An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods
We develop an integrated population model for Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, and demonstrate how this type of model can be used to extract more information from the data and separate different sources of variability in population estimates. Our model combines individual mark–reca...
Published in: | Oikos |
---|---|
Main Authors: | , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
Published: |
2015
|
Subjects: | |
Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2577731 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01924 |
id |
ftunivmob:oai:nmbu.brage.unit.no:11250/2577731 |
---|---|
record_format |
openpolar |
spelling |
ftunivmob:oai:nmbu.brage.unit.no:11250/2577731 2023-05-15T18:04:24+02:00 An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods Lee, Aline Magdalena Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. Stien, Audun Sæther, Bernt-Erik Engen, Steinar Veiberg, Vebjørn Loe, Leif Egil Grøtan, Vidar 2015-03-05T12:19:30Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2577731 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01924 eng eng Norges forskningsråd: 223257 EU/268562 Norges forskningsråd: 178561 Oikos. 2015, 124 (6), 806-816. urn:issn:0030-1299 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2577731 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01924 cristin:1229647 Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no CC-BY-NC-ND 806-816 124 Oikos 6 Journal article Peer reviewed 2015 ftunivmob https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01924 2021-09-23T20:16:40Z We develop an integrated population model for Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, and demonstrate how this type of model can be used to extract more information from the data and separate different sources of variability in population estimates. Our model combines individual mark–recapture data with population counts and harvesting data within a Bayesian model framework, and accounts for observation error, environmental and demographic stochasticity,and age structure. From this model we obtain annual estimates of age-specific population size, survival and fecundity. The model provides estimates of age structure at a finer scale than that found in the census data, and enables us to estimate survival for the period before calves are first caught and marked, i.e. before they enter the individual mark–recapture data. The modeling framework provides an improved approach to studying age-structured populations that are imperfectly censused and where the demography of only a sample of individuals is known. We use data from independent censuses of the same population to evaluate population estimates obtained from the model, and show that it is successful at correcting for different types of observation error. Based on our model results, we suggest that allocating resources to the collection of supplementary mark–recapture data could improve the reliability of population projections more than making regular population censuses as exhaustive as possible. Our work demonstrates how integrated Bayesian population modeling can be used to increase the amount of information extracted from collections of data, identifying and disentangling sources of variation in individual performance and population size. This represents an important step towards increasing the predictive ability of population growth models for long-lived species experiencing changes in environmental conditions and harvesting regimes. submittedVersion Article in Journal/Newspaper Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer Open archive Norwegian University of Life Sciences: Brage NMBU Svalbard Oikos 124 6 806 816 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
Open archive Norwegian University of Life Sciences: Brage NMBU |
op_collection_id |
ftunivmob |
language |
English |
description |
We develop an integrated population model for Svalbard reindeer Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus, and demonstrate how this type of model can be used to extract more information from the data and separate different sources of variability in population estimates. Our model combines individual mark–recapture data with population counts and harvesting data within a Bayesian model framework, and accounts for observation error, environmental and demographic stochasticity,and age structure. From this model we obtain annual estimates of age-specific population size, survival and fecundity. The model provides estimates of age structure at a finer scale than that found in the census data, and enables us to estimate survival for the period before calves are first caught and marked, i.e. before they enter the individual mark–recapture data. The modeling framework provides an improved approach to studying age-structured populations that are imperfectly censused and where the demography of only a sample of individuals is known. We use data from independent censuses of the same population to evaluate population estimates obtained from the model, and show that it is successful at correcting for different types of observation error. Based on our model results, we suggest that allocating resources to the collection of supplementary mark–recapture data could improve the reliability of population projections more than making regular population censuses as exhaustive as possible. Our work demonstrates how integrated Bayesian population modeling can be used to increase the amount of information extracted from collections of data, identifying and disentangling sources of variation in individual performance and population size. This represents an important step towards increasing the predictive ability of population growth models for long-lived species experiencing changes in environmental conditions and harvesting regimes. submittedVersion |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Lee, Aline Magdalena Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. Stien, Audun Sæther, Bernt-Erik Engen, Steinar Veiberg, Vebjørn Loe, Leif Egil Grøtan, Vidar |
spellingShingle |
Lee, Aline Magdalena Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. Stien, Audun Sæther, Bernt-Erik Engen, Steinar Veiberg, Vebjørn Loe, Leif Egil Grøtan, Vidar An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods |
author_facet |
Lee, Aline Magdalena Bjørkvoll, Eirin Marie Hansen, Brage Bremset Albon, Steve D. Stien, Audun Sæther, Bernt-Erik Engen, Steinar Veiberg, Vebjørn Loe, Leif Egil Grøtan, Vidar |
author_sort |
Lee, Aline Magdalena |
title |
An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods |
title_short |
An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods |
title_full |
An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods |
title_fullStr |
An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods |
title_full_unstemmed |
An integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with Bayesian methods |
title_sort |
integrated population model for a long-lived ungulate: more efficient data use with bayesian methods |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2577731 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01924 |
geographic |
Svalbard |
geographic_facet |
Svalbard |
genre |
Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
genre_facet |
Rangifer tarandus Rangifer tarandus platyrhynchus Svalbard svalbard reindeer |
op_source |
806-816 124 Oikos 6 |
op_relation |
Norges forskningsråd: 223257 EU/268562 Norges forskningsråd: 178561 Oikos. 2015, 124 (6), 806-816. urn:issn:0030-1299 http://hdl.handle.net/11250/2577731 https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01924 cristin:1229647 |
op_rights |
Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 Internasjonal http://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-nc-nd/4.0/deed.no |
op_rightsnorm |
CC-BY-NC-ND |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/oik.01924 |
container_title |
Oikos |
container_volume |
124 |
container_issue |
6 |
container_start_page |
806 |
op_container_end_page |
816 |
_version_ |
1766175776596557824 |