Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean
Recent pup population estimates of sympatric Subantarctic (Arctocephalus tropicalis) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) at Marion Island are presented. Published pup population estimates of A. tropicalis (1995 and 2004) with an unpublished total island count in 2013, and annual counts on subsets o...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01531712 https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12306 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01531712v1 2023-05-15T13:58:19+02:00 Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean Wege, Mia Etienne, Marie-Pierre Chris Oosthuizen, W. Reisinger, Ryan R. Bester, Marthán N. de Bruyn, P. J. Nico University of Pretoria South Africa Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA-Paris) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech Department of Science and Technology, through the National Research Foundation (NRF) Hanse-Wissenschaftskollege (Institute for Advanced Study) 2016 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01531712 https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12306 en eng HAL CCSD Wiley info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/mms.12306 hal-01531712 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01531712 doi:10.1111/mms.12306 PRODINRA: 379598 WOS: 000385006800009 ISSN: 0824-0469 EISSN: 1748-7692 Marine Mammal Science https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01531712 Marine Mammal Science, Wiley, 2016, 32 (3), pp.960-982. ⟨10.1111/mms.12306⟩ count density sympatry detection probability hierarchical Bayesian model Marion Island population estimate Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus Subantarctic fur seal [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12306 2022-11-09T02:04:44Z Recent pup population estimates of sympatric Subantarctic (Arctocephalus tropicalis) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) at Marion Island are presented. Published pup population estimates of A. tropicalis (1995 and 2004) with an unpublished total island count in 2013, and annual counts on subsets of rookeries (2007-2015) were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The pup population declined by 46% (95% credible interval CI: 43%-48%) between 2004 (mean = 15,260, CI: 14,447-16,169 pups) and 2013 (mean = 8,312, CI: 7,983-8,697), mirrored by a 58%-60% decline at rookeries counted annually (2007-2015). Population decline was highest at high-density west and north coast rookeries, despite negligible change in female attendance patterns, pup mortality or median pupping date over the previous 25 yr. A better understanding of foraging behavior and its effects on reproductive success and survival in this A. tropicalis population is needed before we can attribute population decline to any external factors. In contrast, total island counts of A. gazella pups in 2007, 2010, and 2013, suggest that this population is still increasing although the annual intrinsic rate of population growth decreased from 17.0% (1995-2004, 744 pups) to 4.0% (2010-2013, 1,553 pups). The slowed growth of A. gazella is likely the result of saturation at the main rookery. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Fur Seal Antarctic Fur Seals Marion Island Southern Ocean Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Antarctic Southern Ocean Marine Mammal Science 32 3 960 982 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
count density sympatry detection probability hierarchical Bayesian model Marion Island population estimate Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus Subantarctic fur seal [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
spellingShingle |
count density sympatry detection probability hierarchical Bayesian model Marion Island population estimate Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus Subantarctic fur seal [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] Wege, Mia Etienne, Marie-Pierre Chris Oosthuizen, W. Reisinger, Ryan R. Bester, Marthán N. de Bruyn, P. J. Nico Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean |
topic_facet |
count density sympatry detection probability hierarchical Bayesian model Marion Island population estimate Antarctic fur seal Arctocephalus Subantarctic fur seal [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
description |
Recent pup population estimates of sympatric Subantarctic (Arctocephalus tropicalis) and Antarctic fur seals (A. gazella) at Marion Island are presented. Published pup population estimates of A. tropicalis (1995 and 2004) with an unpublished total island count in 2013, and annual counts on subsets of rookeries (2007-2015) were analyzed using a hierarchical Bayesian model. The pup population declined by 46% (95% credible interval CI: 43%-48%) between 2004 (mean = 15,260, CI: 14,447-16,169 pups) and 2013 (mean = 8,312, CI: 7,983-8,697), mirrored by a 58%-60% decline at rookeries counted annually (2007-2015). Population decline was highest at high-density west and north coast rookeries, despite negligible change in female attendance patterns, pup mortality or median pupping date over the previous 25 yr. A better understanding of foraging behavior and its effects on reproductive success and survival in this A. tropicalis population is needed before we can attribute population decline to any external factors. In contrast, total island counts of A. gazella pups in 2007, 2010, and 2013, suggest that this population is still increasing although the annual intrinsic rate of population growth decreased from 17.0% (1995-2004, 744 pups) to 4.0% (2010-2013, 1,553 pups). The slowed growth of A. gazella is likely the result of saturation at the main rookery. |
author2 |
University of Pretoria South Africa Mathématiques et Informatique Appliquées (MIA-Paris) Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-AgroParisTech Department of Science and Technology, through the National Research Foundation (NRF) Hanse-Wissenschaftskollege (Institute for Advanced Study) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Wege, Mia Etienne, Marie-Pierre Chris Oosthuizen, W. Reisinger, Ryan R. Bester, Marthán N. de Bruyn, P. J. Nico |
author_facet |
Wege, Mia Etienne, Marie-Pierre Chris Oosthuizen, W. Reisinger, Ryan R. Bester, Marthán N. de Bruyn, P. J. Nico |
author_sort |
Wege, Mia |
title |
Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean |
title_short |
Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean |
title_full |
Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Trend changes in sympatric Subantarctic and Antarctic fur seal pup populations at Marion Island, Southern Ocean |
title_sort |
trend changes in sympatric subantarctic and antarctic fur seal pup populations at marion island, southern ocean |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01531712 https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12306 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Fur Seal Antarctic Fur Seals Marion Island Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctic Fur Seal Antarctic Fur Seals Marion Island Southern Ocean |
op_source |
ISSN: 0824-0469 EISSN: 1748-7692 Marine Mammal Science https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01531712 Marine Mammal Science, Wiley, 2016, 32 (3), pp.960-982. ⟨10.1111/mms.12306⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1111/mms.12306 hal-01531712 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01531712 doi:10.1111/mms.12306 PRODINRA: 379598 WOS: 000385006800009 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/mms.12306 |
container_title |
Marine Mammal Science |
container_volume |
32 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
960 |
op_container_end_page |
982 |
_version_ |
1766266556569878528 |