Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach
International audience Changes in mean sea level (MSL) are a major, but not the unique, cause of changes in high-percentile sea levels (HSL), e.g. the annual 99.9th quantile of sea level (among other factors, climate variability may also have huge influence). To unravel the respective influence of e...
Published in: | Environmental Research Letters |
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/file/hal-02380692.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-02380692v1 2023-05-15T17:32:02+02:00 Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) 2019 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/file/hal-02380692.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd hal-02380692 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/file/hal-02380692.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2019, 14, ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd⟩ climate indices NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Kalman-filter mean sea level extremes Bayesian structure time series model EXTENSION [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd 2022-07-26T23:05:22Z International audience Changes in mean sea level (MSL) are a major, but not the unique, cause of changes in high-percentile sea levels (HSL), e.g. the annual 99.9th quantile of sea level (among other factors, climate variability may also have huge influence). To unravel the respective influence of each contributor, we propose to use structural time series models considering six major climate indices (CI) (Artic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, Nino 1 + 2 and Nino 3.4) as well as a reconstruction of MSL. The method is applied to eight century-long tide gauges across the world (Brest (France), Newlyn (UK), Cuxhaven (Germany), Stockholm (Sweden), Gedser (Danemark), Halifax (Canada), San Francisco (US), and Honolulu (US)). The treatment within a Bayesian setting enables to derive an importance indicator, which measures how often the considered driver is included in the model. The application to the eight tide gauges outlines that MSL signal is a strong driver (except for Gedser), but is not unique. In particular, the influence of Artic Oscillation index at Cuxhaven, Stockholm and Halifax, and of Nino Sea Surface Temperature index 1 + 2 at San Francisco appear to be very strong as well. Asimilar analysis was conducted by restricting the time period of interest to the 1st part of the 20th century. Over this period, we show that the MSL dominance is lower, whereas an ensemble of CI contribute to a large part to HSL time evolution as well. The proposed setting is flexible and could be applied to incorporate any alternative predictive time series such as river discharge, tidal constituents or vertical ground motions where relevant. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Canada Environmental Research Letters 14 1 014008 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
climate indices NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Kalman-filter mean sea level extremes Bayesian structure time series model EXTENSION [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology |
spellingShingle |
climate indices NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Kalman-filter mean sea level extremes Bayesian structure time series model EXTENSION [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach |
topic_facet |
climate indices NORTH-ATLANTIC OSCILLATION Kalman-filter mean sea level extremes Bayesian structure time series model EXTENSION [SDU.STU.AG]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Applied geology |
description |
International audience Changes in mean sea level (MSL) are a major, but not the unique, cause of changes in high-percentile sea levels (HSL), e.g. the annual 99.9th quantile of sea level (among other factors, climate variability may also have huge influence). To unravel the respective influence of each contributor, we propose to use structural time series models considering six major climate indices (CI) (Artic Oscillation, North Atlantic Oscillation, Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation, Southern Oscillation Index, Nino 1 + 2 and Nino 3.4) as well as a reconstruction of MSL. The method is applied to eight century-long tide gauges across the world (Brest (France), Newlyn (UK), Cuxhaven (Germany), Stockholm (Sweden), Gedser (Danemark), Halifax (Canada), San Francisco (US), and Honolulu (US)). The treatment within a Bayesian setting enables to derive an importance indicator, which measures how often the considered driver is included in the model. The application to the eight tide gauges outlines that MSL signal is a strong driver (except for Gedser), but is not unique. In particular, the influence of Artic Oscillation index at Cuxhaven, Stockholm and Halifax, and of Nino Sea Surface Temperature index 1 + 2 at San Francisco appear to be very strong as well. Asimilar analysis was conducted by restricting the time period of interest to the 1st part of the 20th century. Over this period, we show that the MSL dominance is lower, whereas an ensemble of CI contribute to a large part to HSL time evolution as well. The proposed setting is flexible and could be applied to incorporate any alternative predictive time series such as river discharge, tidal constituents or vertical ground motions where relevant. |
author2 |
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri |
author_facet |
Rohmer, Jeremy Le Cozannet, Gonéri |
author_sort |
Rohmer, Jeremy |
title |
Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach |
title_short |
Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach |
title_full |
Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach |
title_fullStr |
Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a Bayesian statistical approach |
title_sort |
dominance of the mean sea level in the high-percentile sea levels time evolution with respect to large-scale climate variability: a bayesian statistical approach |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/file/hal-02380692.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd |
geographic |
Canada |
geographic_facet |
Canada |
genre |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2019, 14, ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd hal-02380692 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02380692/file/hal-02380692.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aaf0cd |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
14 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014008 |
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1766129962508615680 |