Climate models predict increasing temperature variability in poor countries

• Published in: Science Advances
• Main Authors: Bathiany, Sebastian, Dakos, Vasilis, Scheffer, Marten, Lenton, Timothy
• Other Authors: Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM), Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE), Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), University of Exeter
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2018
• Subjects: [SDE]Environmental Sciences; [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-02195005/file/eaar5809.full.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1126/sciadv.aar5809

International audience Extreme events such as heat waves are among the most challenging aspects of climate change for societies. We show that climate models consistently project increases in temperature variability in tropical countries over the coming decades, with the Amazon as a particular hotspot of concern. During the season with maximum insolation, temperature variability increases by ~15% per degree of global warming in Amazonia and Southern Africa and by up to 10%°C−1 in the Sahel, India, and Southeast Asia. Mechanisms include drying soils and shifts in atmospheric structure. Outside the tropics, temperature variability is projected to decrease on average because of a reduced meridional temperature gradient and sea-ice loss. The countries that have contributed least to climate change, and are most vulnerable to extreme events, are projected to experience the strongest increase in variability. These changes would therefore amplify the inequality associated with the impacts of a changing climate.