Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics
International audience In snow avalanche long-term forecasting, existing risk-based methods remain difficult to use in a real engineering context. In this work, we expand a quasi analytical decisional model to obtain simple formulae to quantify risk and to perform the optimal design of an avalanche...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/file/gr2016-pub00054176.pdf https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.64 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01507675v1 2023-05-15T16:57:30+02:00 Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics Favier, P. Eckert, Nicolas Faug, Thierry Bertrand, D. Naaim, Mohamed Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Laboratoire de Génie Civil et d'Ingénierie Environnementale (LGCIE) Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon) Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA) FONDAP Center for Genome Regulation (CGR) Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica CONICYT The University of Sydney French National Research Agency (ANR) MAP3 Alcotra Interreg program People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Unions Seventh Framework Programme under REA grant : 622899 2016 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/file/gr2016-pub00054176.pdf https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.64 en eng HAL CCSD International Glaciological Society info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2016.64 hal-01507675 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/file/gr2016-pub00054176.pdf doi:10.1017/jog.2016.64 IRSTEA: PUB00054176 WOS: 000383883000009 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 0022-1430 EISSN: 1727-5652 Journal of Glaciology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675 Journal of Glaciology, International Glaciological Society, 2016, 62 (234), pp.725-749. ⟨10.1017/jog.2016.64⟩ avalanches avalanche protection dam design EVALUATION DU RISQUE DIGUE PARAVALANCHE AVALANCHE THEORIE DES VALEURS EXTREMES DIMENSIONNEMENT [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2016 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.64 2022-11-02T02:00:18Z International audience In snow avalanche long-term forecasting, existing risk-based methods remain difficult to use in a real engineering context. In this work, we expand a quasi analytical decisional model to obtain simple formulae to quantify risk and to perform the optimal design of an avalanche dam in a quick and efficient way. Specifically, the exponential runout model is replaced by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), which has theoretical justifications that promote its use for modelling the different possible runout tail behaviours. Regarding the defence structure/flow interaction, a simple law based on kinetic energy dissipation is compared with a law based on the volume stored upstream of the dam, whose flexibility allows us to cope with various types of snow. We show how a detailed sensitivity study can be conducted, leading to intervals and bounds for risk estimates and optimal design values. Application to a typical case study from the French Alps, highlights potential operational difficulties and how they can be tackled. For instance, the highest sensitivity to the runout tail type and interaction law is found at abscissas of legal importance for hazard zoning (return periods of 10-1000 a), a crucial result for practical purposes. Article in Journal/Newspaper Journal of Glaciology Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Journal of Glaciology 62 234 725 749 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
avalanches avalanche protection dam design EVALUATION DU RISQUE DIGUE PARAVALANCHE AVALANCHE THEORIE DES VALEURS EXTREMES DIMENSIONNEMENT [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
spellingShingle |
avalanches avalanche protection dam design EVALUATION DU RISQUE DIGUE PARAVALANCHE AVALANCHE THEORIE DES VALEURS EXTREMES DIMENSIONNEMENT [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology Favier, P. Eckert, Nicolas Faug, Thierry Bertrand, D. Naaim, Mohamed Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics |
topic_facet |
avalanches avalanche protection dam design EVALUATION DU RISQUE DIGUE PARAVALANCHE AVALANCHE THEORIE DES VALEURS EXTREMES DIMENSIONNEMENT [SDE.IE]Environmental Sciences/Environmental Engineering [SPI.GCIV.RISQ]Engineering Sciences [physics]/Civil Engineering/Risques [SDU.STU.GL]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences/Glaciology |
description |
International audience In snow avalanche long-term forecasting, existing risk-based methods remain difficult to use in a real engineering context. In this work, we expand a quasi analytical decisional model to obtain simple formulae to quantify risk and to perform the optimal design of an avalanche dam in a quick and efficient way. Specifically, the exponential runout model is replaced by the Generalized Pareto distribution (GPD), which has theoretical justifications that promote its use for modelling the different possible runout tail behaviours. Regarding the defence structure/flow interaction, a simple law based on kinetic energy dissipation is compared with a law based on the volume stored upstream of the dam, whose flexibility allows us to cope with various types of snow. We show how a detailed sensitivity study can be conducted, leading to intervals and bounds for risk estimates and optimal design values. Application to a typical case study from the French Alps, highlights potential operational difficulties and how they can be tackled. For instance, the highest sensitivity to the runout tail type and interaction law is found at abscissas of legal importance for hazard zoning (return periods of 10-1000 a), a crucial result for practical purposes. |
author2 |
Erosion torrentielle neige et avalanches (UR ETGR (ETNA)) Institut national de recherche en sciences et technologies pour l'environnement et l'agriculture (IRSTEA) Laboratoire de Génie Civil et d'Ingénierie Environnementale (LGCIE) Université Claude Bernard Lyon 1 (UCBL) Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon) Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA) FONDAP Center for Genome Regulation (CGR) Comisión Nacional de Investigación Científica y Tecnológica CONICYT The University of Sydney French National Research Agency (ANR) MAP3 Alcotra Interreg program People Programme (Marie Curie Actions) of the European Unions Seventh Framework Programme under REA grant : 622899 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Favier, P. Eckert, Nicolas Faug, Thierry Bertrand, D. Naaim, Mohamed |
author_facet |
Favier, P. Eckert, Nicolas Faug, Thierry Bertrand, D. Naaim, Mohamed |
author_sort |
Favier, P. |
title |
Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics |
title_short |
Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics |
title_full |
Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics |
title_fullStr |
Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics |
title_sort |
avalanche risk evaluation and protective dam optimal design using extreme value statistics |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/file/gr2016-pub00054176.pdf https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.64 |
genre |
Journal of Glaciology |
genre_facet |
Journal of Glaciology |
op_source |
ISSN: 0022-1430 EISSN: 1727-5652 Journal of Glaciology https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675 Journal of Glaciology, International Glaciological Society, 2016, 62 (234), pp.725-749. ⟨10.1017/jog.2016.64⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1017/jog.2016.64 hal-01507675 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/document https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01507675/file/gr2016-pub00054176.pdf doi:10.1017/jog.2016.64 IRSTEA: PUB00054176 WOS: 000383883000009 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1017/jog.2016.64 |
container_title |
Journal of Glaciology |
container_volume |
62 |
container_issue |
234 |
container_start_page |
725 |
op_container_end_page |
749 |
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1766049050707099648 |