A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes
International audience A dynamical-system approach is proposed to describe the relationship between precipitation and a chosen predictor. This is done by constructing a two dimensional phase space spanned by predictor and predictant. This study uses two sounding data sets from the Tropical Western P...
Published in: | Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02985704 https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/document https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/file/tellus.pdf https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-02985704v2 2023-05-15T17:29:11+02:00 A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes Yano, Jun-Ichi Ambaum, Maarten, Dacre, Helen, Manzato, Agostino Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2020-11-02 https://hal.science/hal-02985704 https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/document https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/file/tellus.pdf https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 en eng HAL CCSD Co-Action Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 hal-02985704 https://hal.science/hal-02985704 https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/document https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/file/tellus.pdf doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0280-6495 EISSN: 1600-0870 Tellus A https://hal.science/hal-02985704 Tellus A, 2020, ⟨10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939⟩ dynamical system precipitation column-integrated water vapor CAPE empirical forecast discharge-recharge [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2020 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 2023-02-22T04:25:55Z International audience A dynamical-system approach is proposed to describe the relationship between precipitation and a chosen predictor. This is done by constructing a two dimensional phase space spanned by predictor and predictant. This study uses two sounding data sets from the Tropical Western Pacific and Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) over NorthEast Italy as representatives of the tropics and midlatitudes, in addition to a basin-scale average over the winter-period North Atlantic from global re-analysis data. In contrast to conventional correlationbased approaches, the proposed approach depicts periodic cycles, as well as discharge-recharge cycles as its nonlinear extension. Discharge-recharge cycles for tropical convection are identified by using both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the column-integrated water vapor (CIW) as predictors, as well as the baroclinicity for the winter-period North-Atlantic rain. On the other hand, the midlatitude rain, as seen over FVG as well as the winter-period North Atlantic, does not constitute a well-defined periodic cycle either with CAPE or CIW as a predictor. The inferred phase-space trajectories are more deterministic at peripheries of dense data areas rather than at a middle in the phase space. Data-dense areas in phase space, where traditional approaches primarily focus, are associated with more prediction uncertainties in our analysis due to more phase-velocity fluctuations. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Pacific Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography 72 1 1847939 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
dynamical system precipitation column-integrated water vapor CAPE empirical forecast discharge-recharge [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
dynamical system precipitation column-integrated water vapor CAPE empirical forecast discharge-recharge [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Yano, Jun-Ichi Ambaum, Maarten, Dacre, Helen, Manzato, Agostino A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes |
topic_facet |
dynamical system precipitation column-integrated water vapor CAPE empirical forecast discharge-recharge [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience A dynamical-system approach is proposed to describe the relationship between precipitation and a chosen predictor. This is done by constructing a two dimensional phase space spanned by predictor and predictant. This study uses two sounding data sets from the Tropical Western Pacific and Friuli Venezia Giulia (FVG) over NorthEast Italy as representatives of the tropics and midlatitudes, in addition to a basin-scale average over the winter-period North Atlantic from global re-analysis data. In contrast to conventional correlationbased approaches, the proposed approach depicts periodic cycles, as well as discharge-recharge cycles as its nonlinear extension. Discharge-recharge cycles for tropical convection are identified by using both the convective available potential energy (CAPE) and the column-integrated water vapor (CIW) as predictors, as well as the baroclinicity for the winter-period North-Atlantic rain. On the other hand, the midlatitude rain, as seen over FVG as well as the winter-period North Atlantic, does not constitute a well-defined periodic cycle either with CAPE or CIW as a predictor. The inferred phase-space trajectories are more deterministic at peripheries of dense data areas rather than at a middle in the phase space. Data-dense areas in phase space, where traditional approaches primarily focus, are associated with more prediction uncertainties in our analysis due to more phase-velocity fluctuations. |
author2 |
Centre national de recherches météorologiques (CNRM) Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Yano, Jun-Ichi Ambaum, Maarten, Dacre, Helen, Manzato, Agostino |
author_facet |
Yano, Jun-Ichi Ambaum, Maarten, Dacre, Helen, Manzato, Agostino |
author_sort |
Yano, Jun-Ichi |
title |
A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes |
title_short |
A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes |
title_full |
A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes |
title_fullStr |
A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes |
title_full_unstemmed |
A Dynamical-System Description of Precipitation over The Tropics and the Midlatitudes |
title_sort |
dynamical-system description of precipitation over the tropics and the midlatitudes |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02985704 https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/document https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/file/tellus.pdf https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 |
geographic |
Pacific |
geographic_facet |
Pacific |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0280-6495 EISSN: 1600-0870 Tellus A https://hal.science/hal-02985704 Tellus A, 2020, ⟨10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 hal-02985704 https://hal.science/hal-02985704 https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/document https://hal.science/hal-02985704v2/file/tellus.pdf doi:10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1080/16000870.2020.1847939 |
container_title |
Tellus A: Dynamic Meteorology and Oceanography |
container_volume |
72 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
1847939 |
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1766122817623949312 |