Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics
International audience Sea-level rise (SLR) affects not only the total water level, but can also modify the tidal dynamics. Several studies investigated the SLR effect on the tide of the Western European continental shelf, analysing the tidal dynamics (mainly the M2 component) for various SLR scenar...
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01147090v1 2023-05-15T13:42:18+02:00 Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics Idier, Déborah Paris, François Le Cozannet, Gonéri Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) IPCC Paris, France 2015-07-07 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/file/Abstract.pdf en eng HAL CCSD hal-01147090 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/file/Abstract.pdf info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess Our Common Future under Climate Change (CFCC) Conference : International scientific conference https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090 Our Common Future under Climate Change (CFCC) Conference : International scientific conference, Jul 2015, Paris, France. 2015 sea level climate change tidal dynamics [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/conferenceObject Poster communications 2015 ftunivnantes 2022-08-10T07:54:12Z International audience Sea-level rise (SLR) affects not only the total water level, but can also modify the tidal dynamics. Several studies investigated the SLR effect on the tide of the Western European continental shelf, analysing the tidal dynamics (mainly the M2 component) for various SLR scenarios or coastal defence schemes. The present study aims at completing existing knowledge, using a modelling based approach, investigating 11 uniform SLR scenarios from-0.25 to +10m, and analysing the effect on high/low tide water level as well as the amplitude and phase tidal components. Sea-level rise scenarios include the present sea-level, as well as several idealized scenarios that correspond to plausible sea-levels for more or less distant past or future. On the one hand, the-0.25m scenario can be considered as a low bound for the preindustrial sea-level. On the other hand, positive SLR scenarios correspond to more or less plausible sea-levels in the future: according to IPCC, a rise of sea-level of +25cm is likely by 2046-2065 whatever the climate change scenario, and the likely range for high emissions scenarios reaches 0.5 to 1m by 2100. While higher SLR scenarios are not excluded by 2100, sea-level will continue to rise beyond 2100, and it is likely to reach values of several meters by 2200 and beyond. Finally, the +10m SLR scenario corresponds to a situation where most Greenland and west-Antarctic ice-sheets have melted. Assuming that coastal defences along the present day shoreline are maintained and upgraded, the patterns of increase / decrease of high tide level (annual maximum water level) are almost stationary in most of the area (70%), with an increase in most of the domain and a decrease mainly in the Western English Channel. These changes are globally varying linearly with the SLR, till the +2m SLR scenario, with rate ranging between-15% and +15% of SLR. The main patterns are: (1) a decrease in the Western English Channel, (2) an increase in the Irish Sea, Southern North Sea and German Bight. The ... Conference Object Antarc* Antarctic Greenland Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Antarctic Greenland |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
sea level climate change tidal dynamics [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
sea level climate change tidal dynamics [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Idier, Déborah Paris, François Le Cozannet, Gonéri Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics |
topic_facet |
sea level climate change tidal dynamics [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Sea-level rise (SLR) affects not only the total water level, but can also modify the tidal dynamics. Several studies investigated the SLR effect on the tide of the Western European continental shelf, analysing the tidal dynamics (mainly the M2 component) for various SLR scenarios or coastal defence schemes. The present study aims at completing existing knowledge, using a modelling based approach, investigating 11 uniform SLR scenarios from-0.25 to +10m, and analysing the effect on high/low tide water level as well as the amplitude and phase tidal components. Sea-level rise scenarios include the present sea-level, as well as several idealized scenarios that correspond to plausible sea-levels for more or less distant past or future. On the one hand, the-0.25m scenario can be considered as a low bound for the preindustrial sea-level. On the other hand, positive SLR scenarios correspond to more or less plausible sea-levels in the future: according to IPCC, a rise of sea-level of +25cm is likely by 2046-2065 whatever the climate change scenario, and the likely range for high emissions scenarios reaches 0.5 to 1m by 2100. While higher SLR scenarios are not excluded by 2100, sea-level will continue to rise beyond 2100, and it is likely to reach values of several meters by 2200 and beyond. Finally, the +10m SLR scenario corresponds to a situation where most Greenland and west-Antarctic ice-sheets have melted. Assuming that coastal defences along the present day shoreline are maintained and upgraded, the patterns of increase / decrease of high tide level (annual maximum water level) are almost stationary in most of the area (70%), with an increase in most of the domain and a decrease mainly in the Western English Channel. These changes are globally varying linearly with the SLR, till the +2m SLR scenario, with rate ranging between-15% and +15% of SLR. The main patterns are: (1) a decrease in the Western English Channel, (2) an increase in the Irish Sea, Southern North Sea and German Bight. The ... |
author2 |
Bureau de Recherches Géologiques et Minières (BRGM) (BRGM) IPCC |
format |
Conference Object |
author |
Idier, Déborah Paris, François Le Cozannet, Gonéri |
author_facet |
Idier, Déborah Paris, François Le Cozannet, Gonéri |
author_sort |
Idier, Déborah |
title |
Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics |
title_short |
Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics |
title_full |
Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics |
title_fullStr |
Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics |
title_full_unstemmed |
Sea-level rise impact on European shelf tide dynamics |
title_sort |
sea-level rise impact on european shelf tide dynamics |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/file/Abstract.pdf |
op_coverage |
Paris, France |
geographic |
Antarctic Greenland |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Greenland |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Greenland |
op_source |
Our Common Future under Climate Change (CFCC) Conference : International scientific conference https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090 Our Common Future under Climate Change (CFCC) Conference : International scientific conference, Jul 2015, Paris, France. 2015 |
op_relation |
hal-01147090 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090 https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/document https://hal-brgm.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01147090/file/Abstract.pdf |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
_version_ |
1766166189670662144 |