Robust but weak winter atmospheric circulation response to future Arctic sea ice loss

• Published in: Nature Communications
• Main Authors: Smith, D., Eade, R., Andrews, M., Ayres, H., Clark, A., Chripko, S., Deser, C., Dunstone, N., García-Serrano, Javier, Gastineau, Guillaume, Graff, L., Hardiman, S., He, B., Hermanson, L., Jung, T., Knight, J., Levine, X., Magnusdottir, G., Manzini, E., Matei, D., Mori, M., Msadek, Rym, Ortega, Pablo, Peings, Y., Scaife, A., Screen, J., Seabrook, M., Semmler, T., Sigmond, M., Streffing, J., Sun, L., Walsh, A.
• Other Authors: Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC), United Kingdom Met Office Exeter, Department of Meteorology Reading, University of Reading (UOR), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique - CERFACS (CERFACS), National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR), Universitat de Barcelona (UB), Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Norwegian Meteorological Institute Oslo (MET), Institute of Atmospheric Physics Beijing (IAP), Chinese Academy of Sciences Beijing (CAS), Alfred Wegener Institute Potsdam, Alfred-Wegener-Institut, Helmholtz-Zentrum für Polar- und Meeresforschung (AWI), Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS), Department of Earth System Science Irvine (ESS), University of California Irvine (UC Irvine), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Max-Planck-Institut für Meteorologie (MPI-M), Max-Planck-Gesellschaft, Research Institute for Applied Mechanics Fukuoka (RIAM), Kyushu University, CERFACS Toulouse, Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), College of Engineering, Mathematics and Physical Sciences Exeter (EMPS), University of Exeter, Canadian Centre for Climate Modelling and Analysis (CCCma), Environment and Climate Change Canada, Department of Atmospheric Science Fort Collins, Colorado State University Fort Collins (CSU), European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016), European Project: 727862,APPLICATE
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2022
• Subjects: [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph]; Arctic; North Atlantic; North Atlantic oscillation; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03608281; https://hal.science/hal-03608281/document; https://hal.science/hal-03608281/file/s41467-022-28283-y.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-022-28283-y

International audience The possibility that Arctic sea ice loss weakens mid-latitude westerlies, promoting more severe cold winters, has sparked more than a decade of scientific debate, with apparent support from observations but inconclusive modelling evidence. Here we show that sixteen models contributing to the Polar Amplification Model Intercomparison Project simulate a weakening of mid-latitude westerlies in response to projected Arctic sea ice loss. We develop an emergent constraint based on eddy feedback, which is 1.2 to 3 times too weak in the models, suggesting that the real-world weakening lies towards the higher end of the model simulations. Still, the modelled response to Arctic sea ice loss is weak: the North Atlantic Oscillation response is similar in magnitude and offsets the projected response to increased greenhouse gases, but would only account for around 10% of variations in individual years. We further find that relationships between Arctic sea ice and atmospheric circulation have weakened recently in observations and are no longer inconsistent with those in models.