Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory
International audience Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of sci...
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01440548v1 2023-05-15T14:03:53+02:00 Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) BRGM 2017-01-18 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/file/Le_Cozannet_et_al_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_014012.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 en eng HAL CCSD IOP Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 hal-01440548 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/file/Le_Cozannet_et_al_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_014012.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2017, 12 (1), pp.014012. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528⟩ [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 2022-07-26T23:11:53Z International audience Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. Moreover, additional physical limits to future sea-level rise have been established, although approximately. However, many probability functions can comply with this imprecise knowledge. In this contribution, we provide a framework based on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory) to model the uncertainties in sea-level rise projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results provide a concise representation of uncertainties in future sea-level rise and of their intrinsically imprecise nature, including a maximum bound of the total uncertainty. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections, which underestimate the expectancy of damages and adaptation needs compared to probabilistic laws. However, we show that the probability functions used so-far have only explored a rather conservative subset of sea-level projections compliant with the IPCC. As a consequence, coastal impact studies relying on these probabilistic sea-level projections are expected to underestimate the possibility of large damages and adaptation needs. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Greenland Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Greenland Environmental Research Letters 12 1 014012 |
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Open Polar |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
spellingShingle |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
topic_facet |
[SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences |
description |
International audience Despite progresses in climate change science, projections of future sea-level rise remain highly uncertain, especially due to large unknowns in the melting processes affecting the ice-sheets in Greenland and Antarctica. Based on climate-models outcomes and the expertise of scientists concerned with these issues, the IPCC provided constraints to the quantiles of sea-level projections. Moreover, additional physical limits to future sea-level rise have been established, although approximately. However, many probability functions can comply with this imprecise knowledge. In this contribution, we provide a framework based on extra-probabilistic theories (namely the possibility theory) to model the uncertainties in sea-level rise projections by 2100 under the RCP 8.5 scenario. The results provide a concise representation of uncertainties in future sea-level rise and of their intrinsically imprecise nature, including a maximum bound of the total uncertainty. Today, coastal impact studies are increasingly moving away from deterministic sea-level projections, which underestimate the expectancy of damages and adaptation needs compared to probabilistic laws. However, we show that the probability functions used so-far have only explored a rather conservative subset of sea-level projections compliant with the IPCC. As a consequence, coastal impact studies relying on these probabilistic sea-level projections are expected to underestimate the possibility of large damages and adaptation needs. |
author2 |
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) BRGM |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy |
author_facet |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri Manceau, Jean-Charles Rohmer, Jeremy |
author_sort |
Le Cozannet, Gonéri |
title |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_short |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_full |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_fullStr |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_full_unstemmed |
Bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
title_sort |
bounding probabilistic sea-level projections within the framework of the possibility theory |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/file/Le_Cozannet_et_al_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_014012.pdf https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 |
geographic |
Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Greenland |
op_source |
ISSN: 1748-9326 Environmental Research Letters https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548 Environmental Research Letters, IOP Publishing, 2017, 12 (1), pp.014012. ⟨10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 hal-01440548 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01440548/file/Le_Cozannet_et_al_2017_Environ._Res._Lett._12_014012.pdf doi:10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1088/1748-9326/aa5528 |
container_title |
Environmental Research Letters |
container_volume |
12 |
container_issue |
1 |
container_start_page |
014012 |
_version_ |
1766274753581023232 |