Decadal Predictions to Climate Services: How Understanding Climate Change in the Arctic can Support Climate Adaptation Decision-Making across the Northern Hemisphere

• Main Authors: Grist, Hannah, Ballester, Joan, Femke de Jong, M, Langehaug, Helene, Olsen, Steffen, Swingedouw, Didier
• Other Authors: Scottish Association for Marine Science (SAMS)
• Format: Other/Unknown Material
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; Arctic; Climate change
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03416200; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03416200/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-03416200/file/Grist_ArcticYearBook_2020.pdf

Contribution to the "Arctic Year Book" describing the way decadal climate predictions are produced and how they can be useful The Arctic is warming twice as fast as the rest of the world, but is intricately connected to it through oceanic and atmospheric circulation. Improved observational networks quantifying these connections and subsequent climate model development are enhancing our ability to describe, model, and predict Arctic climate change and its impact on northern hemisphere weather and climate, including their extremes. These developments have made skilful predictions from a sub-seasonal to a decadal timescale possible. Decadal prediction lies in the middle between short to medium range weather forecasts and global-scale climate change projections, and allows predictions of time-evolving regional climate conditions. These predictions are very relevant to the time period that many communities need in order to plan for the near future and beyond, where adaptation is possible and understandable for a wide range of sectors and new opportunities can be explored. Here, we talk about climate change in the Arctic, and the mechanisms by which it can influence the northern hemisphere weather and climate. We discuss how recent scientific work on understanding these mechanisms can increase predictive skill. We present case studies demonstrating the potential for these outputs to be translated into climate services across the region, providing specific and relevant information for businesses, communities and policy-makers on evolving future conditions and allowing dynamic adaptation. Finally, we look ahead to the next developments in this area, and discuss the scientific requirements for future progression.