Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change
International audience Climate change has been projected to a ect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2,3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator...
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Online Access: | https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061307 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-01061307v1 2023-05-15T13:44:28+02:00 Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hollland, Marika Stroeve, Julienne Serreze, Mark Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) 2014 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061307 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 en eng HAL CCSD Nature Publishing Group info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 hal-01061307 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061307 doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 ISSN: 1758-678X EISSN: 1758-6798 Nature Climate Change https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061307 Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4, pp.715-718. ⟨10.1038/NCLIMATE2280⟩ [SDE]Environmental Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2014 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 2023-01-04T00:08:33Z International audience Climate change has been projected to a ect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2,3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) e ort4. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies5 by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model6,7 with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics di er among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declinedby>50%fromtheir current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics8, global analyses are critical for conservation9.We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangeredby future climate change. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Antarctic Nature Climate Change 4 8 715 718 |
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Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
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ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hollland, Marika Stroeve, Julienne Serreze, Mark Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change |
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[SDE]Environmental Sciences |
description |
International audience Climate change has been projected to a ect species distribution1 and future trends of local populations2,3, but projections of global population trends are rare. We analyse global population trends of the emperor penguin (Aptenodytes forsteri), an iconic Antarctic top predator, under the influence of sea ice conditions projected by coupled climate models assessed in the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) e ort4. We project the dynamics of all 45 known emperor penguin colonies5 by forcing a sea-ice-dependent demographic model6,7 with local, colony-specific, sea ice conditions projected through to the end of the twenty-first century. Dynamics di er among colonies, but by 2100 all populations are projected to be declining. At least two-thirds are projected to have declinedby>50%fromtheir current size. The global population is projected to have declined by at least 19%. Because criteria to classify species by their extinction risk are based on the global population dynamics8, global analyses are critical for conservation9.We discuss uncertainties arising in such global projections and the problems of defining conservation criteria for species endangeredby future climate change. |
author2 |
Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé - UMR 7372 (CEBC) La Rochelle Université (ULR)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)-Institut National de Recherche pour l’Agriculture, l’Alimentation et l’Environnement (INRAE) |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hollland, Marika Stroeve, Julienne Serreze, Mark Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal |
author_facet |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie Hollland, Marika Stroeve, Julienne Serreze, Mark Barbraud, Christophe Weimerskirch, Henri Caswell, Hal |
author_sort |
Jenouvrier, Stephanie |
title |
Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change |
title_short |
Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change |
title_full |
Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change |
title_fullStr |
Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change |
title_full_unstemmed |
Projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change |
title_sort |
projected continent-wide declines of the emperor penguin under climate change |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061307 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 |
geographic |
Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Aptenodytes forsteri Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 1758-678X EISSN: 1758-6798 Nature Climate Change https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061307 Nature Climate Change, 2014, 4, pp.715-718. ⟨10.1038/NCLIMATE2280⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 hal-01061307 https://hal.archives-ouvertes.fr/hal-01061307 doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE2280 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
4 |
container_issue |
8 |
container_start_page |
715 |
op_container_end_page |
718 |
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1766202070090645504 |