Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: An analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016

• Published in: The Lancet
• Main Authors: Fullman, Nancy, Barber, Ryan M., Abajobir, Amanuel Alemu, Abate, Kalkidan Hassen, Abbafati, Cristiana, Abbas, Kaja M., Abd-Allah, Foad, Abdulle, Abdishakur M., Abera, Semaw Ferede, Aboyans, Victor, Abu-Raddad, Laith J., Abu-Rmeileh, Niveen M. E., Adedeji, Isaac Akinkunmi, Adetokunboh, Olatunji, Afshin, Ashkan, Agrawal, Anurag, Agrawal, Sutapa, Kiadaliri, Aliasghar Ahmad, Ahmadieh, Hamid, Ahmed, Muktar Beshir, Aichour, Amani Nidhal, Aichour, Ibtihel, Aichour, Miloud Taki Eddine, Aiyar, Sneha, Akinyemi, Rufus Olusola, Akseer, Nadia, Al-Aly, Ziyad, Alam, Khurshid, Alam, Noore, Alasfoor, Deena, Alene, Kefyalew Addis, Alizadeh-Navaei, Reza, Alkerwi, Ala'a, Alla, François, Allebeck, Peter, Allen, Christine, Al-Raddadi, Rajaa, Alsharif, Ubai, Altirkawi, Khalid A., Alvis-Guzman, Nelson, Amare, Azmeraw T., Amini, Erfan, Ammar, Walid, Antonio, Carl Abelardo T., Ansari, Hossein, Anwari, Palwasha, Arora, Megha, Artaman, Al, Aryal, Krishna Kumar, Asayesh, Hamid, Asgedom, Solomon Weldegebreal, Assadi, Reza, Atey, Tesfay Mehari, Atre, Sachin R., Avila-Burgos, Leticia, Arthur Avokpaho, Euripide Frinel G., Awasthi, Ashish, Azzopardi, Peter, Bacha, Umar, Badawi, Alaa, Balakrishnan, Kalpana, Bannick, Marlena S., Barac, Aleksandra, Barker-Collo, Suzanne L., Bärnighausen, Till, Barrero, Lope H., Basu, Sanjay, Battle, Katherine E., Baune, Bernhard T., Beardsley, Justin, Bedi, Neeraj, Beghi, Ettore, Béjot, Yannick, Bell, Michelle L., Bennett, Derrick A., Bennett, James R., Bensenor, Isabela M., Berhane, Adugnaw, Berhe, Derbew Fikadu, Bernabé, Eduardo, Betsu, Balem Demtsu, Beuran, Mircea, Beyene, Addisu Shunu, Bhala, Neeraj, Bhansali, Anil, Bhatt, Samir, Bhutta, Zulfiqar A., Bikbov, Boris, Bilal, Arebu I., Birungi, Charles, Biryukov, Stan, Bizuayehu, Habtamu Mellie, Blosser, Christopher D., Boneya, Dube Jara, Bose, Dipan, Bou-Orm, Ibrahim R., Brauer, Michael, Breitborde, Nicholas J. K., Brugha, Traolach S., Bulto, Lemma Negesa Bulto, Butt, Zahid A., Cahuana-Hurtado, Lucero, Cameron, Ewan, Campuzano, Julio Cesar, Carabin, Hélène, Cárdenas, Rosario, Carrero, Juan Jesus, Carter, Austin, Casey, Daniel C., Castañeda-Orjuela, Carlos A., Rivas, Jacqueline Castillo, Castro, Ruben Estanislao, Catalá-López, Ferrán, Cercy, Kelly, Chang, Hsing-Yi, Chang, Jung-Chen, Charlson, Fiona J., Chew, Adrienne, Chisumpa, Vesper Hichilombwe, Chitheer, Abdulaal A., Christensen, Hanne, Christopher, Devasahayam Jesudas, Cirillo, Massimo, Cooper, Cyrus, Criqui, Michael H., Cromwell, Elizabeth A., Crump, John A., Dandona, Lalit, Dandona, Rakhi, Dargan, Paul I., Das Neves, José, Davitoiu, Dragos V., De Courten, Barbora, De