Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate
Simulations performed with general circulation models and a model of intermediate complexity show that the variability of the September sea ice extent in the Arctic of the 21st century increases first when the mean extent decreases from present-day values. A maximum of the variance is found when the...
Published in: | Geophysical Research Letters |
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American Geophysical Union
2009
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35121 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040546 |
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:35121 2024-05-19T07:30:02+00:00 Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate Goosse, Hugues Arzel, O. Bitz, Cecilia M. de Montety, Anne Vancoppenolle, Martin UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2009 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35121 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040546 eng eng American Geophysical Union boreal:35121 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35121 doi:10.1029/2009GL040546 urn:ISSN:0094-8276 urn:EISSN:1944-8007 Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, p. L23702 (2009) info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2009 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040546 2024-04-24T01:50:25Z Simulations performed with general circulation models and a model of intermediate complexity show that the variability of the September sea ice extent in the Arctic of the 21st century increases first when the mean extent decreases from present-day values. A maximum of the variance is found when the mean September ice extent is around 3 million km(2). For lower extents, the variance declines with the mean extent. The behavior is clearly different in Antarctica where the variance always decreases as the mean ice extent decreases, following roughly a square-root law compatible with very simple geometric arguments. Several mechanisms are responsible for the non-linear behavior of the Arctic. However, the strong interhemispheric contrast suggests that the difference in geometrical setting, with an open ocean in the south and a semi-closed basin in the north, plays a significant role. Citation: Goosse, H., O. Arzel, C. M. Bitz, A. de Montety, and M. Vancoppenolle (2009), Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23702, doi:10.1029/2009GL040546. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Sea ice DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) Geophysical Research Letters 36 23 |
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DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
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ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
description |
Simulations performed with general circulation models and a model of intermediate complexity show that the variability of the September sea ice extent in the Arctic of the 21st century increases first when the mean extent decreases from present-day values. A maximum of the variance is found when the mean September ice extent is around 3 million km(2). For lower extents, the variance declines with the mean extent. The behavior is clearly different in Antarctica where the variance always decreases as the mean ice extent decreases, following roughly a square-root law compatible with very simple geometric arguments. Several mechanisms are responsible for the non-linear behavior of the Arctic. However, the strong interhemispheric contrast suggests that the difference in geometrical setting, with an open ocean in the south and a semi-closed basin in the north, plays a significant role. Citation: Goosse, H., O. Arzel, C. M. Bitz, A. de Montety, and M. Vancoppenolle (2009), Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate, Geophys. Res. Lett., 36, L23702, doi:10.1029/2009GL040546. |
author2 |
UCL - SC/PHYS - Département de physique UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goosse, Hugues Arzel, O. Bitz, Cecilia M. de Montety, Anne Vancoppenolle, Martin |
spellingShingle |
Goosse, Hugues Arzel, O. Bitz, Cecilia M. de Montety, Anne Vancoppenolle, Martin Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate |
author_facet |
Goosse, Hugues Arzel, O. Bitz, Cecilia M. de Montety, Anne Vancoppenolle, Martin |
author_sort |
Goosse, Hugues |
title |
Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate |
title_short |
Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate |
title_full |
Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate |
title_fullStr |
Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Increased variability of the Arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate |
title_sort |
increased variability of the arctic summer ice extent in a warmer climate |
publisher |
American Geophysical Union |
publishDate |
2009 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35121 https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040546 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctica Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Geophysical Research Letters, Vol. 36, p. L23702 (2009) |
op_relation |
boreal:35121 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/35121 doi:10.1029/2009GL040546 urn:ISSN:0094-8276 urn:EISSN:1944-8007 |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1029/2009GL040546 |
container_title |
Geophysical Research Letters |
container_volume |
36 |
container_issue |
23 |
_version_ |
1799483228315189248 |