Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems
International audience Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five...
Published in: | Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2020
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-03051699 https://hal.science/hal-03051699/document https://hal.science/hal-03051699/file/hermanson_2020_JGR_volcanoes_decadal_prediction.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031739 |
id |
ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-03051699v1 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-03051699v1 2023-05-15T17:33:43+02:00 Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems Hermanson, Leon Bilbao, Roberto Dunstone, Nick Ménégoz, Martin Ortega, Pablo Pohlmann, Holger Robson, Jon, Smith, Doug, Strand, Gary Timmreck, Claudia Yeager, Steve Danabasoglu, Gokhan Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) 2020-05-04 https://hal.science/hal-03051699 https://hal.science/hal-03051699/document https://hal.science/hal-03051699/file/hermanson_2020_JGR_volcanoes_decadal_prediction.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031739 en eng HAL CCSD American Geophysical Union info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019jd031739 hal-03051699 https://hal.science/hal-03051699 https://hal.science/hal-03051699/document https://hal.science/hal-03051699/file/hermanson_2020_JGR_volcanoes_decadal_prediction.pdf doi:10.1029/2019jd031739 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-03051699 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2020, 125 (9), ⟨10.1029/2019jd031739⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031739 2023-03-01T02:49:38Z International audience Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Pacific Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres 125 9 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences Hermanson, Leon Bilbao, Roberto Dunstone, Nick Ménégoz, Martin Ortega, Pablo Pohlmann, Holger Robson, Jon, Smith, Doug, Strand, Gary Timmreck, Claudia Yeager, Steve Danabasoglu, Gokhan Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Major tropical volcanic eruptions have a large impact on climate, but there have only been three major eruptions during the recent relatively well-observed period. Models are therefore an important tool to understand and predict the impacts of an eruption. This study uses five state-of-the-art decadal prediction systems that have been initialized with the observed state before volcanic aerosols are introduced. The impact of the volcanic aerosols is found by subtracting the results of a reference experiment where the volcanic aerosols are omitted. We look for the robust impact across models and volcanoes by combining all the experiments, which helps reveal a signal even if it is weak in the models. The models used in this study simulate realistic levels of warming in the stratosphere, but zonal winds are weaker than the observations. As a consequence, models can produce a pattern similar to the North Atlantic Oscillation in the first winter following the eruption, but the response and impact on surface temperatures are weaker than in observations. Reproducing the pattern, but not the amplitude, may be related to a known model error. There are also impacts in the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. This work contributes toward improving the interpretation of decadal predictions in the case of a future large tropical volcanic eruption. |
author2 |
Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP ) Université Grenoble Alpes (UGA) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hermanson, Leon Bilbao, Roberto Dunstone, Nick Ménégoz, Martin Ortega, Pablo Pohlmann, Holger Robson, Jon, Smith, Doug, Strand, Gary Timmreck, Claudia Yeager, Steve Danabasoglu, Gokhan |
author_facet |
Hermanson, Leon Bilbao, Roberto Dunstone, Nick Ménégoz, Martin Ortega, Pablo Pohlmann, Holger Robson, Jon, Smith, Doug, Strand, Gary Timmreck, Claudia Yeager, Steve Danabasoglu, Gokhan |
author_sort |
Hermanson, Leon |
title |
Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems |
title_short |
Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems |
title_full |
Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems |
title_fullStr |
Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems |
title_full_unstemmed |
Robust Multiyear Climate Impacts of Volcanic Eruptions in Decadal Prediction Systems |
title_sort |
robust multiyear climate impacts of volcanic eruptions in decadal prediction systems |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-03051699 https://hal.science/hal-03051699/document https://hal.science/hal-03051699/file/hermanson_2020_JGR_volcanoes_decadal_prediction.pdf https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031739 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 2169-897X EISSN: 2169-8996 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres https://hal.science/hal-03051699 Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 2020, 125 (9), ⟨10.1029/2019jd031739⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1029/2019jd031739 hal-03051699 https://hal.science/hal-03051699 https://hal.science/hal-03051699/document https://hal.science/hal-03051699/file/hermanson_2020_JGR_volcanoes_decadal_prediction.pdf doi:10.1029/2019jd031739 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2019jd031739 |
container_title |
Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres |
container_volume |
125 |
container_issue |
9 |
_version_ |
1766132316258697216 |