Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions
Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climat...
Published in: | Global Change Biology |
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Wiley Blackwell Publishing
2022
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Online Access: | https://hdl.handle.net/2434/924898 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187 |
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ftunivmilanoair:oai:air.unimi.it:2434/924898 2024-02-11T10:05:37+01:00 Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions Brambilla, Mattia Rubolini, Diego Appukuttan, Ojan Calvi, Gianpiero Karger, Dirk Nikolaus Kmecl, Primož Mihelič, Tomaž Sattler, Thomas Seaman, Benjamin Teufelbauer, Norbert Wahl, Johannes Celada, Claudio M. Brambilla D. Rubolini O. Appukuttan G. Calvi D.N. Karger P. Kmecl T. Mihelič T. Sattler B. Seaman N. Teufelbauer J. Wahl C. Celada 2022-07 https://hdl.handle.net/2434/924898 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187 eng eng Wiley Blackwell Publishing info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/35441422 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000789549700001 volume:28 issue:14 firstpage:4276 lastpage:4291 numberofpages:16 journal:GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY https://hdl.handle.net/2434/924898 doi:10.1111/gcb.16187 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85128406121 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Alp climate change community science distribution ecological realism protected area SDM extrapolation Settore BIO/07 - Ecologia info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2022 ftunivmilanoair https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187 2024-01-16T23:35:50Z Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high-resolution occurrence dataset (2901-12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%-59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified similar to 15,000 km(2) of the Alpine region as in-situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%-66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Lagopus muta The University of Milan: Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR) Global Change Biology 28 14 4276 4291 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Milan: Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivmilanoair |
language |
English |
topic |
Alp climate change community science distribution ecological realism protected area SDM extrapolation Settore BIO/07 - Ecologia |
spellingShingle |
Alp climate change community science distribution ecological realism protected area SDM extrapolation Settore BIO/07 - Ecologia Brambilla, Mattia Rubolini, Diego Appukuttan, Ojan Calvi, Gianpiero Karger, Dirk Nikolaus Kmecl, Primož Mihelič, Tomaž Sattler, Thomas Seaman, Benjamin Teufelbauer, Norbert Wahl, Johannes Celada, Claudio Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions |
topic_facet |
Alp climate change community science distribution ecological realism protected area SDM extrapolation Settore BIO/07 - Ecologia |
description |
Identifying climate refugia is key to effective biodiversity conservation under a changing climate, especially for mountain-specialist species adapted to cold conditions and highly threatened by climate warming. We combined species distribution models (SDMs) with climate forecasts to identify climate refugia for high-elevation bird species (Lagopus muta, Anthus spinoletta, Prunella collaris, Montifringilla nivalis) in the European Alps, where the ecological effects of climate changes are particularly evident and predicted to intensify. We considered future (2041-2070) conditions (SSP585 scenario, four climate models) and identified three types of refugia: (1) in-situ refugia potentially suitable under both current and future climate conditions, ex-situ refugia suitable (2) only in the future according to all future conditions, or (3) under at least three out of four future conditions. SDMs were based on a very large, high-resolution occurrence dataset (2901-12,601 independent records for each species) collected by citizen scientists. SDMs were fitted using different algorithms, balancing statistical accuracy, ecological realism and predictive/extrapolation ability. We selected the most reliable ones based on consistency between training and testing data and extrapolation over distant areas. Future predictions revealed that all species (with the partial exception of A. spinoletta) will undergo a range contraction towards higher elevations, losing 17%-59% of their current range (larger losses in L. muta). We identified similar to 15,000 km(2) of the Alpine region as in-situ refugia for at least three species, of which 44% are currently designated as protected areas (PAs; 18%-66% among countries). Our findings highlight the usefulness of spatially accurate data collected by citizen scientists, and the importance of model testing by extrapolating over independent areas. Climate refugia, which are only partly included within the current PAs system, should be priority sites for the conservation of Alpine ... |
author2 |
M. Brambilla D. Rubolini O. Appukuttan G. Calvi D.N. Karger P. Kmecl T. Mihelič T. Sattler B. Seaman N. Teufelbauer J. Wahl C. Celada |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Brambilla, Mattia Rubolini, Diego Appukuttan, Ojan Calvi, Gianpiero Karger, Dirk Nikolaus Kmecl, Primož Mihelič, Tomaž Sattler, Thomas Seaman, Benjamin Teufelbauer, Norbert Wahl, Johannes Celada, Claudio |
author_facet |
Brambilla, Mattia Rubolini, Diego Appukuttan, Ojan Calvi, Gianpiero Karger, Dirk Nikolaus Kmecl, Primož Mihelič, Tomaž Sattler, Thomas Seaman, Benjamin Teufelbauer, Norbert Wahl, Johannes Celada, Claudio |
author_sort |
Brambilla, Mattia |
title |
Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions |
title_short |
Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions |
title_full |
Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions |
title_fullStr |
Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation Alpine birds under current climate warming predictions |
title_sort |
identifying climate refugia for high‐elevation alpine birds under current climate warming predictions |
publisher |
Wiley Blackwell Publishing |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
https://hdl.handle.net/2434/924898 https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187 |
genre |
Lagopus muta |
genre_facet |
Lagopus muta |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/35441422 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/wos/WOS:000789549700001 volume:28 issue:14 firstpage:4276 lastpage:4291 numberofpages:16 journal:GLOBAL CHANGE BIOLOGY https://hdl.handle.net/2434/924898 doi:10.1111/gcb.16187 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/scopus/2-s2.0-85128406121 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1111/gcb.16187 |
container_title |
Global Change Biology |
container_volume |
28 |
container_issue |
14 |
container_start_page |
4276 |
op_container_end_page |
4291 |
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1790602715496185856 |