Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models
International audience Assessment of population dynamics is central to population dynamics and conservation. In structured populations, matrix population models based on demographic data have been widely used to assess such dynamics. Although highlighted in several studies, the influence of heteroge...
Published in: | Ecological Modelling |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-02126364 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-02126364v1 2023-05-15T18:07:12+02:00 Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models Wintrebert, Claire, Zwinderman, A.H. Cam, Emmanuelle Pradel, Roger van Houwelingen, J.C. Department of Clinical Epidemiology Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) 2005-01 https://hal.science/hal-02126364 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 hal-02126364 https://hal.science/hal-02126364 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 ISSN: 0304-3800 Ecological Modelling https://hal.science/hal-02126364 Ecological Modelling, 2005, 181 (2-3), pp.203-213. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021⟩ Capture-recapture Frailty MCMC Joint modelling Individual heterogeneity [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2005 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 2023-03-01T04:29:29Z International audience Assessment of population dynamics is central to population dynamics and conservation. In structured populations, matrix population models based on demographic data have been widely used to assess such dynamics. Although highlighted in several studies, the influence of heterogeneity among individuals in demographic parameters and of the possible correlation among these parameters has usually been ignored, mostly because of difficulties in estimating such individual-specific parameters. In the kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), a long-lived seabird species, differences in survival and breeding probabilities among individual birds are well documented. Several approaches have been used in the animal ecology literature to establish the association between survival and breeding rates. However, most are based on observed heterogeneity between groups of individuals, an approach that seldom accounts for individual heterogeneity. Few attempts have been made to build models permitting estimation of the correlation between vital rates. For example, survival and breeding probability of individual birds were jointly modelled using logistic random effects models by [Cam, E., Link, W.A., Cooch, E.G., Monnat, J., Danchin, E., 2002. Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest. Am. Naturalist, 159, in press]. This is the only example in wildlife animal populations we are aware of. Here we adopt the survival analysis approaches from epidemiology. We model the survival and the breeding probability jointly using a normally distributed random effect (frailty). Conditionally on this random effect, the survival time is modelled assuming a lognormal distribution, and breeding is modelled with a logistic model. Since the deaths are observed in year-intervals, we also take into account that the data are interval censored. The joint model is estimated using classic frequentist methods and also MCMC techniques in Winbugs. The association between survival and breeding attempt is ... Article in Journal/Newspaper rissa tridactyla Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Ecological Modelling 181 2-3 203 213 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
Capture-recapture Frailty MCMC Joint modelling Individual heterogeneity [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
spellingShingle |
Capture-recapture Frailty MCMC Joint modelling Individual heterogeneity [SDE]Environmental Sciences Wintrebert, Claire, Zwinderman, A.H. Cam, Emmanuelle Pradel, Roger van Houwelingen, J.C. Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models |
topic_facet |
Capture-recapture Frailty MCMC Joint modelling Individual heterogeneity [SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Assessment of population dynamics is central to population dynamics and conservation. In structured populations, matrix population models based on demographic data have been widely used to assess such dynamics. Although highlighted in several studies, the influence of heterogeneity among individuals in demographic parameters and of the possible correlation among these parameters has usually been ignored, mostly because of difficulties in estimating such individual-specific parameters. In the kittiwake (Rissa tridactyla), a long-lived seabird species, differences in survival and breeding probabilities among individual birds are well documented. Several approaches have been used in the animal ecology literature to establish the association between survival and breeding rates. However, most are based on observed heterogeneity between groups of individuals, an approach that seldom accounts for individual heterogeneity. Few attempts have been made to build models permitting estimation of the correlation between vital rates. For example, survival and breeding probability of individual birds were jointly modelled using logistic random effects models by [Cam, E., Link, W.A., Cooch, E.G., Monnat, J., Danchin, E., 2002. Individual covariation in life-history traits: seeing the trees despite the forest. Am. Naturalist, 159, in press]. This is the only example in wildlife animal populations we are aware of. Here we adopt the survival analysis approaches from epidemiology. We model the survival and the breeding probability jointly using a normally distributed random effect (frailty). Conditionally on this random effect, the survival time is modelled assuming a lognormal distribution, and breeding is modelled with a logistic model. Since the deaths are observed in year-intervals, we also take into account that the data are interval censored. The joint model is estimated using classic frequentist methods and also MCMC techniques in Winbugs. The association between survival and breeding attempt is ... |
author2 |
Department of Clinical Epidemiology Evolution et Diversité Biologique (EDB) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3) Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Centre d’Ecologie Fonctionnelle et Evolutive (CEFE) Université Paul-Valéry - Montpellier 3 (UPVM)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-École pratique des hautes études (EPHE) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wintrebert, Claire, Zwinderman, A.H. Cam, Emmanuelle Pradel, Roger van Houwelingen, J.C. |
author_facet |
Wintrebert, Claire, Zwinderman, A.H. Cam, Emmanuelle Pradel, Roger van Houwelingen, J.C. |
author_sort |
Wintrebert, Claire, |
title |
Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models |
title_short |
Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models |
title_full |
Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models |
title_fullStr |
Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models |
title_sort |
joint modelling of breeding and survival in the kittiwake using frailty models |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-02126364 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 |
genre |
rissa tridactyla |
genre_facet |
rissa tridactyla |
op_source |
ISSN: 0304-3800 Ecological Modelling https://hal.science/hal-02126364 Ecological Modelling, 2005, 181 (2-3), pp.203-213. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 hal-02126364 https://hal.science/hal-02126364 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2004.02.021 |
container_title |
Ecological Modelling |
container_volume |
181 |
container_issue |
2-3 |
container_start_page |
203 |
op_container_end_page |
213 |
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1766179172556734464 |