Sensitivity of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation and climate to tropical Indian Ocean warming

• Published in: Climate Dynamics
• Main Authors: Ferster, Brady, Fedorov, Alexey V., Mignot, Juliette, Guilyardi, Eric
• Other Authors: Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM), Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité), Yale University New Haven, NCAS-Climate Cambridge, Department of Chemistry Cambridge, UK, University of Cambridge UK (CAM)-University of Cambridge UK (CAM), ANR-18-MPGA-0001,ARCHANGE,Changement climatique et Arctique et circulation océanique globale(2018), European Project: 776613,Fighting and adapting to climate change,H2020-EU.3.5.1,EUCP(2017)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: AMOC; North Atlantic; Teleconnections; North Atlantic Oscillation; Indian ocean warming; Arctic sea ice; [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology; Arctic; Indian; Laplace; Climate change; Labrador Sea; Nordic Seas; North Atlantic oscillation; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03256107; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03256107/document; https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-03256107/file/Ferster%20et%20al.%20-%202021%20-%20Sensitivity%20of%20the%20Atlantic%20meridional%20overturning.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-021-05813-w

International audience A salient feature of anthropogenic climate change is the enhanced warming of the tropical Indian Ocean (TIO) relative to the tropics. Recent studies show that this warming can remotely modulate the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC). Motivated by these results, we systematically study the sensitivity of the AMOC and Atlantic climate to changes in TIO temperature using the latest coupled climate model from the Institut Pierre Simon Laplace (IPSL-CM6A-LR). Ensemble experiments nudging the TIO surface temperatures by-2°C,-1°C, +1°C, and +2°C are conducted. Within a few years after the forcing is imposed, different atmospheric teleconnections begin to drive the AMOC "fast" and "slow" responses, yielding after 150 years an AMOC equilibrium sensitivity of about +9.4 Sv per 1°C of relative TIO warming. A water mass transformation analysis shows that the fast response to TIO warming (on decadal timescales) is largely driven by surface cooling in the Labrador Sea caused by an induced positive North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)-like mean pattern. By contrast, the slow response (on multi-decadal to centennial timescales) is driven by the gradual advection of positive salinity anomalies from the tropical Atlantic, which predominantly affect the Nordic Seas. The response is non-linear in that a TIO warming strengthens the AMOC through increase in Labrador Sea deep water formation, while a TIO cooling slows down the AMOC via sea ice expansion over the Nordic Seas deep-water formation region, ultimately leading to the AMOC shutdown in the-2ºC-TIO experiment. These results help understand the role of interbasin connections and AMOC drivers in a warming climate.