A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World
International audience Considerable uncertainties remain about the expected changes of ENSO and associated teleconnectivity as the climate is warming. Two ensembles of pacemaker experiments using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model are designed in a perfect model framework to contrast ENSO-forced teleconnect...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03093361 https://hal.science/hal-03093361/document https://hal.science/hal-03093361/file/%255B15200442%2520-%2520Journal%2520of%2520Climate%255D%2520A%2520Modeling-%2520and%2520Process-Oriented%2520Study%2520to%2520Investigate%2520the%2520Projected%2520Change%2520of%2520ENSO-Forced%2520Wintertime%2520Teleconnectivity%2520in%2520a%2520Warmer%2520World.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-03093361v1 2023-05-15T17:28:35+02:00 A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World Drouard, Marie Cassou, Christophe Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes Toulouse (CECI) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique - CERFACS (CERFACS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2019 https://hal.science/hal-03093361 https://hal.science/hal-03093361/document https://hal.science/hal-03093361/file/%255B15200442%2520-%2520Journal%2520of%2520Climate%255D%2520A%2520Modeling-%2520and%2520Process-Oriented%2520Study%2520to%2520Investigate%2520the%2520Projected%2520Change%2520of%2520ENSO-Forced%2520Wintertime%2520Teleconnectivity%2520in%2520a%2520Warmer%2520World.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 en eng HAL CCSD American Meteorological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 hal-03093361 https://hal.science/hal-03093361 https://hal.science/hal-03093361/document https://hal.science/hal-03093361/file/%255B15200442%2520-%2520Journal%2520of%2520Climate%255D%2520A%2520Modeling-%2520and%2520Process-Oriented%2520Study%2520to%2520Investigate%2520the%2520Projected%2520Change%2520of%2520ENSO-Forced%2520Wintertime%2520Teleconnectivity%2520in%2520a%2520Warmer%2520World.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03093361 Journal of Climate, 2019, 32 (23), pp.8047-8068. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1⟩ ENSO Teleconnections Climate change [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 2023-02-08T04:58:17Z International audience Considerable uncertainties remain about the expected changes of ENSO and associated teleconnectivity as the climate is warming. Two ensembles of pacemaker experiments using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model are designed in a perfect model framework to contrast ENSO-forced teleconnectivity between the preindustrial period versus a warmer background state (obtained from a long stabilized simulation under late-twenty-firstcentury RCP8.5 constant forcing). The most notable sensitivity to the mean background state is found over the North Atlantic, where the ENSO-NAO teleconnection is considerably reinforced in a warmer world. We attribute this change to (i) a stronger and eastward-extended mean upper-level jet over the North Pacific, (ii) an eastward-shifted ENSO teleconnection over the North Pacific, and (iii) an equatorward-shifted and reinforced mean jet over the North Atlantic. These altogether act as a more efficient waveguide, leading to a better penetration of synoptic storms coming from the Pacific into the Atlantic. This downstream penetration into the North Atlantic basin forces more systematically the NAO through wave breaking. The reinforcement in the teleconnection is asymmetrical with respect to the ENSO phase and is mainly sensitive to La Niña events. Even though the Pacific jet tends to retract westward and move northward during cold events, mean changes are such that both Pacific and Atlantic jets remain connected in a warmer climate by contrast to the preindustrial period, thus ensuring preferred anticyclonic wave breaking downstream over the North Atlantic leading ultimately to NAO1 events. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Pacific Journal of Climate 32 23 8047 8068 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
ENSO Teleconnections Climate change [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
spellingShingle |
ENSO Teleconnections Climate change [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere Drouard, Marie Cassou, Christophe A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World |
topic_facet |
ENSO Teleconnections Climate change [SDU.STU.CL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Climatology [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean Atmosphere |
description |
International audience Considerable uncertainties remain about the expected changes of ENSO and associated teleconnectivity as the climate is warming. Two ensembles of pacemaker experiments using the CNRM-CM5 coupled model are designed in a perfect model framework to contrast ENSO-forced teleconnectivity between the preindustrial period versus a warmer background state (obtained from a long stabilized simulation under late-twenty-firstcentury RCP8.5 constant forcing). The most notable sensitivity to the mean background state is found over the North Atlantic, where the ENSO-NAO teleconnection is considerably reinforced in a warmer world. We attribute this change to (i) a stronger and eastward-extended mean upper-level jet over the North Pacific, (ii) an eastward-shifted ENSO teleconnection over the North Pacific, and (iii) an equatorward-shifted and reinforced mean jet over the North Atlantic. These altogether act as a more efficient waveguide, leading to a better penetration of synoptic storms coming from the Pacific into the Atlantic. This downstream penetration into the North Atlantic basin forces more systematically the NAO through wave breaking. The reinforcement in the teleconnection is asymmetrical with respect to the ENSO phase and is mainly sensitive to La Niña events. Even though the Pacific jet tends to retract westward and move northward during cold events, mean changes are such that both Pacific and Atlantic jets remain connected in a warmer climate by contrast to the preindustrial period, thus ensuring preferred anticyclonic wave breaking downstream over the North Atlantic leading ultimately to NAO1 events. |
author2 |
Climat, Environnement, Couplages et Incertitudes Toulouse (CECI) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique - CERFACS (CERFACS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Drouard, Marie Cassou, Christophe |
author_facet |
Drouard, Marie Cassou, Christophe |
author_sort |
Drouard, Marie |
title |
A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World |
title_short |
A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World |
title_full |
A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World |
title_fullStr |
A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Modeling- and Process-Oriented Study to Investigate the Projected Change of ENSO-Forced Wintertime Teleconnectivity in a Warmer World |
title_sort |
modeling- and process-oriented study to investigate the projected change of enso-forced wintertime teleconnectivity in a warmer world |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03093361 https://hal.science/hal-03093361/document https://hal.science/hal-03093361/file/%255B15200442%2520-%2520Journal%2520of%2520Climate%255D%2520A%2520Modeling-%2520and%2520Process-Oriented%2520Study%2520to%2520Investigate%2520the%2520Projected%2520Change%2520of%2520ENSO-Forced%2520Wintertime%2520Teleconnectivity%2520in%2520a%2520Warmer%2520World.pdf https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0894-8755 EISSN: 1520-0442 Journal of Climate https://hal.science/hal-03093361 Journal of Climate, 2019, 32 (23), pp.8047-8068. ⟨10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 hal-03093361 https://hal.science/hal-03093361 https://hal.science/hal-03093361/document https://hal.science/hal-03093361/file/%255B15200442%2520-%2520Journal%2520of%2520Climate%255D%2520A%2520Modeling-%2520and%2520Process-Oriented%2520Study%2520to%2520Investigate%2520the%2520Projected%2520Change%2520of%2520ENSO-Forced%2520Wintertime%2520Teleconnectivity%2520in%2520a%2520Warmer%2520World.pdf doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1175/JCLI-D-18-0803.1 |
container_title |
Journal of Climate |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
23 |
container_start_page |
8047 |
op_container_end_page |
8068 |
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1766121348271177728 |