Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps
International audience In mountainous regions, global warming will likely affect the frequency and magnitude of geomorphic processes. This is also the case for rockfall, one of the most common mass movements on steep slopes. Rainfall, snowmelt, or freeze-thaw cycles are the main drivers of rockfall...
Published in: | Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment |
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Online Access: | https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03790287 https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333221107624 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-03790287v1 2023-05-15T17:57:20+02:00 Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps Mainieri, Robin Eckert, Nicolas Corona, Christophe Lopez-Saez, Jerome Stoffel, Markus Bourrier, Franck Ecosystèmes montagnards (UR EMGR) Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institute for Environmental Sciences Geneva (ISE) Université de Genève = University of Geneva (UNIGE) Dendrolab.ch Bern Institute of Geological Sciences Bern University of Bern-University of Bern 2022-09-28 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03790287 https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333221107624 en eng HAL CCSD SAGE Publications info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1177/03091333221107624 hal-03790287 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03790287 doi:10.1177/03091333221107624 ISSN: 0309-1333 Progress in Physical Geography https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03790287 Progress in Physical Geography, 2022, pp.030913332211076. ⟨10.1177/03091333221107624⟩ [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2022 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333221107624 2023-03-08T01:24:12Z International audience In mountainous regions, global warming will likely affect the frequency and magnitude of geomorphic processes. This is also the case for rockfall, one of the most common mass movements on steep slopes. Rainfall, snowmelt, or freeze-thaw cycles are the main drivers of rockfall activity, rockfall hazards are thus generally thought to become more relevant in a context of climate change. At high elevations, unequivocal relationships have been found between increased rockfall activity, permafrost thawing and global warming. By contrast, below the permafrost limit, studies are scarcer. They mostly rely on short or incomplete rockfall records, and have so far failed to identify climatically induced trends in rockfall records. Here, using a dendrogeomorphic approach, we develop two continuous 60-year long chronologies of rockfall activity in the Vercors and Diois massifs (French Alps); both sites are located clearly below the permafrost limit. Uncertainties related to the decreasing number of trees available back in time were quantified based on a detailed mapping of trees covering the slope across time. Significant multiple regression models with reconstructed rockfalls as predictors and local changes in climatic conditions since 1959 extracted from the SAFRAN reanalysis dataset as predictants were fitted to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at both sites. In the Vercors massif, the strong increase in reconstructed rockfall can be ascribed to the recolonization of the forest stand and the over-representation of young trees; changes that are observed should not therefore be ascribed to climatic fluctuations. In the Diois massif, we identify annual precipitation totals and mean temperatures as statistically significant drivers of rockfall activity but no significant increasing trend was identified in the reconstruction. All in all, despite the stringency of our approach, we cannot therefore confirm that rockfall hazard will increase as a result of global ... Article in Journal/Newspaper permafrost Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment 030913332211076 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering Mainieri, Robin Eckert, Nicolas Corona, Christophe Lopez-Saez, Jerome Stoffel, Markus Bourrier, Franck Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps |
topic_facet |
[SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering |
description |
International audience In mountainous regions, global warming will likely affect the frequency and magnitude of geomorphic processes. This is also the case for rockfall, one of the most common mass movements on steep slopes. Rainfall, snowmelt, or freeze-thaw cycles are the main drivers of rockfall activity, rockfall hazards are thus generally thought to become more relevant in a context of climate change. At high elevations, unequivocal relationships have been found between increased rockfall activity, permafrost thawing and global warming. By contrast, below the permafrost limit, studies are scarcer. They mostly rely on short or incomplete rockfall records, and have so far failed to identify climatically induced trends in rockfall records. Here, using a dendrogeomorphic approach, we develop two continuous 60-year long chronologies of rockfall activity in the Vercors and Diois massifs (French Alps); both sites are located clearly below the permafrost limit. Uncertainties related to the decreasing number of trees available back in time were quantified based on a detailed mapping of trees covering the slope across time. Significant multiple regression models with reconstructed rockfalls as predictors and local changes in climatic conditions since 1959 extracted from the SAFRAN reanalysis dataset as predictants were fitted to investigate the potential impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at both sites. In the Vercors massif, the strong increase in reconstructed rockfall can be ascribed to the recolonization of the forest stand and the over-representation of young trees; changes that are observed should not therefore be ascribed to climatic fluctuations. In the Diois massif, we identify annual precipitation totals and mean temperatures as statistically significant drivers of rockfall activity but no significant increasing trend was identified in the reconstruction. All in all, despite the stringency of our approach, we cannot therefore confirm that rockfall hazard will increase as a result of global ... |
author2 |
Ecosystèmes montagnards (UR EMGR) Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) Institute for Environmental Sciences Geneva (ISE) Université de Genève = University of Geneva (UNIGE) Dendrolab.ch Bern Institute of Geological Sciences Bern University of Bern-University of Bern |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mainieri, Robin Eckert, Nicolas Corona, Christophe Lopez-Saez, Jerome Stoffel, Markus Bourrier, Franck |
author_facet |
Mainieri, Robin Eckert, Nicolas Corona, Christophe Lopez-Saez, Jerome Stoffel, Markus Bourrier, Franck |
author_sort |
Mainieri, Robin |
title |
Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps |
title_short |
Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps |
title_full |
Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps |
title_fullStr |
Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps |
title_full_unstemmed |
Limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: Insights from two calcareous cliffs from the French Prealps |
title_sort |
limited impacts of global warming on rockfall activity at low elevations: insights from two calcareous cliffs from the french prealps |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03790287 https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333221107624 |
genre |
permafrost |
genre_facet |
permafrost |
op_source |
ISSN: 0309-1333 Progress in Physical Geography https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03790287 Progress in Physical Geography, 2022, pp.030913332211076. ⟨10.1177/03091333221107624⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1177/03091333221107624 hal-03790287 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-03790287 doi:10.1177/03091333221107624 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1177/03091333221107624 |
container_title |
Progress in Physical Geography: Earth and Environment |
container_start_page |
030913332211076 |
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1766165744781885440 |