Going with the flow : Hydrologic response of middle Lena River (Siberia) to the climate variability and change

• Published in: Journal of Hydrology
• Main Authors: Gautier, Emmanuèle, Depret, Thomas, Costard, F., Virmoux, Clément, Fedorov, Alexander, A., Grancher, Delphine, Konstantinov, Pavel, Brunstein, Daniel
• Other Authors: Laboratoire de géographie physique : Environnements Quaternaires et Actuels (LGP), Université Paris 1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (UP1)-Université Paris-Est Créteil Val-de-Marne - Paris 12 (UPEC UP12)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Environnement, Ville, Société (EVS), École normale supérieure de Lyon (ENS de Lyon)-École des Mines de Saint-Étienne (Mines Saint-Étienne MSE), Institut Mines-Télécom Paris (IMT)-Institut Mines-Télécom Paris (IMT)-Université Lumière - Lyon 2 (UL2)-Université Jean Moulin - Lyon 3 (UJML), Université de Lyon-Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées de Lyon (INSA Lyon), Université de Lyon-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Institut National des Sciences Appliquées (INSA)-Université Jean Monnet - Saint-Étienne (UJM)-École Nationale des Travaux Publics de l'État (ENTPE)-École nationale supérieure d'architecture de Lyon (ENSAL)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Géosciences Paris Sud (GEOPS), Université Paris-Sud - Paris 11 (UP11)-Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (CNRS), Melnikov Permafrost Institute, Siberian Branch of the Russian Academy of Sciences (SB RAS)
• Format: Article in Journal/Newspaper
• Language: English
• Published: HAL CCSD 2018
• Subjects: [SDU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]; [SDU.STU]Sciences of the Universe [physics]/Earth Sciences; lena river; permafrost; Siberia
• Online Access: https://hal.science/hal-01735691; https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jhydrol.2017.12.034

International audience Recent observations indicate that over the last decades, climate change has increasingly influenced the frequency, intensity and duration of extreme climatic and hydrologic events. The main aim of this study is to determine the hydrologic response, especially the flood evolution, of the Lena River in Eastern Siberia to ongoing climate change. Draining the coldest region of the Northern Hemisphere, the Lena River is impacted by global warming, which is particularly pronounced in periglacial areas characterized by deep and continuous permafrost. We document the hydrologic variability of the Middle Lena River, first by characterizing trend and stationarity of monthly discharges. Second, we analyze on the basis of the peak over threshold method (POT) the temporal evolution of intensity and duration of three discharge classes: bar-full discharge, bank-full discharge and large floods. Finally, we also determined the dates of the flood beginning and of the flood peak. Data on mean monthly discharge and flood peaks are available since 1936 and daily discharges since 1954. Our results provide evidence for a net hydrologic change with an increase in the intensity and duration of floods in the two decades ending in 2012. The frequency of high floods is unprecedented, and small floods no longer occur. The tail of the temporal distribution of the flood peak is also changing. More frequent early floods are occurring in spring with secondary flood peaks in summer, the latest probably represents the most striking change. Furthermore, the changes have been accelerating since 2004. Finally, two islands were instrumented (2008-2012) in order to study the flooding dynamics with a better precision.