Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate
International audience A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) ano...
Published in: | Climate Dynamics |
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Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
HAL CCSD
2017
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Subjects: | |
Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-01415099 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01415099v1 |
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record_format |
openpolar |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
spellingShingle |
Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude King, M. P. Arribas, Alberto Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. M'Sadek, Rym Park, W. Sanchez-Gomez, E. Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
topic_facet |
Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] |
description |
International audience A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on ... |
author2 |
Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun Branch (CAS) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CERFACS Toulouse Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) BMBF project CLIMPRE InterDec (FKZ:01LP1609A; DM) and the RCN project KLIMAFORSK InterDec (260393; YG) within the framework of JPI CLIM Belmont-Forum InterDec consortial project European Project: 308299,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,NACLIM(2012) European Project: 655339,H2020,H2020-MSCA-IF-2014,DPETNA(2015) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude King, M. P. Arribas, Alberto Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. M'Sadek, Rym Park, W. Sanchez-Gomez, E. |
author_facet |
García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude King, M. P. Arribas, Alberto Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. M'Sadek, Rym Park, W. Sanchez-Gomez, E. |
author_sort |
García-Serrano, Javier |
title |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_short |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_full |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_fullStr |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
title_sort |
multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern arctic sea-ice variability and the euro-atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2017 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-01415099 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
geographic |
Arctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Greenland |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01415099 Climate Dynamics, 2017, 49 (7-8), pp.2407-2429. ⟨10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3⟩ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3454-3 |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308299/EU/North Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and change/NACLIM info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//655339/EU/Dynamics and Predictability of the ENSO teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic/DPETNA hal-01415099 https://hal.science/hal-01415099 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
49 |
container_issue |
7-8 |
container_start_page |
2407 |
op_container_end_page |
2429 |
_version_ |
1766302094287962112 |
spelling |
ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01415099v1 2023-05-15T14:27:59+02:00 Multi-model assessment of linkages between eastern Arctic sea-ice variability and the Euro-Atlantic atmospheric circulation in current climate García-Serrano, Javier Frankignoul, Claude King, M. P. Arribas, Alberto Gao, Y. Guemas, V. Matei, D. M'Sadek, Rym Park, W. Sanchez-Gomez, E. Laboratoire d'Océanographie et du Climat : Expérimentations et Approches Numériques (LOCEAN) Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-École normale supérieure - Paris (ENS-PSL) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Processus de la variabilité climatique tropicale et impacts (PARVATI) Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université Paris sciences et lettres (PSL)-Université de Versailles Saint-Quentin-en-Yvelines (UVSQ)-Commissariat à l'énergie atomique et aux énergies alternatives (CEA)-Université Paris Diderot - Paris 7 (UPD7)-École polytechnique (X)-Centre National d'Études Spatiales Toulouse (CNES)-Sorbonne Université (SU)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (MNHN)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD)-Université Pierre et Marie Curie - Paris 6 (UPMC)-Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut Pierre-Simon-Laplace (IPSL (FR_636)) Bjerknes Centre for Climate Research (BCCR) Department of Biological Sciences Bergen (BIO / UiB) University of Bergen (UiB)-University of Bergen (UiB) Met Office Hadley Centre for Climate Change (MOHC) United Kingdom Met Office Exeter Chinese Academy of Sciences Changchun Branch (CAS) Max Planck Institute for Meteorology (MPI-M) Max-Planck-Gesellschaft NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory (GFDL) National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) CERFACS Toulouse Institut national des sciences de l'Univers (INSU - CNRS)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) BMBF project CLIMPRE InterDec (FKZ:01LP1609A; DM) and the RCN project KLIMAFORSK InterDec (260393; YG) within the framework of JPI CLIM Belmont-Forum InterDec consortial project European Project: 308299,EC:FP7:ENV,FP7-ENV-2012-two-stage,NACLIM(2012) European Project: 655339,H2020,H2020-MSCA-IF-2014,DPETNA(2015) 2017 https://hal.science/hal-01415099 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 en eng HAL CCSD Springer Verlag info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/308299/EU/North Atlantic Climate: Predictability of the climate in the North Atlantic/European sector related to North Atlantic/Arctic sea surface temperature and sea ice variability and change/NACLIM info:eu-repo/grantAgreement//655339/EU/Dynamics and Predictability of the ENSO teleconnection to the Tropical North Atlantic/DPETNA hal-01415099 https://hal.science/hal-01415099 doi:10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 ISSN: 0930-7575 EISSN: 1432-0894 Climate Dynamics https://hal.science/hal-01415099 Climate Dynamics, 2017, 49 (7-8), pp.2407-2429. ⟨10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3⟩ https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs00382-016-3454-3 Arctic sea ice variability NAO/AO pattern Atmospheric teleconnection [PHYS.PHYS.PHYS-GEO-PH]Physics [physics]/Physics [physics]/Geophysics [physics.geo-ph] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2017 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-016-3454-3 2023-02-08T09:53:55Z International audience A set of ensemble integrations from the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 5, with historical forcing plus RCP4.5 scenario, are used to explore if state-of-the-art climate models are able to simulate previously reported linkages between sea-ice concentration (SIC) anomalies over the eastern Arctic, namely in the Greenland–Barents–Kara Seas, and lagged atmospheric circulation that projects on the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)/Arctic Oscillation (AO). The study is focused on variability around the long-term trends, so that all anomalies are detrended prior to analysis; the period of study is 1979–2013. The model linkages are detected by applying maximum covariance analysis. As also found in observational data, all the models considered here show a statistically significant link with sea-ice reduction over the eastern Arctic followed by a negative NAO/AO-like pattern. If the simulated relationship is found at a lag of one month, the results suggest that a stratospheric pathway could be at play as the driving mechanism; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in November. The interference of a wave-like anomaly over Eurasia, accompanying SIC changes, with the climatological wave pattern appears to be key in setting the mediating role of the stratosphere. On the other hand, if the simulated relationship is found at a lag of two months, the results suggest that tropospheric dynamics are dominant, presumably due to transient eddy feedback; in observations this is preferentially shown for SIC in December. The results shown here and previous evidence from atmosphere-only experiments emphasize that there could be a detectable influence of eastern Arctic SIC variability on mid-latitude atmospheric circulation anomalies. Even if the mechanisms are robust among the models, the timing of the simulated linkages strongly depends on the model and does not generally mimic the observational ones. This implies that the atmospheric sensitivity to sea-ice changes largely depends on ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Greenland North Atlantic North Atlantic oscillation Sea ice Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Arctic Greenland Climate Dynamics 49 7-8 2407 2429 |