Steur, Hans, Degenhardt, Louisa, Deiparine, Selina, Deribe, Kebede, DeVeber, Gabrielle A., Ding, Eric L., Djalalinia, Shirin, Do, Huyen Phuc, Dokova, Klara, Doku, David Teye, Dorsey, E. Ray, Driscoll, Tim R., Dubey, Manisha, Duncan, Bruce Bartholow, Ebel, Beth E., Ebrahimi, Hedyeh, El-Khatib, Ziad Ziad, Enayati, Ahmadali, Endries, Aman Yesuf, Ermakov, Sergey Petrovich, Erskine, Holly E., Eshrati, Babak, Eskandarieh, Sharareh, Esteghamati, Alireza, Estep, Kara, Faraon, Emerito Jose Aquino, Sofia E Sa Farinha, Carla, Faro, André, Farzadfar, Farshad, Fazeli, Mir Sohail, Feigin, Valery L., Feigl, Andrea B., Fereshtehnejad, Seyed-Mohammad, Fernandes, João C., Ferrari, Alize J., Feyissa, Tesfaye Regassa, Filip, Irina, Fischer, Florian, Fitzmaurice, Christina, Flaxman, Abraham D., Foigt, Nataliya, Foreman, Kyle J., Frank, Tahvi, Franklin, Richard C., Friedman, Joseph, Frostad, Joseph J., Fürst, Thomas, Furtado, Joao M., Gakidou, Emmanuela, Garcia-Basteiro, Alberto L., Gebrehiwot, Tsegaye Tewelde, Geleijnse, Johanna M., Geleto, Ayele, Gemechu, Bikila Lencha, Gething, Peter W., Gibney, Katherine B., Gill, Paramjit Singh, Gillum, Richard F., Giref, Ababi Zergaw, Gishu, Melkamu Dedefo, Giussani, Giorgia, Glenn, Scott D., Godwin, William W., Goldberg, Ellen M., Gona, Philimon N., Goodridge, Amador, Gopalani, Sameer Vali, Goryakin, Yevgeniy, Griswold, Max, Gugnani, Harish Chander, Gupta, Rajeev, Gupta, Tanush, Gupta, Vipin, Hafezi-Nejad, Nima, Bidgoli, Hassan Haghparast, Hailu, Gessessew Bugssa, Hamadeh, Randah Ribhi, Hammami, Mouhanad, Hankey, Graeme J., Harb, Hilda L., Hareri, Habtamu Abera, Hassanvand, Mohammad Sadegh, Havmoeller, Rasmus, Hawley, Caitlin, Hay, Simon I., He, Jiawei, Hendrie, Delia, Henry, Nathaniel J., Heredia-Pi, Ileana Beatriz, Hoek, Hans W., Holmberg, Mollie, Horita, Nobuyuki, Hosgood, H. Dean, Hostiuc, Sorin, Hoy, Damian G., Hsairi, Mohamed, Htet, Aung Soe, Huang, Hsiang, Huang, John J., Huynh, Chantal, Iburg, Kim Moesgaard, Ikeda, Chad, Inoue, Manami, Irvine, Caleb Mackay Salpeter, Jacobsen, Kathryn H., Jahanmehr, Nader, Jakovljevic, Mihajlo B., Jauregui, Alejandra, Javanbakht, Mehdi, Jeemon, Panniyammakal, Jha, Vivekanand, John, Denny, Johnson, Catherine O., Johnson, Sarah Charlotte, Jonas, Jost B., Jürisson, Mikk, Kabir, Zubair, Kadel, Rajendra, Kahsay, Amaha, Kamal, Ritul, Karch, André, Karema, Corine Kakizi, Kasaeian, Amir, Kassebaum, Nicholas J., Kastor, Anshul, Katikireddi, Srinivasa Vittal, Kawakami, Norito, Keiyoro, Peter Njenga, Kelbore, Sefonias Getachew, Kemmer, Laura, Kengne, Andre Pascal, Kesavachandran, Chandrasekharan Nair, Khader, Yousef Saleh, Khalil, Ibrahim A., Khan, Ejaz Ahmad, Khang, Young-Ho, Khosravi, Ardeshir, Khubchandani, Jagdish, Kieling, Christian, Kim, Daniel, Kim, Jun Y., Kim, Yun Jin, Kimokoti, Ruth