A global probabilistic study of the ocean heat content low-frequency variability: Atmospheric forcing versus oceanic chaos

• Published in: Geophysical Research Letters
• Main Authors: Sérazin, Guillaume, Jaymond, Alexandre, Leroux, Stephanie, Penduff, Thierry, Bessières, Laurent, Llovel, W., Barnier, Bernard, Molines, Jean-Marc, Terray, Laurent
• Other Authors: Institut des Géosciences de l’Environnement (IGE), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut polytechnique de Grenoble - Grenoble Institute of Technology (Grenoble INP )-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Université Grenoble Alpes 2016-2019 (UGA 2016-2019 ), Centre Européen de Recherche et de Formation Avancée en Calcul Scientifique (CERFACS), CERFACS, Laboratoire d'études en Géophysique et océanographie spatiales (LEGOS), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Toulouse III - Paul Sabatier (UT3), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Observatoire Midi-Pyrénées (OMP), Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Université Fédérale Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Météo-France -Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2017
• Subjects: ocean heat content; intrinsic variability; eddy‐permitting OGCM; climate change; [SDU.OCEAN]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Ocean; Atmosphere; [SDU.STU.OC]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Oceanography; Southern Ocean; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01893878; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01893878/document; https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01893878/file/Serazin2017.pdf; https://doi.org/10.1002/2017GL073026

International audience A global 1/4° ocean/sea ice 50‐member ensemble simulation is used to disentangle the low‐frequency imprints of the atmospherically forced oceanic variability and of the chaotic intrinsic oceanic variability (IOV) on the large‐scale (10° × 10°) ocean heat content (OHC) between 1980 and 2010. The IOV explains most of the interannual‐to‐decadal large‐scale OHC variance over substantial fractions of the global ocean area that increase with depth: 9%, 22%, and 31% in the 0–700 m, 700–2000 m and 2000 m bottom layers, respectively. Such areas concern principally eddy‐active regions, mostly found in the Southern Ocean and in western boundary current extensions, and also concern the subtropical gyres at intermediate and deep levels. The oceanic chaos may also induce random multidecadal fluctuations so that large‐scale regional OHC trends computed on the 1980–2010 period cannot be unambiguously attributed to the atmospheric forcing in several oceanic basins at various depths. These results are likely to raise detection and attribution issues from real observations.