A study of the large-scale climatic effects of a possible disappearance of high-latitude inland water surfaces during the 21st century

• Main Authors: Krinner, Gerhard, Boike, Julia
• Other Authors: CLIPS, Laboratoire de glaciologie et géophysique de l'environnement (LGGE), Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Observatoire des Sciences de l'Univers de Grenoble (OSUG), Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Joseph Fourier - Grenoble 1 (UJF)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA)-Université Savoie Mont Blanc (USMB Université de Savoie Université de Chambéry )-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Department of Bentho-pelagic processes, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI)-Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Department of Bentho-pelagic processes, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Alexander-von-Humboldt-Stiftung; CNRS; LEFE (EVE) project "MISSTERRE"
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2010
• Subjects: [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology; Boreal Environment Research; permafrost
• Online Access: https://hal-insu.archives-ouvertes.fr/insu-00421225

International audience This study evaluates the climatic impact of possible future changes in high-latitude inland water surface (IWS) area. We carried out a set of climate-change experiments with an atmospheric general circulation model in which different scenarios of future changes of IWS extent were prescribed. The simulations are based on the SRES-Al B greenhouse gas emission scenario and represent the transient climatic state at the end of the 21st century. Our results indicate that the impact of a reduction in IWS extent depends on the season considered: the total disappearance of IWS would lead to cooling during cold seasons and to warming in summer. In the annual mean, the cooling effect would be dominant. In an experiment in which the future change of prescribed IWS extent is prescribed as a function of the simulated changes of permafrost extent, we find that these changes are self-consistent in the sense that their effects on the simulated temperature and precipitation patterns would not be contradictory to the underlying scenario of changes in IWS extent. In this "best guess" simulation, the projected changes in IWS extent would reduce future near-surface warming over large parts of northern Eurasia by about 20% during the cold season, while the impact in North America and during summer is less clear. As a whole, the direct climatic impact of future IWS changes is likely to be moderate.