Evaluating the climate and air quality impacts of short-lived pollutants

• Published in: Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics
• Main Authors: Stohl, A., Aamaas, B., Amann, M., Baker, L. H., Bellouin, N., Berntsen, T. K., Boucher, Olivier, Cherian, R., Collins, W., Daskalakis, Nikolaos, Dusinska, M., Eckhardt, S., Fuglestvedt, J. S., Harju, M., Heyes, C., Hodnebrog, Ø., Hao, J., Im, U., Kanakidou, M., Klimont, Z., Kupiainen, K., Law, Kathy S., Lund, M. T., Maas, R., Macintosh, C. R., Myhre, G., Myriokefalitakis, S., Olivié, D., Quaas, J., Quennehen, Boris, Raut, Jean-Christophe, Rumbold, S. T., Samset, B. H., Schulz, M, Seland, Ø., Shine, K. P., Skeie, R. B., Wang, S., Yttri, K. E., Zhu, T.
• Other Authors: Norwegian Institute for Air Research (NILU), Center for International Climate and Environmental Research Oslo (CICERO), University of Oslo (UiO), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis Laxenburg (IIASA), Department of Meteorology Reading, University of Reading (UOR), Laboratoire Atmosphères, Milieux, Observations Spatiales (LATMOS), Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Leipziger Institut für Meteorologie (LIM), Universität Leipzig Leipzig, Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, Environmental Chemical Processes Laboratory Heraklion (ECPL), Department of Chemistry Heraklion, University of Crete Heraklion (UOC)-University of Crete Heraklion (UOC), Institute of Chemical Engineering and High Temperature Chemical Processes, (FORTH/ICE-HT), Foundation for Research and Technology - Hellas (FORTH), Tsinghua University Beijing (THU), Aarhus University Aarhus, TROPO - LATMOS, Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), National Institute for Public Health and the Environment Bilthoven (RIVM), Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET), State Joint Key Laboratory of Environmental Simulation and Pollution Control, College of Environmental Sciences and Engineering Peking, Peking University Beijing -Peking University Beijing
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2015
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; Arctic
• Online Access: https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01159851; https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01159851/document; https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-01159851/file/acp-15-10529-2015.pdf; https://doi.org/10.5194/acp-15-10529-2015

International audience This paper presents a summary of the work done within the European Union's Seventh Framework Programme project ECLIPSE (Evaluating the Climate and Air Quality Impacts of Short-Lived Pollutants). ECLIPSE had a unique systematic concept for designing a realistic and effective mitigation scenario for short-lived climate pollutants (SLCPs: methane, aerosols and ozone, and their precursor species) and quantifying its climate and air quality impacts, and this paper presents the results in the context of this overarching strategy. The first step in ECLIPSE was to create a new emission inventory based on current legislation (CLE) for the recent past and until 2050. Substantial progress compared to previous work was made by including previously unaccounted types of sources such as flaring of gas associated with oil production, and wick lamps. These emission data were used for present-day reference simulations with four advanced Earth system models (ESMs) and six chemistry transport models (CTMs). The model simulations were compared with a variety of ground-based and satellite observational data sets from Asia, Europe and the Arctic. It was found that the models still underestimate the measured seasonality of aerosols in the Arctic but to a lesser extent than in previous studies. Problems likely related to the emissions were identified for Northern Russia and India, in particular. To estimate the climate impacts of SLCPs, ECLIPSE followed two paths of research: the first path calculated radiative forcing (RF) values for a large matrix of SLCP species emissions, for different seasons and regions independently. Based on these RF calculations, the Global Temperature change Potential metric for a time horizon of 20 years (GTP20) was calculated for each SLCP emission type. This climate metric was then used in an integrated assessment model to identify all emission mitigation measures with a beneficial air quality and short-term (20 year) climate impact. These measures together defined a SLCP mitigation ...