Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population
International audience Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as...
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Online Access: | https://hal.science/hal-00360498 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812940106 |
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ftunivnantes:oai:HAL:hal-00360498v1 2023-05-15T13:55:48+02:00 Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Caswell, Hal Barbraud, Christophe Holland, Marika Stroeved, Julienne Weimerskirch, Henri Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Biology Department (WHOI) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Oceanography Section National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) University of Colorado Boulder 2009-01-26 https://hal.science/hal-00360498 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812940106 en eng HAL CCSD National Academy of Sciences info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812940106 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/19171908 hal-00360498 https://hal.science/hal-00360498 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812940106 PUBMED: 19171908 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC2644098 ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-00360498 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009, 106 (6), pp.1844-1847. ⟨10.1073/pnas.0812940106⟩ bird populations climate change quasi-extinction sea ice stochastic matrix population models [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2009 ftunivnantes https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812940106 2023-02-08T03:05:18Z International audience Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES Antarctic Terre Adélie ENVELOPE(139.000,139.000,-67.000,-67.000) Terre-Adélie ENVELOPE(138.991,138.991,-59.999,-59.999) Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 106 6 1691 1692 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Nantes: HAL-UNIV-NANTES |
op_collection_id |
ftunivnantes |
language |
English |
topic |
bird populations climate change quasi-extinction sea ice stochastic matrix population models [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
spellingShingle |
bird populations climate change quasi-extinction sea ice stochastic matrix population models [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Caswell, Hal Barbraud, Christophe Holland, Marika Stroeved, Julienne Weimerskirch, Henri Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
topic_facet |
bird populations climate change quasi-extinction sea ice stochastic matrix population models [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society [SDE.MCG]Environmental Sciences/Global Changes |
description |
International audience Studies have reported important effects of recent climate change on Antarctic species, but there has been to our knowledge no attempt to explicitly link those results to forecasted population responses to climate change. Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) is projected to shrink as concentrations of atmospheric greenhouse gases (GHGs) increase, and emperor penguins (Aptenodytes forsteri) are extremely sensitive to these changes because they use sea ice as a breeding, foraging and molting habitat. We project emperor penguin population responses to future sea ice changes, using a stochastic population model that combines a unique long-term demographic dataset (1962-2005) from a colony in Terre Adélie, Antarctica and projections of SIE from General Circulation Models (GCM) of Earth's climate included in the most recent Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment report. We show that the increased frequency of warm events associated with projected decreases in SIE will reduce the population viability. The probability of quasi-extinction (a decline of 95% or more) is at least 36% by 2100. The median population size is projected to decline from approximately 6,000 to approximately 400 breeding pairs over this period. To avoid extinction, emperor penguins will have to adapt, migrate or change the timing of their growth stages. However, given the future projected increases in GHGs and its effect on Antarctic climate, evolution or migration seem unlikely for such long lived species at the remote southern end of the Earth. |
author2 |
Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC) Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) Biology Department (WHOI) Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution (WHOI) Oceanography Section National Center for Atmospheric Research Boulder (NCAR) National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC) University of Colorado Boulder |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Caswell, Hal Barbraud, Christophe Holland, Marika Stroeved, Julienne Weimerskirch, Henri |
author_facet |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie Caswell, Hal Barbraud, Christophe Holland, Marika Stroeved, Julienne Weimerskirch, Henri |
author_sort |
Jenouvrier, Stéphanie |
title |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_short |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_full |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_fullStr |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_full_unstemmed |
Demographic models and IPCC climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
title_sort |
demographic models and ipcc climate projections predict the decline of an emperor penguin population |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
https://hal.science/hal-00360498 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812940106 |
long_lat |
ENVELOPE(139.000,139.000,-67.000,-67.000) ENVELOPE(138.991,138.991,-59.999,-59.999) |
geographic |
Antarctic Terre Adélie Terre-Adélie |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Terre Adélie Terre-Adélie |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Antarctica Aptenodytes forsteri Emperor penguins Sea ice |
op_source |
ISSN: 0027-8424 EISSN: 1091-6490 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America https://hal.science/hal-00360498 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2009, 106 (6), pp.1844-1847. ⟨10.1073/pnas.0812940106⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1073/pnas.0812940106 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/19171908 hal-00360498 https://hal.science/hal-00360498 doi:10.1073/pnas.0812940106 PUBMED: 19171908 PUBMEDCENTRAL: PMC2644098 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.0812940106 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
106 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
1691 |
op_container_end_page |
1692 |
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1766262648323702784 |