Relationships between sea ice concentration, sea surface temperature and demographic traits of thin-billed prions

• Published in: Polar Biology
• Main Authors: Nevoux, Marie, Barbraud, Christophe
• Other Authors: Centre d'Études Biologiques de Chizé (CEBC), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2006
• Subjects: [SDE.BE]Environmental Sciences/Biodiversity and Ecology; [SDE.ES]Environmental Sciences/Environmental and Society; Antarctic; The Antarctic; Austral; Kerguelen; Kerguelen Islands; Austral Ocean; Antarc*; Polar Biology; Sea ice
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-00184597; https://doi.org/10.1007/s00300-005-0075-4

International audience Understanding the effects of environmental variations on ecosystems is a major topic in ecology. In this study, we estimated demographic parameters of a seabird population, the thin-billed prion (Pachyptila belcheri) at Kerguelen Islands, and then tested for relationships with inter-annual variations of climatic indices, using long-term capture–recapture data. The annual adult survival probability was 0.825±0.009 and the breeding success was 0.519±0.090. Sea surface temperature anomalies were negatively related with breeding success. By contrast, winter sea ice concentration in the Antarctic seasonal ice zone seemed to negatively influence adult survival. This suggests a connection between sub-Antarctic and Antarctic ecosystems. The actual context of large climatic changes in the Austral Ocean seems to explain a large part of the decreasing trends observed for both the breeding success and the adult survival. Thus, a decrease of the population size of thinbilled prions at Kerguelen could be strongly suspected in the near future.