PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS
This thesis deals with use of qualitative and quantitative probabilistic models for the animal-derived food safety management. Four unrelated models are presented: three quantitative and one qualitative. Two of the quantitative models concern the risk posed by pathogens in raw milk, in the first stu...
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Format: | Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
Language: | Italian |
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Università degli Studi di Milano
2015
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2434/339138 https://doi.org/10.13130/m-crotta_phd2015-12-10 |
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ftunivmilanoair:oai:air.unimi.it:2434/339138 2024-02-11T10:02:12+01:00 PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS M. Crotta docente guida: R. Rizzi M. Crotta RIZZI, RITA MARIA 2015-12-10 http://hdl.handle.net/2434/339138 https://doi.org/10.13130/m-crotta_phd2015-12-10 ita ita Università degli Studi di Milano http://hdl.handle.net/2434/339138 doi:10.13130/m-crotta_phd2015-12-10 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess risk analysi quantitative risk assessment qualitative risk assessment sensitivity analysi simulation Settore AGR/15 - Scienze e Tecnologie Alimentari Settore BIO/19 - Microbiologia Generale info:eu-repo/semantics/doctoralThesis 2015 ftunivmilanoair https://doi.org/10.13130/m-crotta_phd2015-12-10 2024-01-16T23:25:34Z This thesis deals with use of qualitative and quantitative probabilistic models for the animal-derived food safety management. Four unrelated models are presented: three quantitative and one qualitative. Two of the quantitative models concern the risk posed by pathogens in raw milk, in the first study, a probabilistic approach for the inclusion of the variability and the uncertainty in the consumers’ habits and the bacterial pathogenic potential is proposed while the second study, demonstrate how the overlook of the relationship between the storage time and temperature has led to overestimated results in raw milk-related models published so far and an equation to address the issue is provided. In the third study, quantitative modelling techniques are used to simulate the dynamics underlying the spread of Campylobacter in broiler flocks and quantify the potential effects that different on-farm mitigation strategies or management measures have on the microbial load in the intestine of infected birds at the end of the rearing period. In the qualitative study, a general approach for the estimation of the likelihoods of introduction of live parasites in aquaculture implants and the commercialization of infested product is outlined by using the example of Anisakids in farmed Atlantic salmon. Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis Atlantic salmon The University of Milan: Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR) |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
The University of Milan: Archivio Istituzionale della Ricerca (AIR) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivmilanoair |
language |
Italian |
topic |
risk analysi quantitative risk assessment qualitative risk assessment sensitivity analysi simulation Settore AGR/15 - Scienze e Tecnologie Alimentari Settore BIO/19 - Microbiologia Generale |
spellingShingle |
risk analysi quantitative risk assessment qualitative risk assessment sensitivity analysi simulation Settore AGR/15 - Scienze e Tecnologie Alimentari Settore BIO/19 - Microbiologia Generale M. Crotta PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS |
topic_facet |
risk analysi quantitative risk assessment qualitative risk assessment sensitivity analysi simulation Settore AGR/15 - Scienze e Tecnologie Alimentari Settore BIO/19 - Microbiologia Generale |
description |
This thesis deals with use of qualitative and quantitative probabilistic models for the animal-derived food safety management. Four unrelated models are presented: three quantitative and one qualitative. Two of the quantitative models concern the risk posed by pathogens in raw milk, in the first study, a probabilistic approach for the inclusion of the variability and the uncertainty in the consumers’ habits and the bacterial pathogenic potential is proposed while the second study, demonstrate how the overlook of the relationship between the storage time and temperature has led to overestimated results in raw milk-related models published so far and an equation to address the issue is provided. In the third study, quantitative modelling techniques are used to simulate the dynamics underlying the spread of Campylobacter in broiler flocks and quantify the potential effects that different on-farm mitigation strategies or management measures have on the microbial load in the intestine of infected birds at the end of the rearing period. In the qualitative study, a general approach for the estimation of the likelihoods of introduction of live parasites in aquaculture implants and the commercialization of infested product is outlined by using the example of Anisakids in farmed Atlantic salmon. |
author2 |
docente guida: R. Rizzi M. Crotta RIZZI, RITA MARIA |
format |
Doctoral or Postdoctoral Thesis |
author |
M. Crotta |
author_facet |
M. Crotta |
author_sort |
M. Crotta |
title |
PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS |
title_short |
PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS |
title_full |
PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS |
title_fullStr |
PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS |
title_full_unstemmed |
PROBABILISTIC MODELLING IN FOOD SAFETY: A SCIENCE-BASED APPROACH FOR POLICY DECISIONS |
title_sort |
probabilistic modelling in food safety: a science-based approach for policy decisions |
publisher |
Università degli Studi di Milano |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2434/339138 https://doi.org/10.13130/m-crotta_phd2015-12-10 |
genre |
Atlantic salmon |
genre_facet |
Atlantic salmon |
op_relation |
http://hdl.handle.net/2434/339138 doi:10.13130/m-crotta_phd2015-12-10 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.13130/m-crotta_phd2015-12-10 |
_version_ |
1790598105262981120 |