Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data
International audience We present a method of multiproxy reconstruction of the climate of Europe during the last millennium. The proxies used comprise long tree-ring width series, grape harvest dates, Greenland ice oxygen isotope series and temperature indices based on historical documents. The prox...
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01457698v1 2023-05-15T16:30:04+02:00 Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data Guiot, Joel Nicault, A Rathgeber, C Edouard, Jl Guibal, F Pichard, G Till, C Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE) Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) 2005-05 https://hal.science/hal-01457698 https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl81rp en eng HAL CCSD London: Sage info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1191/0959683605hl81rp hal-01457698 https://hal.science/hal-01457698 doi:10.1191/0959683605hl81rp ISSN: 0959-6836 EISSN: 1477-0911 The Holocene https://hal.science/hal-01457698 The Holocene, 2005, 15 (4), pp.489-500. ⟨10.1191/0959683605hl81rp⟩ [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2005 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl81rp 2023-02-08T09:46:19Z International audience We present a method of multiproxy reconstruction of the climate of Europe during the last millennium. The proxies used comprise long tree-ring width series, grape harvest dates, Greenland ice oxygen isotope series and temperature indices based on historical documents. The proxies are calibrated using gridded April to September mean temperatures for western Europe, i.e., between 10 degrees W and 20 degrees E and between 35 degrees N and 55 degrees N. They are calibrated also using the long instrumental summer temperature series of the Marseilles observatory of Longchamp, which begins in the mid-eighteenth century The method is a combination of an analogue technique, which is able to deal with missing data, an artificial neural network technique for an optimal non-linear Calibration and a bootstrap technique for calculating error bars on the reconstruction. About 70% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. The amplitude of the past temperature variations is particularly well reconstructed, which is important when considering whether the recent temperature trend is or is not within the natural variability. It appears that the temperature of the last decade of the twentieth century was reached only 14 times during the last millennium. The reconstruction is discussed with respect to other multiproxy and borehole temperature reconstructions. We conclude that a reconstruction such ours, with a specific regional focus (as opposed to the larger Northern Hemisphere) is more reliable and is in better agreement with borehole results, even allowing for the fact that only a part of the long-term variance is reconstructed. `Little Ice Age' (C. AD 1560-1930) summers were 0.2 +/- 0.5 degrees C cooler than the 1961 -1990 period. Borehole temperatures indicate a cooling of 0.4 degrees C which falls in the 95% confidence interval of our reconstructions. Article in Journal/Newspaper Greenland Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Greenland |
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Open Polar |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
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ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Guiot, Joel Nicault, A Rathgeber, C Edouard, Jl Guibal, F Pichard, G Till, C Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data |
topic_facet |
[SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience We present a method of multiproxy reconstruction of the climate of Europe during the last millennium. The proxies used comprise long tree-ring width series, grape harvest dates, Greenland ice oxygen isotope series and temperature indices based on historical documents. The proxies are calibrated using gridded April to September mean temperatures for western Europe, i.e., between 10 degrees W and 20 degrees E and between 35 degrees N and 55 degrees N. They are calibrated also using the long instrumental summer temperature series of the Marseilles observatory of Longchamp, which begins in the mid-eighteenth century The method is a combination of an analogue technique, which is able to deal with missing data, an artificial neural network technique for an optimal non-linear Calibration and a bootstrap technique for calculating error bars on the reconstruction. About 70% of the temperature variance is reconstructed. The amplitude of the past temperature variations is particularly well reconstructed, which is important when considering whether the recent temperature trend is or is not within the natural variability. It appears that the temperature of the last decade of the twentieth century was reached only 14 times during the last millennium. The reconstruction is discussed with respect to other multiproxy and borehole temperature reconstructions. We conclude that a reconstruction such ours, with a specific regional focus (as opposed to the larger Northern Hemisphere) is more reliable and is in better agreement with borehole results, even allowing for the fact that only a part of the long-term variance is reconstructed. `Little Ice Age' (C. AD 1560-1930) summers were 0.2 +/- 0.5 degrees C cooler than the 1961 -1990 period. Borehole temperatures indicate a cooling of 0.4 degrees C which falls in the 95% confidence interval of our reconstructions. |
author2 |
Centre européen de recherche et d'enseignement des géosciences de l'environnement (CEREGE) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Collège de France (CdF (institution))-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Institut méditerranéen de biodiversité et d'écologie marine et continentale (IMBE) Avignon Université (AU)-Aix Marseille Université (AMU)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UMR237-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Guiot, Joel Nicault, A Rathgeber, C Edouard, Jl Guibal, F Pichard, G Till, C |
author_facet |
Guiot, Joel Nicault, A Rathgeber, C Edouard, Jl Guibal, F Pichard, G Till, C |
author_sort |
Guiot, Joel |
title |
Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data |
title_short |
Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data |
title_full |
Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data |
title_fullStr |
Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data |
title_full_unstemmed |
Last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western Europe based on proxy data |
title_sort |
last-millennium summer-temperature variations in western europe based on proxy data |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2005 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01457698 https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl81rp |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Greenland |
genre_facet |
Greenland |
op_source |
ISSN: 0959-6836 EISSN: 1477-0911 The Holocene https://hal.science/hal-01457698 The Holocene, 2005, 15 (4), pp.489-500. ⟨10.1191/0959683605hl81rp⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1191/0959683605hl81rp hal-01457698 https://hal.science/hal-01457698 doi:10.1191/0959683605hl81rp |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1191/0959683605hl81rp |
_version_ |
1766019773717544960 |