W., Kinfu, Yohannes, Kisa, Adnan, Kissimova-Skarbek, Katarzyna A., Kivimaki, Mika, Kokubo, Yoshihiro, Kopec, Jacek A., Kosen, Soewarta, Koul, Parvaiz A., Koyanagi, Ai, Kravchenko, Michael, Krohn, Kristopher J., Defo, Barthelemy Kuate, Bicer, Burcu Kucuk, Kulikoff, Xie Rachel, Kumar, G. Anil, Kutz, Michael J., Kyu, Hmwe H., Lal, Dharmesh Kumar, Lalloo, Ratilal, Lansingh, Van C., Larsson, Anders, Lazarus, Jeffrey Victor, Lee, Paul H., Leigh, James, Leung, Janni, Leung, Ricky, Levi, Miriam, Li, Yongmei, Liben, Misgan Legesse, Linn, Shai, Liu, Patrick Y., Liu, Shiwei, Lodha, Rakesh, Looker, Katharine J., Lopez, Alan D., Lorkowski, Stefan, Lotufo, Paulo A., Lozano, Rafael, Lucas, Timothy C. D., Lunevicius, Raimundas, Mackay, Mark T., Maddison, Emilie R., El Razek, Hassan Magdy Abd, El Razek, Mohammed Magdy Abd, Majdan, Marek, Majdzadeh, Reza, Majeed, Azeem, Malekzadeh, Reza, Malhotra, Rajesh, Malta, Deborah Carvalho, Mamun, Abdullah A., Manguerra, Helena, Mantovani, Lorenzo G., Manyazewal, Tsegahun, Mapoma, Chabila C., Marks, Guy B., Martin, Randall V., Martinez-Raga, Jose, Martins-Melo, Francisco Rogerlândio, Martopullo, Ira, Mathur, Manu Raj, Mazidi, Mohsen, McAlinden, Colm, McGaughey, Madeline, McGrath, John J., McKee, Martin, Mehata, Suresh, Mehndiratta, Man Mohan, Meier, Toni, Meles, Kidanu Gebremariam, Memish, Ziad A., Mendoza, Walter, Mengesha, Melkamu Merid, Mengistie, Mubarek Abera, Mensah, George A., Mensink, Gert B. M., Mereta, Seid Tiku, Meretoja, Atte, Meretoja, Tuomo J., Mezgebe, Haftay Berhane, Micha, Renata, Millear, Anoushka, Miller, Ted R., Minnig, Shawn, Mirarefin, Mojde, Mirrakhimov, Erkin M., Misganaw, Awoke, Mishra, Shiva Raj, Mitchell, Philip B., Mohammad, Karzan Abdulmuhsin, Mohammed, Kedir Endris, Mohammed, Shafiu, Mohan, Murali B. V., Mokdad, Ali H., Mollenkopf, Sarah K., Monasta, Lorenzo, Hernandez, Julio Cesar Montañez, Montico, Marcella, Moradi-Lakeh, Maziar, Moraga, Paula, Morawska, Lidia, Morrison, Shane D., Moses, Mark W., Mountjoy-Venning, Cliff, Mueller, Ulrich O., Muller, Kate, Murthy, Gudlavalleti Venkata Satyanarayana, Musa, Kamarul Imran, Naghavi, Mohsen, Naheed, Aliya, Naidoo, Kovin S., Nangia, Vinay, Natarajan, Gopalakrishnan, Negoi, Ionut, Negoi, Ruxandra Irina, Nguyen, Cuong Tat, Nguyen, Grant, Nguyen, Minh, Nguyen, Quyen Le, Nguyen, Trang Huyen, Nichols, Emma, Ningrum, Dina Nur Anggraini, Nomura, Marika, Nong, Vuong Minh, Norheim, Ole F., Noubiap, Jean Jacques N., Obermeyer, Carla Makhlouf, Ogbo, Felix Akpojene, Oh, In-Hwan, Oladimeji, Olanrewaju, Olagunju, Andrew Toyin, Olagunju, Tinuke Oluwasefunmi, Olivares, Pedro R., Olsen, Helen E., Olusanya, Bolajoko Olubukunola, Olusanya, Jacob Olusegun, Ong, Kanyin, Oren, Eyal, Ortiz, Alberto, Owolabi, Mayowa O., Mahesh, P. A., Pana, Adrian, Panda, Basant