Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn
International audience The recent Arctic sea ice reduction comes with an increase in the ice-free season duration, with comparable contributions of earlier ice retreat and later advance. CMIP5 models all project that the trend towards later advance should progressively exceed and ultimately double t...
Published in: | The Cryosphere |
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Main Authors: | , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2019
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/file/tc-13-79-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019 |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
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ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Lebrun, Marion Vancoppenolle, Martin Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience The recent Arctic sea ice reduction comes with an increase in the ice-free season duration, with comparable contributions of earlier ice retreat and later advance. CMIP5 models all project that the trend towards later advance should progressively exceed and ultimately double the trend towards earlier retreat, causing the ice-free season to shift into autumn. We show that such a shift is a basic feature of the thermodynamic response of seasonal ice to warming. The detailed analysis of an idealised thermodynamic ice–ocean model stresses the role of two seasonal amplifying feedbacks. The summer feedback generates a 1.6-day-later advance in response to a 1-day-earlier retreat. The underlying physics are the property of the upper ocean to absorb solar radiation more efficiently than it can release heat right before ice advance. The winter feedback is comparatively weak, prompting a 0.3-day-earlier retreat in response to a 1-day shift towards later advance. This is because a shorter growth season implies thinner ice, which subsequently melts away faster. However, the winter feedback is dampened by the relatively long ice growth period and by the inverse relationship between ice growth rate and thickness. At inter-annual timescales, the thermodynamic response of ice seasonality to warming is obscured by inter-annual variability. Nevertheless, in the long term, because all feedback mechanisms relate to basic and stable elements of the Arctic climate system, there is little inter-model uncertainty on the projected long-term shift into autumn of the ice-free season. |
author2 |
Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Earth Sciences Department Barcelona Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lebrun, Marion Vancoppenolle, Martin Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François |
author_facet |
Lebrun, Marion Vancoppenolle, Martin Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François |
author_sort |
Lebrun, Marion |
title |
Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn |
title_short |
Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn |
title_full |
Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn |
title_fullStr |
Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn |
title_full_unstemmed |
Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn |
title_sort |
arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/file/tc-13-79-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773 The Cryosphere, 2019, 13 (1), pp.79-96. ⟨10.5194/tc-13-79-2019⟩ |
op_relation |
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op_rights |
http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
13 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
79 |
op_container_end_page |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01996773v1 2023-05-15T14:54:41+02:00 Arctic sea-ice-free season projected to extend into autumn Lebrun, Marion Vancoppenolle, Martin Madec, Gurvan Massonnet, François Nucleus for European Modeling of the Ocean (NEMO R&D ) Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Paris Cité (UPCité) Earth and Life Institute Louvain-La-Neuve (ELI) Université Catholique de Louvain = Catholic University of Louvain (UCL) Earth Sciences Department Barcelona Barcelona Supercomputing Center - Centro Nacional de Supercomputacion (BSC - CNS) 2019 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/file/tc-13-79-2019.pdf https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019 en eng HAL CCSD Copernicus info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019 hal-01996773 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773 https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/document https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773/file/tc-13-79-2019.pdf doi:10.5194/tc-13-79-2019 WOS: 000455754900001 http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/ info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1994-0424 EISSN: 1994-0416 The Cryosphere https://hal.sorbonne-universite.fr/hal-01996773 The Cryosphere, 2019, 13 (1), pp.79-96. ⟨10.5194/tc-13-79-2019⟩ [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2019 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-13-79-2019 2023-01-18T00:59:31Z International audience The recent Arctic sea ice reduction comes with an increase in the ice-free season duration, with comparable contributions of earlier ice retreat and later advance. CMIP5 models all project that the trend towards later advance should progressively exceed and ultimately double the trend towards earlier retreat, causing the ice-free season to shift into autumn. We show that such a shift is a basic feature of the thermodynamic response of seasonal ice to warming. The detailed analysis of an idealised thermodynamic ice–ocean model stresses the role of two seasonal amplifying feedbacks. The summer feedback generates a 1.6-day-later advance in response to a 1-day-earlier retreat. The underlying physics are the property of the upper ocean to absorb solar radiation more efficiently than it can release heat right before ice advance. The winter feedback is comparatively weak, prompting a 0.3-day-earlier retreat in response to a 1-day shift towards later advance. This is because a shorter growth season implies thinner ice, which subsequently melts away faster. However, the winter feedback is dampened by the relatively long ice growth period and by the inverse relationship between ice growth rate and thickness. At inter-annual timescales, the thermodynamic response of ice seasonality to warming is obscured by inter-annual variability. Nevertheless, in the long term, because all feedback mechanisms relate to basic and stable elements of the Arctic climate system, there is little inter-model uncertainty on the projected long-term shift into autumn of the ice-free season. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Sea ice The Cryosphere Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Arctic The Cryosphere 13 1 79 96 |