Meeting Paris agreement objectives will temper seabird winter distribution shifts in the North Atlantic Ocean

• Published in: Global Change Biology
• Main Authors: Clairbaux, M., Cheung, W., Mathewson, P., Porter, W., Courbin, N., Fort, Jérôme, Strøm, H., Moe, B., Fauchald, P., Descamps, S., Helgason, H., Bråthen, V.S., Merkel, B., Anker‐nilssen, T., Bringsvor, I.S., Chastel, O., Christensen‐dalsgaard, S., Danielsen, J., Daunt, F., Dehnhard, N., Erikstad, K.E., Ezhov, A., Gavrilo, M., Krasnov, Y., Langset, M., Lorentsen, S.H., Newell, M., Olsen, B., Reiertsen, T.K., Systad, G., Thórarinsson, T.L., Baran, M., Diamond, T., Fayet, A.L., Fitzsimmons, M.G, Frederiksen, M., Gilchrist, H.G., Guilford, T., Huffeldt, N.P., Jessopp, M., Johansen, K.L., Kouwenberg, A.L., Linnebjerg, J.F, Mcfarlane Tranquilla, L., Mallory, M., Merkel, F.R., Montevecchi, W., Mosbech, A., Petersen, A., Grémillet, David
• Other Authors: Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE), Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE)-Institut Agro - Montpellier SupAgro, Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro)-Institut national d'enseignement supérieur pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (Institut Agro), LIttoral ENvironnement et Sociétés (LIENSs), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Percy FitzPatrick Institute, University of Cape Town
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2021
• Subjects: DBEM; energy requirement; mechanistic habitat selection; NicheMapperTM; Paris agreement; RCP scenarios; seabird distributions; seabird migration; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio]; Alle alle; fratercula; Fratercula arctica; North Atlantic; rissa tridactyla; Uria aalge; Uria lomvia; uria
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-03088572; https://hal.science/hal-03088572/document; https://hal.science/hal-03088572/file/CGCB27_2021.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.15497

International audience We explored the implications of reaching the Paris Agreement Objective of limiting global warming to <2°C for the future winter distribution of the North Atlantic sea-bird community. We predicted and quantified current and future winter habitats of five North Atlantic Ocean seabird species (Alle alle, Fratercula arctica, Uria aalge, Uria lomvia and Rissa tridactyla) using tracking data for ~1500 individuals through resource selection functions based on mechanistic modeling of seabird energy requirements, and a dynamic bioclimate envelope model of seabird prey. Future winter distributions were predicted to shift with climate change, especially when global warming exceed 2°C under a “no mitigation” scenario, modifying seabird wintering hotspots in the North Atlantic Ocean. Our findings suggest that meeting Paris agreement objectives will limit changes in seabird selected habitat location and size in the North Atlantic Ocean during the 21st century. We thereby provide key information for the design of adaptive marine-protected areas in a changing ocean