The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation
An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilat...
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:35277 2024-05-19T07:34:47+00:00 The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation Crespin, Elisabeth Goosse, Hugues Fichefet, Thierry Mann, M. E. UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique 2009 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35277 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 eng eng Copernicus Publications boreal:35277 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35277 doi:10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:EISSN:1814-9332 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climate of the Past, Vol. 5, no. 3, p. 389-401 (2009) atmospheric circulation climate modeling paleoceanography paleoclimate paleoenvironment surface temperature three-dimensional modeling CISM : CECI info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2009 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 2024-04-24T01:50:25Z An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470-1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Siberia DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) Climate of the Past 5 3 389 401 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
topic |
atmospheric circulation climate modeling paleoceanography paleoclimate paleoenvironment surface temperature three-dimensional modeling CISM : CECI |
spellingShingle |
atmospheric circulation climate modeling paleoceanography paleoclimate paleoenvironment surface temperature three-dimensional modeling CISM : CECI Crespin, Elisabeth Goosse, Hugues Fichefet, Thierry Mann, M. E. The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
topic_facet |
atmospheric circulation climate modeling paleoceanography paleoclimate paleoenvironment surface temperature three-dimensional modeling CISM : CECI |
description |
An ensemble of simulations of the climate of the past millennium conducted with a three-dimensional climate model of intermediate complexity are constrained to follow temperature histories obtained from a recent compilation of well-calibrated surface temperature proxies using a simple data assimilation technique. Those simulations provide a reconstruction of the climate of the Arctic that is compatible with the model physics, the forcing applied and the proxy records. Available observational data, proxy-based reconstructions and our model results suggest that the Arctic climate is characterized by substantial variations in surface temperature over the past millennium. Though the most recent decades are likely to be the warmest of the past millennium, we find evidence for substantial past warming episodes in the Arctic. In particular, our model reconstructions show a prominent warm event during the period 1470-1520. This warm period is likely related to the internal variability of the climate system, that is the variability present in the absence of any change in external forcing. We examine the roles of competing mechanisms that could potentially produce this anomaly. This study leads us to conclude that changes in atmospheric circulation, through enhanced southwesterly winds towards northern Europe, Siberia and Canada, are likely the main cause of the late 15th/early 16th century Arctic warming. |
author2 |
UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Crespin, Elisabeth Goosse, Hugues Fichefet, Thierry Mann, M. E. |
author_facet |
Crespin, Elisabeth Goosse, Hugues Fichefet, Thierry Mann, M. E. |
author_sort |
Crespin, Elisabeth |
title |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_short |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_full |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_fullStr |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_full_unstemmed |
The 15th century Arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
title_sort |
15th century arctic warming in coupled model simulations with data assimilation |
publisher |
Copernicus Publications |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35277 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 |
genre |
Arctic Siberia |
genre_facet |
Arctic Siberia |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol. 5, no. 3, p. 389-401 (2009) |
op_relation |
boreal:35277 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35277 doi:10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:EISSN:1814-9332 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-5-389-2009 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
5 |
container_issue |
3 |
container_start_page |
389 |
op_container_end_page |
401 |
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1799472946737053696 |