Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models
Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in...
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:214001 2024-05-12T07:53:58+00:00 Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Hawkins, Ed UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2019 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/214001 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 eng eng Springer Nature boreal:214001 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/214001 doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 urn:ISSN:0930-7575 urn:EISSN:1432-0894 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, p. 2775–2797 (2019) Predictability Deep convection Model intercomparison Southern Ocean Sea ice info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2019 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 2024-04-17T16:49:32Z Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in September 2014 to record low in February 2017. In this work, a set of six state-of-the-art global climate models is used to evaluate the potential predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at such timescales. This first multi-model study of Antarctic sea ice predictability reveals that the ice edge location can potentially be predicted up to 3 years in advance. However, the ice edge location predictability shows contrasted seasonal performances, with high predictability in winter and no predictability in summer. The reemergence of the predictability from one winter to next is provided by the ocean through its large thermal inertia. Sea surface heat anomalies are stored at depth at the end of the winter and influences the sea ice advance the following year as they resurface. The effectiveness of this mechanism across models is found to depend upon the depth of the mixed layer. One should be very cautious about these potential predictability estimates as there is evidence that the Antarctic sea ice predictability is promoted by deep Southern Ocean convection. We therefore suspect models with excessive convection to show higher sea ice potential predictability results due to an incorrect representation of the Southern Ocean. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic Climate Dynamics 52 5-6 2775 2797 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
topic |
Predictability Deep convection Model intercomparison Southern Ocean Sea ice |
spellingShingle |
Predictability Deep convection Model intercomparison Southern Ocean Sea ice Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Hawkins, Ed Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
topic_facet |
Predictability Deep convection Model intercomparison Southern Ocean Sea ice |
description |
Satellite observations show a small overall increase in Antarctic sea ice extent (SIE) over the period 1979–2015. However, this upward trend needs to be balanced against recent pronounced SIE fluctuations occurring there. In the space of 3 years, the SIE sank from its highest value ever reached in September 2014 to record low in February 2017. In this work, a set of six state-of-the-art global climate models is used to evaluate the potential predictability of the Antarctic sea ice at such timescales. This first multi-model study of Antarctic sea ice predictability reveals that the ice edge location can potentially be predicted up to 3 years in advance. However, the ice edge location predictability shows contrasted seasonal performances, with high predictability in winter and no predictability in summer. The reemergence of the predictability from one winter to next is provided by the ocean through its large thermal inertia. Sea surface heat anomalies are stored at depth at the end of the winter and influences the sea ice advance the following year as they resurface. The effectiveness of this mechanism across models is found to depend upon the depth of the mixed layer. One should be very cautious about these potential predictability estimates as there is evidence that the Antarctic sea ice predictability is promoted by deep Southern Ocean convection. We therefore suspect models with excessive convection to show higher sea ice potential predictability results due to an incorrect representation of the Southern Ocean. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Hawkins, Ed |
author_facet |
Marchi, Sylvain Fichefet, Thierry Goosse, Hugues Zunz, Violette Tietsche, Steffen Day, Jonathan J. Hawkins, Ed |
author_sort |
Marchi, Sylvain |
title |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_short |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_full |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_fullStr |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_full_unstemmed |
Reemergence of Antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
title_sort |
reemergence of antarctic sea ice predictability and its link to deep ocean mixing in global climate models |
publisher |
Springer Nature |
publishDate |
2019 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/214001 https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 |
geographic |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
geographic_facet |
Antarctic Southern Ocean The Antarctic |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice Southern Ocean |
op_source |
Climate Dynamics, Vol. 52, p. 2775–2797 (2019) |
op_relation |
boreal:214001 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/214001 doi:10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 urn:ISSN:0930-7575 urn:EISSN:1432-0894 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1007/s00382-018-4292-2 |
container_title |
Climate Dynamics |
container_volume |
52 |
container_issue |
5-6 |
container_start_page |
2775 |
op_container_end_page |
2797 |
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1798845903936684032 |