Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios
International audience Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological-econom...
Published in: | Ecological Modelling |
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Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
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Online Access: | https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01922179 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01922179v1 2023-05-15T17:31:57+02:00 Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios Mullon, C. Steinmetz, F. Merino, G. Fernandes, J.A. Cheung, W.W.L. Butenschön, M. Barange, M. MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2016-01 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01922179 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 en eng HAL CCSD Elsevier info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 hal-01922179 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01922179 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 ISSN: 0304-3800 Ecological Modelling https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01922179 Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, 2016, 320, pp.273 - 291. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027⟩ Atlantic Ocean Climate change Climatic bio-geochemical and bio-economic modelling Network modelling Economic equilibrium Management scenarios SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS CHANGE IMPACTS FISH-MEAL MARINE MANAGEMENT GLOBALIZATION AQUACULTURE COMMUNITY DECLINE SYSTEM [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 2022-08-10T05:56:22Z International audience Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological-economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (I) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social-ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways. Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Ecological Modelling 320 273 291 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
Atlantic Ocean Climate change Climatic bio-geochemical and bio-economic modelling Network modelling Economic equilibrium Management scenarios SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS CHANGE IMPACTS FISH-MEAL MARINE MANAGEMENT GLOBALIZATION AQUACULTURE COMMUNITY DECLINE SYSTEM [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems |
spellingShingle |
Atlantic Ocean Climate change Climatic bio-geochemical and bio-economic modelling Network modelling Economic equilibrium Management scenarios SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS CHANGE IMPACTS FISH-MEAL MARINE MANAGEMENT GLOBALIZATION AQUACULTURE COMMUNITY DECLINE SYSTEM [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems Mullon, C. Steinmetz, F. Merino, G. Fernandes, J.A. Cheung, W.W.L. Butenschön, M. Barange, M. Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
topic_facet |
Atlantic Ocean Climate change Climatic bio-geochemical and bio-economic modelling Network modelling Economic equilibrium Management scenarios SOCIOECONOMIC SCENARIOS CHANGE IMPACTS FISH-MEAL MARINE MANAGEMENT GLOBALIZATION AQUACULTURE COMMUNITY DECLINE SYSTEM [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes [SDV.EE.ECO]Life Sciences [q-bio]/Ecology environment/Ecosystems |
description |
International audience Here we present quantitative projections of potential futures for ecosystems in the North Atlantic basin generated from coupling a climate change-driven biophysical model (representing ecosystem and fish populations under climate change) and a scenario-driven ecological-economic model (representing fleets and industries under economic globalization). Four contrasting scenarios (Baseline, Fortress, Global Commons, Free Trade) were defined from the perspective of alternative regional management and governance of the oceanic basin, providing pathways for the future of ecosystems in the Northeast Atlantic basin by 2040. Results indicate that in the time frame considered: (I) the effects of governance and trade decisions are more significant in determining outcomes than the effects of climate change alone, (2) climate change is likely to result in a poleward latitudinal shift of species ranges and thus resources, with implications for exploitation patterns, (3) the level of fisheries regulation is the most important factor in determining the long term evolution of the fisheries system, (4) coupling climate change and governance impacts demonstrates the complex interaction between different components of this social-ecological system, (5) an important driver of change for the future of the North Atlantic and the European fishing fleets appears to be the interplay between wild fisheries and aquaculture development, and finally (6) scenarios demonstrate that the viability and profit of fisheries industries is highly volatile. This study highlights the need to explore basin-scale policy that combines medium to long-term environmental and socio-economic considerations, and the importance of defining alternative sustainable pathways. |
author2 |
MARine Biodiversity Exploitation and Conservation (UMR MARBEC) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut Français de Recherche pour l'Exploitation de la Mer (IFREMER)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Mullon, C. Steinmetz, F. Merino, G. Fernandes, J.A. Cheung, W.W.L. Butenschön, M. Barange, M. |
author_facet |
Mullon, C. Steinmetz, F. Merino, G. Fernandes, J.A. Cheung, W.W.L. Butenschön, M. Barange, M. |
author_sort |
Mullon, C. |
title |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_short |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_full |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_fullStr |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_full_unstemmed |
Quantitative pathways for Northeast Atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
title_sort |
quantitative pathways for northeast atlantic fisheries based on climate, ecological–economic and governance modelling scenarios |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01922179 https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 |
genre |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic Northeast Atlantic |
op_source |
ISSN: 0304-3800 Ecological Modelling https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01922179 Ecological Modelling, Elsevier, 2016, 320, pp.273 - 291. ⟨10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 hal-01922179 https://hal.umontpellier.fr/hal-01922179 doi:10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ecolmodel.2015.09.027 |
container_title |
Ecological Modelling |
container_volume |
320 |
container_start_page |
273 |
op_container_end_page |
291 |
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1766129856152600576 |