulations%20of%20the%20response%20of%20the%20West%20Antarctic%20Ice%20Sheet%20to%20a%20warming%20climate.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) |
geographic |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier |
genre |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier |
genre_facet |
Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2015, 9 (4), pp.1579-1600. ⟨10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 insu-01284498 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/file/THE%20CRYOSPHERE-Century-scale%20simulations%20of%20the%20response%20of%20the%20West%20Antarctic%20Ice%20Sheet%20to%20a%20warming%20climate.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1579 |
op_container_end_page |
1600 |
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1766376294362120192 |
spelling |
ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:insu-01284498v1 2023-05-15T13:23:55+02:00 Century-scale simulations of the response of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet to a warming climate Cornford, S.L Martin, D.F Payne, A.J Ng, E.G Le Brocq, A.M M. Gladstone, R. Edwards, Thomas L Shannon, S.R. Agosta, C R. van den Broeke, M. Hellmer, Hh Krinner, G Ligtenberg, S. R. M. Timmermann, R Vaughan, D.G. University of Bristol Bristol Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory Berkeley (LBNL) University of Exeter Université de Liège Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE) Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG) Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institute for Marine and Atmospheric Research Utrecht (IMAU) Utrecht University Utrecht Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI) British Antarctic Survey (BAS) Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) 2015 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/file/THE%20CRYOSPHERE-Century-scale%20simulations%20of%20the%20response%20of%20the%20West%20Antarctic%20Ice%20Sheet%20to%20a%20warming%20climate.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 insu-01284498 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498 https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/document https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498/file/THE%20CRYOSPHERE-Century-scale%20simulations%20of%20the%20response%20of%20the%20West%20Antarctic%20Ice%20Sheet%20to%20a%20warming%20climate.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01284498 The Cryosphere, Copernicus 2015, 9 (4), pp.1579-1600. ⟨10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2015 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-1579-2015 2022-11-16T02:09:37Z International audience We use the BISICLES adaptive mesh ice sheet model to carry out one, two, and three century simulations of the fast-flowing ice streams of the West Antarctic Ice Sheet, deploying sub-kilometer resolution around the grounding line since coarser resolution results in substantial underestimation of the response. Each of the simulations begins with a geometry and velocity close to present-day observations, and evolves according to variation in meteoric ice accumulation rates and oceanic ice shelf melt rates. Future changes in accumulation and melt rates range from no change, through anomalies computed by atmosphere and ocean models driven by the E1 and A1B emissions scenarios, to spatially uniform melt rate anomalies that remove most of the ice shelves over a few centuries. We find that variation in the resulting ice dynamics is dominated by the choice of initial conditions and ice shelf melt rate and mesh resolution, although ice accumulation affects the net change in volume above flotation to a similar degree. Given sufficient melt rates, we compute grounding line retreat over hundreds of kilometers in every major ice stream, but the ocean models do not predict such melt rates outside of the Amundsen Sea Embayment until after 2100. Within the Amundsen Sea Embayment the largest single source of variability is the onset of sustained retreat in Thwaites Glacier, which can triple the rate of eustatic sea level rise. Article in Journal/Newspaper Amundsen Sea Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Ice Shelf Ice Shelves The Cryosphere Thwaites Glacier Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Antarctic Amundsen Sea West Antarctic Ice Sheet Thwaites Glacier ENVELOPE(-106.750,-106.750,-75.500,-75.500) The Cryosphere 9 4 1579 1600 |