Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions
Decadal predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. In this study we investigate the prediction skill of the full underlying surface temperature distributions on global and European scales. We investigate initialized hindcast simulations of the Max Pla...
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American Geophysical Union
2024
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Online Access: | https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107838 https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202024%20-%20D%C3%BCsterhus%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Distributions.pdf |
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ftunivmaynooth:oai:mural.maynoothuniversity.ie:18603 2024-06-23T07:55:04+00:00 Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions Düsterhus, Andre Brune, Sebastian 2024 text https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107838 https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202024%20-%20D%C3%BCsterhus%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Distributions.pdf en eng American Geophysical Union https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202024%20-%20D%C3%BCsterhus%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Distributions.pdf Düsterhus, Andre and Brune, Sebastian (2024) Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (11). ISSN 0094-8276 Article PeerReviewed 2024 ftunivmaynooth https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107838 2024-06-04T23:59:50Z Decadal predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. In this study we investigate the prediction skill of the full underlying surface temperature distributions on global and European scales. We investigate initialized hindcast simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model decadal prediction system and compare the distribution of seasonal daily temperatures with estimates of the climatology and uninitialized historical simulations. In the analysis we show that the initialized prediction system has advantages in particular in the North Atlantic area and allow so to make reliable predictions for the whole temperature spectrum for two to 10 years ahead. We also demonstrate that the capability of initialized climate predictions to predict the temperature distribution depends on the season Article in Journal/Newspaper North Atlantic Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (National University of Ireland) Geophysical Research Letters 51 11 |
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Open Polar |
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Maynooth University ePrints and eTheses Archive (National University of Ireland) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivmaynooth |
language |
English |
description |
Decadal predictions focus regularly on the predictability of single values, like means or extremes. In this study we investigate the prediction skill of the full underlying surface temperature distributions on global and European scales. We investigate initialized hindcast simulations of the Max Planck Institute Earth system model decadal prediction system and compare the distribution of seasonal daily temperatures with estimates of the climatology and uninitialized historical simulations. In the analysis we show that the initialized prediction system has advantages in particular in the North Atlantic area and allow so to make reliable predictions for the whole temperature spectrum for two to 10 years ahead. We also demonstrate that the capability of initialized climate predictions to predict the temperature distribution depends on the season |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Düsterhus, Andre Brune, Sebastian |
spellingShingle |
Düsterhus, Andre Brune, Sebastian Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions |
author_facet |
Düsterhus, Andre Brune, Sebastian |
author_sort |
Düsterhus, Andre |
title |
Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions |
title_short |
Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions |
title_full |
Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions |
title_fullStr |
Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions |
title_full_unstemmed |
Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions |
title_sort |
decadal predictability of seasonal temperature distributions |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2024 |
url |
https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/ https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107838 https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202024%20-%20D%C3%BCsterhus%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Distributions.pdf |
genre |
North Atlantic |
genre_facet |
North Atlantic |
op_relation |
https://mural.maynoothuniversity.ie/18603/1/Geophysical%20Research%20Letters%20-%202024%20-%20D%C3%BCsterhus%20-%20Decadal%20Predictability%20of%20Seasonal%20Temperature%20Distributions.pdf Düsterhus, Andre and Brune, Sebastian (2024) Decadal Predictability of Seasonal Temperature Distributions. Geophysical Research Letters, 51 (11). ISSN 0094-8276 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023GL107838 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
51 |
container_issue |
11 |
_version_ |
1802647477827928064 |