Kumar, Panda-Jonas, Songhomitra, Papachristou, Christina, Park, Eun-Kee, Patton, George C., Paulson, Katherine, Pereira, David M., Perico, David Norberto, Pesudovs, Konrad, Petzold, Max, Phillips, Michael Robert, Pigott, David M., Pillay, Julian David, Pinho, Christine, Piradov, Michael A., Pishgar, Farhad, Poulton, Richie G., Pourmalek, Farshad, Qorbani, Mostafa, Radfar, Amir, Rafay, Anwar, Rao, Puja C., Rahimi-Movaghar, Vafa, Rahman, Mahfuzar, Ur Rahman, Mohammad Hifz, Rahman, Muhammad Aziz, Rai, Rajesh Kumar, Rajsic, Sasa, Ram, Usha, Ranabhat, Chhabi Lal, Rawaf, Salman, Reidy, Patrick, Reiner, Robert C., Reinig, Nikolas, Reitsma, Marissa B., Remuzzi, Giuseppe, Renzaho, Andre M. N., Resnikoff, Serge, Rezaei, Satar, Blancas, Maria Jesus Rios, Roba, Kedir Teji, Rojas-Rueda, David, Rokni, Mohammad Bagher, Roshandel, Gholamreza, Roth, Gregory A., Roy, Ambuj, Rubagotti, Enrico, Sadat, Nafis, Safdarian, Mahdi, Safi, Sare, Safiri, Saeid, Sagar, Rajesh, Salama, Joseph, Salomon, Joshua A., Samy, Abdallah M., Sanabria, Juan Ramon, Santomauro, Damian, Santos, Itamar S., Santos, João Vasco, Santric Milicevic, Milena M., Sartorius, Benn, Satpathy, Maheswar, Sawhney, Monika, Saxena, Sonia, Saylan, Mete I., Shirude, Shreya, Schmidt, Maria Inês, Schneider, Ione J. C., Schneider, Matthew T., Schöttker, Ben, Schutte, Aletta E., Schwebel, David C., Schwendicke, Falk, Seedat, Soraya, Sepanlou, Sadaf G., Servan-Mori, Edson E., Shackelford, Katya Anne, Shaheen, Amira, Shahraz, Saeid, Shaikh, Masood Ali, Shamsipour, Mansour, Shamsizadeh, Morteza, Islam, Sheikh Mohammed Shariful, Sharma, Jayendra, Sharma, Rajesh, She, Jun, Shi, Peilin, Shibuya, Kenji, Shields, Chloe, Shiferaw, Mekonnen Sisay, Shigematsu, Mika, Shin, Min-Jeong, Shiri, Rahman, Shirkoohi, Reza, Shishani, Kawkab, Shoman, Haitham, Shrime, Mark G., Silberberg, Donald H., Silva, Diego Augusto Santos, Silva, João Pedro, Silveira, Dayane Gabriele Alves, Singh, Jasvinder A., Singh, Virendra, Sinha, Dhirendra Narain, Skiadaresi, Eirini, Slepak, Erica Leigh, Sligar, Amber, Smith, Alison, Smith, David L., Smith, Mari, Sobaih, Badr H. A., Sobngwi, Eugene, Soljak, Michael, Soneji, Samir, Sorensen, Reed J. D., Sposato, Luciano A., Sreeramareddy, Chandrashekhar T., Srinivasan, Vinay, Stanaway, Jeffrey D., Stein, Dan J., Steiner, Caitlyn, Steinke, Sabine, Stokes, Mark Andrew, Strub, Bryan, Sufiyan, Muawiyyah Babale, Abdulkader, Rizwan Suliankatchi, Sunguya, Bruno F., Sur, Patrick J., Swaminathan, Soumya, Sykes, Bryan L., Sylte, Dillon O., Szoeke, Cassandra E. I., Tabarés-Seisdedos, Rafael, Tadakamadla, Santosh Kumar, Tandon, Nikhil, Tao, Tianchan, Tarekegn, Yihunie L., Tavakkoli, Mohammad, Taveira, Nuno, Tegegne, Teketo Kassaw, Shifa, Girma Temam, Terkawi, Abdullah Sulieman, Tessema, Gizachew Assefa, Thakur, J. S., Thankappan, Kavumpurathu Raman, Thrift, Amanda