Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition
International audience This study uses observational and reanalysis datasets in 1980–2016 to show a close connection between a boreal autumn sea ice dipole in the Arctic Pacific sector and sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea (BS) during the following spring. The September–October Arctic Pacific sea...
Published in: | Journal of Climate |
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Main Authors: | , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2021
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03195861 https://hal.science/hal-03195861/document https://hal.science/hal-03195861/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Autumn%20Arctic%20Pacific%20Sea%20Ice%20Dipole%20as%20a%20Source%20of%20Predictability%20for%20Subsequent%20Spring%20Barents%20Sea%20Ice%20Condition.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-03195861v1 |
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openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
spellingShingle |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Frankignoul, Claude Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition |
topic_facet |
[PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] |
description |
International audience This study uses observational and reanalysis datasets in 1980–2016 to show a close connection between a boreal autumn sea ice dipole in the Arctic Pacific sector and sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea (BS) during the following spring. The September–October Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole variations are highly correlated with the subsequent April–May BS sea ice variations (r = 0.71). The strong connection between the regional sea ice variabilities across the Arctic uncovers a new source of predictability for spring BS sea ice prediction at 7-month lead time. A cross-validated linear regression prediction model using the Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole with 7-month lead time is demonstrated to have significant prediction skills with 0.54–0.85 anomaly correlation coefficients. The autumn sea ice dipole, manifested as sea ice retreat in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and expansion in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, is primarily forced by preceding atmospheric shortwave anomalies from late spring to early autumn. The spring BS sea ice increases are mostly driven by an ocean-to-sea ice heat flux reduction in preceding months, associated with reduced horizontal ocean heat transport into the BS. The dynamical linkage between the two regional sea ice anomalies is suggested to involve positive stratospheric polar cap anomalies during autumn and winter, with its center slowly moving toward Greenland. The migration of the stratospheric anomalies is followed in midwinter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the troposphere, leading to reduced ocean heat transport into the BS and sea ice extent increase. |
author2 |
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Frankignoul, Claude |
author_facet |
Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Frankignoul, Claude |
author_sort |
Liang, Yu-Chiao |
title |
Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition |
title_short |
Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition |
title_full |
Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition |
title_fullStr |
Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition |
title_full_unstemmed |
Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition |
title_sort |
autumn arctic pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring barents sea ice condition |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2021 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03195861 https://hal.science/hal-03195861/document https://hal.science/hal-03195861/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Autumn%20Arctic%20Pacific%20Sea%20Ice%20Dipole%20as%20a%20Source%20of%20Predictability%20for%20Subsequent%20Spring%20Barents%20Sea%20Ice%20Condition.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) |
geographic |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Midwinter Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Midwinter Pacific |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Chukchi Greenland laptev North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Chukchi Greenland laptev North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03195861 Journal of Climate, 2021, 34 (2), pp.787-804. ⟨10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1⟩ https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/2/JCLI-D-20-0172.1.xml |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action hal-03195861 https://hal.science/hal-03195861 https://hal.science/hal-03195861/document https://hal.science/hal-03195861/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Autumn%20Arctic%20Pacific%20Sea%20Ice%20Dipole%20as%20a%20Source%20of%20Predictability%20for%20Subsequent%20Spring%20Barents%20Sea%20Ice%20Condition.pdf doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 WOS: 000615485000021 |
op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
34 |
container_issue |
2 |
container_start_page |
787 |
op_container_end_page |
804 |
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1766302164771143680 |
spelling |
ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-03195861v1 2023-05-15T14:28:02+02:00 Autumn Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole as a source of predictability for subsequent spring Barents Sea ice condition Liang, Yu-Chiao Kwon, Young-Oh Frankignoul, Claude Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Océan et variabilité du climat (VARCLIM) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) European Project: 727852,Blue-Action(2016) 2021-01 https://hal.science/hal-03195861 https://hal.science/hal-03195861/document https://hal.science/hal-03195861/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Autumn%20Arctic%20Pacific%20Sea%20Ice%20Dipole%20as%20a%20Source%20of%20Predictability%20for%20Subsequent%20Spring%20Barents%20Sea%20Ice%20Condition.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//727852/EU/Blue-Action: Arctic impact on weather and climat/Blue-Action hal-03195861 https://hal.science/hal-03195861 https://hal.science/hal-03195861/document https://hal.science/hal-03195861/file/%5B15200442%20-%20Journal%20of%20Climate%5D%20Autumn%20Arctic%20Pacific%20Sea%20Ice%20Dipole%20as%20a%20Source%20of%20Predictability%20for%20Subsequent%20Spring%20Barents%20Sea%20Ice%20Condition.pdf doi:10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 WOS: 000615485000021 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03195861 Journal of Climate, 2021, 34 (2), pp.787-804. ⟨10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1⟩ https://journals.ametsoc.org/view/journals/clim/34/2/JCLI-D-20-0172.1.xml [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2021 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1175/jcli-d-20-0172.1 2023-01-18T00:23:31Z International audience This study uses observational and reanalysis datasets in 1980–2016 to show a close connection between a boreal autumn sea ice dipole in the Arctic Pacific sector and sea ice anomalies in the Barents Sea (BS) during the following spring. The September–October Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole variations are highly correlated with the subsequent April–May BS sea ice variations (r = 0.71). The strong connection between the regional sea ice variabilities across the Arctic uncovers a new source of predictability for spring BS sea ice prediction at 7-month lead time. A cross-validated linear regression prediction model using the Arctic Pacific sea ice dipole with 7-month lead time is demonstrated to have significant prediction skills with 0.54–0.85 anomaly correlation coefficients. The autumn sea ice dipole, manifested as sea ice retreat in the Beaufort and Chukchi Seas and expansion in the East Siberian and Laptev Seas, is primarily forced by preceding atmospheric shortwave anomalies from late spring to early autumn. The spring BS sea ice increases are mostly driven by an ocean-to-sea ice heat flux reduction in preceding months, associated with reduced horizontal ocean heat transport into the BS. The dynamical linkage between the two regional sea ice anomalies is suggested to involve positive stratospheric polar cap anomalies during autumn and winter, with its center slowly moving toward Greenland. The migration of the stratospheric anomalies is followed in midwinter by a negative North Atlantic Oscillation–like pattern in the troposphere, leading to reduced ocean heat transport into the BS and sea ice extent increase. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Barents Sea Chukchi Greenland laptev North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Arctic Barents Sea Greenland Midwinter ENVELOPE(139.931,139.931,-66.690,-66.690) Pacific Journal of Climate 34 2 787 804 |