The emperor penguin - Vulnerable to projected rates of warming and sea ice loss

• Published in: Biological Conservation
• Main Authors: Trathan, Philip, Wienecke, Barbara, Barbraud, Christophe, Jenouvrier, Stéphanie, Kooyman, Gerald, Le Bohec, Céline, Ainley, David, Ancel, André, Zitterbart, Daniel, Chown, Steven, Larue, Michelle, Cristofari, Robin, Younger, Jane, Clucas, Gemma, Bost, Charles-André, Brown, Jennifer, Gillett, Harriet, Fretwell, Peter
• Other Authors: Natural Environment Research Council - British Antarctic Survey Cambridge, UK, British Antarctic Survey NERC UK, Australian Antarctic Division (AAD), Australian Government, Department of the Environment and Energy, Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC), La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE), Scholander Hall, Scripps Institution of Oceanography CA, USA, Scripps Institution of Oceanography (SIO - UC San Diego), University of California San Diego (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC)-University of California San Diego (UC San Diego), University of California (UC)-University of California (UC), Département Ecologie, Physiologie et Ethologie (DEPE-IPHC), Institut Pluridisciplinaire Hubert Curien (IPHC), Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université de Strasbourg (UNISTRA)-Institut National de Physique Nucléaire et de Physique des Particules du CNRS (IN2P3)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), H.T. Harvey & Associates Ecological Consultants USA, H.T. Harvey & Associates-H.T. Harvey and Associates Ecological Consultants USA, Applied Ocean Physics and Engineering MA, USA, Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI), School of Biological Sciences VIC, Australia, Monash University Australia, University of Minnesota MN, USA, University of Turku, Milner Centre for Evolution, University of Bath Bath, Cornell Lab of Ornithology New York, Cornell University New York, Information Services University of Cambridge, UK, University of Cambridge UK (CAM)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2020
• Subjects: Antarctic; Climate change; Aptenodyptes forsteri; IUCN Red List threat status; Protection; Conservation; [SDE]Environmental Sciences; The Antarctic; Antarc*; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-02317922; https://hal.science/hal-02317922/document; https://hal.science/hal-02317922/file/biol%20cons%202019.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.biocon.2019.108216

International audience We argue the need to improve climate change forecasting for ecology, and importantly, how to relate long-term projections to conservation. As an example, we discuss the need for effective management of one species, the emperor penguin, Aptenodyptes forsteri. This species is unique amongst birds in that its breeding habit is critically dependent upon seasonal fast ice. Here, we review its vulnerability to ongoing and projected climate change, given that sea ice is susceptible to changes in winds and temperatures. We consider published projections of future emperor penguin population status in response to changing environments. Furthermore, we evaluate the current IUCN Red List status for the species, and recommend that its status be changed to Vulnerable, based on different modelling projections of population decrease of ≥50% over the current century, and the specific traits of the species. We conclude that current conservation measures are inadequate to protect the species under future projected scenarios. Only a reduction in anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions will reduce threats to the emperor penguin from altered wind regimes, rising temperatures and melting sea ice; until such time, other conservation actions are necessary, including increased spatial protection at breeding sites and foraging locations. The designation of large-scale marine spatial protection across its range would benefit the species, particularly in areas that have a high probability of becoming future climate change refugia. We also recommend that the emperor penguin is listed by the Antarctic Treaty as an Antarctic Specially Protected Species, with development of a species Action Plan.