Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries
International audience Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspo...
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-02195005v1 2023-05-15T18:18:19+02:00 Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries Bathiany, Sebastian Dakos, Vasilis Scheffer, Marten Lenton, Timothy Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) University of Exeter 2018-05-02 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/file/eaar5809.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar5809 en eng HAL CCSD American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS) info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1126/sciadv.aar5809 hal-02195005 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/file/eaar5809.full.pdf doi:10.1126/sciadv.aar5809 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess CC-BY-NC ISSN: 2375-2548 Science Advances https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005 Science Advances , American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2018, 4 (5), pp.eaar5809. ⟨10.1126/sciadv.aar5809⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2018 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar5809 2022-10-04T23:42:06Z International audience Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate. Article in Journal/Newspaper Sea ice Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Science Advances 4 5 |
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Open Polar |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
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ftunivnantes |
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English |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Bathiany, Sebastian Dakos, Vasilis Scheffer, Marten Lenton, Timothy Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries |
topic_facet |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate. |
author2 |
Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) University of Exeter |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bathiany, Sebastian Dakos, Vasilis Scheffer, Marten Lenton, Timothy |
author_facet |
Bathiany, Sebastian Dakos, Vasilis Scheffer, Marten Lenton, Timothy |
author_sort |
Bathiany, Sebastian |
title |
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries |
title_short |
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries |
title_full |
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries |
title_fullStr |
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries |
title_full_unstemmed |
Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries |
title_sort |
climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2018 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/file/eaar5809.full.pdf https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar5809 |
genre |
Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 2375-2548 Science Advances https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005 Science Advances , American Association for the Advancement of Science (AAAS), 2018, 4 (5), pp.eaar5809. ⟨10.1126/sciadv.aar5809⟩ |
op_relation |
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op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar5809 |
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Science Advances |
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4 |
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5 |
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