Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus
International audience Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plagu...
Published in: | PLoS Computational Biology |
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Main Authors: | , , , , |
Other Authors: | , , , , , , , , , , |
Format: | Article in Journal/Newspaper |
Language: | English |
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HAL CCSD
2013
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Online Access: | https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/file/2013_Gascuel_pcbi_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
Université de Lyon: HAL |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlyon |
language |
English |
topic |
TAILED PRAIRIE DOGS RATTUS-RATTUS INFECTIOUS-DISEASES XENOPSYLLA-CHEOPIS VECTOR COMPETENCE SPECIAL EMPHASIS SYLVATIC PLAGUE YERSINIA-PESTIS METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
spellingShingle |
TAILED PRAIRIE DOGS RATTUS-RATTUS INFECTIOUS-DISEASES XENOPSYLLA-CHEOPIS VECTOR COMPETENCE SPECIAL EMPHASIS SYLVATIC PLAGUE YERSINIA-PESTIS METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] Gascuel, Fanny Choisy, Marc Duplantier, Jean-Marc, J.-M. Débarre, Florence Brouat, Carine Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus |
topic_facet |
TAILED PRAIRIE DOGS RATTUS-RATTUS INFECTIOUS-DISEASES XENOPSYLLA-CHEOPIS VECTOR COMPETENCE SPECIAL EMPHASIS SYLVATIC PLAGUE YERSINIA-PESTIS METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] |
description |
International audience Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. |
author2 |
Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations (UMR CBGP) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) University of Oxford Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) University of British Columbia (UBC) University of Idaho Moscow, USA ATI-type III program of the Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (CB); NSF DMS 453, 0540392 |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Gascuel, Fanny Choisy, Marc Duplantier, Jean-Marc, J.-M. Débarre, Florence Brouat, Carine |
author_facet |
Gascuel, Fanny Choisy, Marc Duplantier, Jean-Marc, J.-M. Débarre, Florence Brouat, Carine |
author_sort |
Gascuel, Fanny |
title |
Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus |
title_short |
Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus |
title_full |
Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus |
title_fullStr |
Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus |
title_full_unstemmed |
Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus |
title_sort |
host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the malagasy focus |
publisher |
HAL CCSD |
publishDate |
2013 |
url |
https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/file/2013_Gascuel_pcbi_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 |
genre |
Rattus rattus |
genre_facet |
Rattus rattus |
op_source |
ISSN: 1553-734X EISSN: 1553-7358 PLoS Computational Biology https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316 PLoS Computational Biology, 2013, 9 (5), ⟨10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039⟩ |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/23675291 hal-02646316 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/file/2013_Gascuel_pcbi_1.pdf doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 PRODINRA: 208620 PUBMED: 23675291 WOS: 000320032100004 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 |
container_title |
PLoS Computational Biology |
container_volume |
9 |
container_issue |
5 |
container_start_page |
e1003039 |
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1799488203178115072 |
spelling |
ftunivlyon:oai:HAL:hal-02646316v1 2024-05-19T07:47:44+00:00 Host resistance, population structure and the long-term persistence of bubonic plague: contributions of a modelling approach in the Malagasy focus Gascuel, Fanny Choisy, Marc Duplantier, Jean-Marc, J.-M. Débarre, Florence Brouat, Carine Centre de Biologie pour la Gestion des Populations (UMR CBGP) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-Institut National de la Recherche Agronomique (INRA)-Centre international d'études supérieures en sciences agronomiques (Montpellier SupAgro)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD France-Sud )-Institut national d’études supérieures agronomiques de Montpellier (Montpellier SupAgro) École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon) Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (IRD) University of Oxford Institut des Sciences de l'Evolution de Montpellier (UMR ISEM) Centre de Coopération Internationale en Recherche Agronomique pour le Développement (Cirad)-École Pratique des Hautes Études (EPHE) Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université Paris Sciences et Lettres (PSL)-Université de Montpellier (UM)-Institut de recherche pour le développement IRD : UR226-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS) University of British Columbia (UBC) University of Idaho Moscow, USA ATI-type III program of the Institut de Recherche pour le Developpement (CB); NSF DMS 453, 0540392 2013 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/file/2013_Gascuel_pcbi_1.pdf https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 en eng HAL CCSD Public Library of Science info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/doi/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 info:eu-repo/semantics/altIdentifier/pmid/23675291 hal-02646316 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316 https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/document https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316/file/2013_Gascuel_pcbi_1.pdf doi:10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 PRODINRA: 208620 PUBMED: 23675291 WOS: 000320032100004 info:eu-repo/semantics/OpenAccess ISSN: 1553-734X EISSN: 1553-7358 PLoS Computational Biology https://hal.inrae.fr/hal-02646316 PLoS Computational Biology, 2013, 9 (5), ⟨10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039⟩ TAILED PRAIRIE DOGS RATTUS-RATTUS INFECTIOUS-DISEASES XENOPSYLLA-CHEOPIS VECTOR COMPETENCE SPECIAL EMPHASIS SYLVATIC PLAGUE YERSINIA-PESTIS METAPOPULATION DYNAMICS TRANSMISSION [SDV]Life Sciences [q-bio] info:eu-repo/semantics/article Journal articles 2013 ftunivlyon https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1003039 2024-05-02T00:28:35Z International audience Although bubonic plague is an endemic zoonosis in many countries around the world, the factors responsible for the persistence of this highly virulent disease remain poorly known. Classically, the endemic persistence of plague is suspected to be due to the coexistence of plague resistant and plague susceptible rodents in natural foci, and/or to a metapopulation structure of reservoirs. Here, we test separately the effect of each of these factors on the long-term persistence of plague. We analyse the dynamics and equilibria of a model of plague propagation, consistent with plague ecology in Madagascar, a major focus where this disease is endemic since the 1920s in central highlands. By combining deterministic and stochastic analyses of this model, and including sensitivity analyses, we show that (i) endemicity is favoured by intermediate host population sizes, (ii) in large host populations, the presence of resistant rats is sufficient to explain long-term persistence of plague, and (iii) the metapopulation structure of susceptible host populations alone can also account for plague endemicity, thanks to both subdivision and the subsequent reduction in the size of subpopulations, and extinction-recolonization dynamics of the disease. In the light of these results, we suggest scenarios to explain the localized presence of plague in Madagascar. Article in Journal/Newspaper Rattus rattus Université de Lyon: HAL PLoS Computational Biology 9 5 e1003039 |