Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems
Place: Oxford Publisher: Oxford Univ Press WOS:000582718700026 Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers ap...
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Online Access: | https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411058 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-03411058v1 2023-05-15T15:39:01+02:00 Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian Tromsø department (IMR) Institute of Marine Research Bergen (IMR) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2020 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411058 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 en eng HAL CCSD Oxford University Press (OUP) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 hal-03411058 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411058 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 ISSN: 1054-3139 EISSN: 1095-9289 ICES Journal of Marine Science https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411058 ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2020, 77 (4), pp.1573--1588. ⟨10.1093/icesjms/fsz173⟩ constraints recruitment marine ecosystems fisheries management uncertainty time comanagement chaos chaos theory community management complexity food-web dynamics nonlinear systems parametric management participatory modelling viability theory [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 2022-08-10T01:08:39Z Place: Oxford Publisher: Oxford Univ Press WOS:000582718700026 Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts easily grasped by all actors, because they are explicit about knowns and unknowns and because the interpretation of their results is simple without being prescriptive, they can be used in a context of participatory management. We propose that, three decades after the emergence of chaos theories, CaN can be a practical step to reconcile scientists and non-scientists around the modelling of structurally and dynamically complex natural systems, and significantly contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management. Article in Journal/Newspaper Barents Sea Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Barents Sea ICES Journal of Marine Science 77 4 1573 1588 |
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Open Polar |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
constraints recruitment marine ecosystems fisheries management uncertainty time comanagement chaos chaos theory community management complexity food-web dynamics nonlinear systems parametric management participatory modelling viability theory [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
constraints recruitment marine ecosystems fisheries management uncertainty time comanagement chaos chaos theory community management complexity food-web dynamics nonlinear systems parametric management participatory modelling viability theory [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
topic_facet |
constraints recruitment marine ecosystems fisheries management uncertainty time comanagement chaos chaos theory community management complexity food-web dynamics nonlinear systems parametric management participatory modelling viability theory [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
Place: Oxford Publisher: Oxford Univ Press WOS:000582718700026 Nearly 30 years ago, emerged the concept of deterministic chaos. With it came sensitivity to initial conditions, nonlinearities, and strange attractors. This constituted a paradigm shift that profoundly altered how numerical modellers approached dynamic systems. It also provided an opportunity to resolve a situation of mutual misunderstanding between scientists and non-scientists about uncertainties and predictability in natural systems. Our proposition is that this issue can be addressed in an original way which involves modelling based on the principles of chance and necessity (CaN). We outline the conceptual and mathematical principles of CaN models and present an application of the model to the Barents Sea food-web. Because CaN models rely on concepts easily grasped by all actors, because they are explicit about knowns and unknowns and because the interpretation of their results is simple without being prescriptive, they can be used in a context of participatory management. We propose that, three decades after the emergence of chaos theories, CaN can be a practical step to reconcile scientists and non-scientists around the modelling of structurally and dynamically complex natural systems, and significantly contribute to ecosystem-based fisheries management. |
author2 |
Tromsø department (IMR) Institute of Marine Research Bergen (IMR) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian |
author_facet |
Planque, Benjamin Mullon, Christian |
author_sort |
Planque, Benjamin |
title |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_short |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_full |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_fullStr |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
title_sort |
modelling chance and necessity in natural systems |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411058 https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 |
geographic |
Barents Sea |
geographic_facet |
Barents Sea |
genre |
Barents Sea |
genre_facet |
Barents Sea |
op_source |
ISSN: 1054-3139 EISSN: 1095-9289 ICES Journal of Marine Science https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411058 ICES Journal of Marine Science, Oxford University Press (OUP), 2020, 77 (4), pp.1573--1588. ⟨10.1093/icesjms/fsz173⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 hal-03411058 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-03411058 doi:10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1093/icesjms/fsz173 |
container_title |
ICES Journal of Marine Science |
container_volume |
77 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1573 |
op_container_end_page |
1588 |
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1766370473062432768 |