G., Tiruye, Tenaw Yimer, Tobe-Gai, Ruoyan, Topor-Madry, Roman, Torre, Anna, Tortajada, Miguel, Tran, Bach Xuan, Troeger, Christopher, Truelsen, Thomas, Tsoi, Derrick, Tuem, Kald Beshir, Tuzcu, Emin Murat, Tyrovolas, Stefanos, Ukwaja, Kingsley N., Uneke, Chigozie Jesse, Updike, Rachel, Uthman, Olalekan A., Van Boven, Job F. M., Van Donkelaar, Aaron, Varughese, Santosh, Vasankari, Tommi, Venketasubramanian, Narayanaswamy, Vidavalur, Ramesh, Violante, Francesco S., Vladimirov, Sergey K., Vlassov, Vasiliy Victorovich, Vollset, Stein Emil, Vos, Theo, Wadilo, Fiseha, Wakayo, Tolassa, Wallin, Mitchell T., Wang, Yuan-Pang, Weichenthal, Scott, Weiderpass, Elisabete, Weintraub, Robert G., Weiss, Daniel J., Werdecker, Andrea, Westerman, Ronny, Whiteford, Harvey A., Wijeratne, Tissa, Wiysonge, Charles Shey, Woldeyes, Belete Getahun, Wolfe, Charles D. A., Woodbrook, Rachel, Xavier, Denis, Xu, Gelin, Yadgir, Simon, Yakob, Bereket, Yan, Lijing L., Yano, Yuichiro, Yaseri, Mehdi, Ye, Pengpeng, Yimam, Hassen Hamid, Yip, Paul, Yonemoto, Naohiro, Yoon, Seok-Jun, Yotebieng, Marcel, Younis, Mustafa Z., Zaidi, Zoubida, El Sayed Zaki, Maysaa, Zavala-Arciniega, Luis, Zhang, Xueying, Zipkin, Ben, Zodpey, Sanjay, Lim, Stephen S., Murray, Christopher J. L.
• Other Authors: Fullman, N, Barber, R, Abajobir, A, Abate, K, Abbafati, C, Abbas, K, Abd-Allah, F, Abdulle, A, Abera, S, Aboyans, V, Abu-Raddad, L, Abu-Rmeileh, N, Adedeji, I, Adetokunboh, O, Afshin, A, Agrawal, A, Agrawal, S, Kiadaliri, A, Ahmadieh, H, Ahmed, M, Aichour, A, Aichour, I, Aichour, M, Aiyar, S, Akinyemi, R, Akseer, N, Al-Aly, Z, Alam, K, Alam, N, Alasfoor, D, Alene, K, Alizadeh-Navaei, R, Alkerwi, A, Alla, F, Allebeck, P, Allen, C, Al-Raddadi, R, Alsharif, U, Altirkawi, K, Alvis-Guzman, N, Amare, A, Amini, E, Ammar, W, Antonio, C, Ansari, H, Anwari, P, Arora, M, Artaman, A, Aryal, K, Asayesh, H
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: Lancet Publishing Group 2017
• Subjects: Medicine (all); Iceland
• Online Access: http://hdl.handle.net/10281/219077; https://doi.org/10.1016/S0140-6736(17)32336-X; http://www.journals.elsevier.com/the-lancet/

Background: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. Methods: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 25th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 975th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. Findings Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 567 (IQR 319-668) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (868, 95% uncertainty interval 846-889), Iceland (860, 841-876), and Sweden (856, 818-878) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (109, 96-119), the Central African Republic (110, 88-138), and Somalia (113, 95-131) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC ...