Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study
Abstract Background Nunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the cour...
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ftunivmanitoba:oai:mspace.lib.umanitoba.ca:1993/36515 2023-06-18T03:39:39+02:00 Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. 2022-06-01T04:10:36Z application/pdf http://hdl.handle.net/1993/36515 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 en eng BMC Public Health. 2022 May 25;22(1):1042 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 http://hdl.handle.net/1993/36515 open access The Author(s) Journal Article 2022 ftunivmanitoba https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 2023-06-04T17:44:20Z Abstract Background Nunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks. Methods We used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals. Results We found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015—5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880—4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593—2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798—15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222—265) even in the absence of NPIs. Conclusions NPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Nunavut MSpace at the University of Manitoba Arctic Canada Nunavut BMC Public Health 22 1 |
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MSpace at the University of Manitoba |
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ftunivmanitoba |
language |
English |
description |
Abstract Background Nunavut, the northernmost Arctic territory of Canada, experienced three community outbreaks of the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) from early November 2020 to mid-June 2021. We sought to investigate how non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) and vaccination affected the course of these outbreaks. Methods We used an agent-based model of disease transmission to simulate COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut. The model encapsulated demographics and household structure of the population, the effect of NPIs, and daily number of vaccine doses administered. We fitted the model to inferred, back-calculated infections from incidence data reported from October 2020 to June 2021. We then compared the fit of the scenario based on case count data with several counterfactual scenarios without the effect of NPIs, without vaccination, and with a hypothetical accelerated vaccination program whereby 98% of the vaccine supply was administered to eligible individuals. Results We found that, without a territory-wide lockdown during the first COVID-19 outbreak in November 2020, the peak of infections would have been 4.7 times higher with a total of 5,404 (95% CrI: 5,015—5,798) infections before the start of vaccination on January 6, 2021. Without effective NPIs, we estimated a total of 4,290 (95% CrI: 3,880—4,708) infections during the second outbreak under the pace of vaccination administered in Nunavut. In a hypothetical accelerated vaccine rollout, the total infections during the second Nunavut outbreak would have been 58% lower, to 1,812 (95% CrI: 1,593—2,039) infections. Vaccination was estimated to have the largest impact during the outbreak in April 2021, averting 15,196 (95% CrI: 14,798—15,591) infections if the disease had spread through Nunavut communities. Accelerated vaccination would have further reduced the total infections to 243 (95% CrI: 222—265) even in the absence of NPIs. Conclusions NPIs have been essential in mitigating pandemic outbreaks in this large, geographically distanced and remote ... |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. |
spellingShingle |
Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
author_facet |
Vilches, Thomas N. Abdollahi, Elaheh Cipriano, Lauren E. Haworth-Brockman, Margaret Keynan, Yoav Sheffield, Holden Langley, Joanne M. Moghadas, Seyed M. |
author_sort |
Vilches, Thomas N. |
title |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_short |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_full |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_fullStr |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_full_unstemmed |
Impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on COVID-19 outbreaks in Nunavut, Canada: a Canadian Immunization Research Network (CIRN) study |
title_sort |
impact of non-pharmaceutical interventions and vaccination on covid-19 outbreaks in nunavut, canada: a canadian immunization research network (cirn) study |
publishDate |
2022 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/1993/36515 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 |
geographic |
Arctic Canada Nunavut |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Canada Nunavut |
genre |
Arctic Nunavut |
genre_facet |
Arctic Nunavut |
op_relation |
BMC Public Health. 2022 May 25;22(1):1042 https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 http://hdl.handle.net/1993/36515 |
op_rights |
open access The Author(s) |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1186/s12889-022-13432-1 |
container_title |
BMC Public Health |
container_volume |
22 |
container_issue |
1 |
_version_ |
1769004369135534080 |