Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring
The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn h...
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690106 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011383117 |
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ftunivmob:oai:nmbu.brage.unit.no:11250/2690106 2023-05-15T15:50:50+02:00 Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Pierre Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz Fernandez, Andres Avelino de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas 2020-11-17T11:43:18Z application/pdf https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690106 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011383117 eng eng Norges forskningsråd: 286886 Andre: Peder Sather Grant Andre: Norwegian Environment Agency Andre: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020. urn:issn:0027-8424 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690106 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011383117 cristin:1848704 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no CC-BY-NC-ND 8 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Peer reviewed Journal article 2020 ftunivmob https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011383117 2021-09-23T20:15:20Z The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world’s largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes. spatial capture–recapture | imperfect detection | noninvasive monitoring of large carnivores | density surface | vital rates publishedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos Open archive Norwegian University of Life Sciences: Brage NMBU Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 117 48 30531 30538 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Open archive Norwegian University of Life Sciences: Brage NMBU |
op_collection_id |
ftunivmob |
language |
English |
topic |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
spellingShingle |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Pierre Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz Fernandez, Andres Avelino de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
topic_facet |
VDP::Zoologiske og botaniske fag: 480 VDP::Zoology and botany: 480 |
description |
The ongoing recovery of terrestrial large carnivores in North America and Europe is accompanied by intense controversy. On the one hand, reestablishment of large carnivores entails a recovery of their most important ecological role, predation. On the other hand, societies are struggling to relearn how to live with apex predators that kill livestock, compete for game species, and occasionally injure or kill people. Those responsible for managing these species and mitigating conflict often lack fundamental information due to a long-standing challenge in ecology: How do we draw robust population-level inferences for elusive animals spread over immense areas? Here we showcase the application of an effective tool for spatially explicit tracking and forecasting of wildlife population dynamics at scales that are relevant to management and conservation. We analyzed the world’s largest dataset on carnivores comprising more than 35,000 noninvasively obtained DNA samples from over 6,000 individual brown bears (Ursus arctos), gray wolves (Canis lupus), and wolverines (Gulo gulo). Our analyses took into account that not all individuals are detected and, even if detected, their fates are not always known. We show unequivocal quantitative evidence of large carnivore recovery in northern Europe, juxtaposed with the finding that humans are the single-most important factor driving the dynamics of these apex predators. We present maps and forecasts of the spatiotemporal dynamics of large carnivore populations, transcending national boundaries and management regimes. spatial capture–recapture | imperfect detection | noninvasive monitoring of large carnivores | density surface | vital rates publishedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Pierre Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz Fernandez, Andres Avelino de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas |
author_facet |
Bischof, Richard Milleret, Cyril Pierre Dupont, Pierre Chipperfield, Joseph Tourani, Mahdieh Ordiz Fernandez, Andres Avelino de Valpine, Perry Turek, Daniel Royle, J. Andrew Gimenez, Olivier Flagstad, Øystein Åkesson, Mikael Svensson, Linn Brøseth, Henrik Kindberg, Jonas |
author_sort |
Bischof, Richard |
title |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_short |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_full |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_fullStr |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_full_unstemmed |
Estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
title_sort |
estimating and forecasting spatial population dynamics of apex predators using transnational genetic monitoring |
publishDate |
2020 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690106 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011383117 |
genre |
Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos |
genre_facet |
Canis lupus Gulo gulo Ursus arctos |
op_source |
8 Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 286886 Andre: Peder Sather Grant Andre: Norwegian Environment Agency Andre: Swedish Environmental Protection Agency Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America. 2020. urn:issn:0027-8424 https://hdl.handle.net/11250/2690106 https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011383117 cristin:1848704 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1073/pnas.2011383117 |
container_title |
Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences |
container_volume |
117 |
container_issue |
48 |
container_start_page |
30531 |
op_container_end_page |
30538 |
_version_ |
1766385866636263424 |