Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach
A global sensitivity analysis is performed to describe the effects of astronomical forcing on the climate–vegetation system simulated by the model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM in interglacial con- ditions. The methodology relies on the estimation of sensitivity measures, using a Gaussian pr...
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:181335 2024-05-12T08:00:36+00:00 Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach Bounceur, Nabila Crucifix, Michel Wilkinson, R. D. UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2015 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181335 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015 eng eng Copernicus GmbH info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC// boreal:181335 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181335 doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015 urn:ISSN:2190-4979 urn:EISSN:2190-4987 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 6, no.1, p. 205-224 (2015) info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2015 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015 2024-04-17T17:00:26Z A global sensitivity analysis is performed to describe the effects of astronomical forcing on the climate–vegetation system simulated by the model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM in interglacial con- ditions. The methodology relies on the estimation of sensitivity measures, using a Gaussian process emulator as a fast surrogate of the climate model, calibrated on a set of well-chosen experiments. The outputs considered are the annual mean temperature and precipitation and the growing degree days (GDD). The experiments were run on two distinct land surface schemes to estimate the importance of vegetation feedbacks on climate variance. This analysis provides a spatial description of the variance due to the factors and their combinations, in the form of “fingerprints†obtained from the covariance indices. The results are broadly consistent with the current un- derstanding of Earth’s climate response to the astronomical forcing. In particular, precession and obliquity are found to contribute in LOVECLIM equally to GDD in the Northern Hemisphere, and the effect of obliquity on the response of Southern Hemisphere temperature dominates precession effects. Precession dominates precipi- tation changes in subtropical areas. Compared to standard approaches based on a small number of simulations, the methodology presented here allows us to identify more systematically regions susceptible to experiencing rapid climate change in response to the smooth astronomical forcing change. In particular, we find that using interactive vegetation significantly enhances the expected rates of climate change, specifically in the Sahel (up to 50 % precipitation change in 1000 years) and in the Canadian Arctic region (up to 3â—¦ in 1000 years). None of the tested astronomical configurations were found to induce multiple steady states, but, at low obliquity, we observed the development of an oscillatory pattern that has already been reported in LOVECLIM. Although the mathematics of the analysis are fairly straightforward, the ... Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Climate change DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) Arctic Earth System Dynamics 6 1 205 224 |
institution |
Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
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ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
description |
A global sensitivity analysis is performed to describe the effects of astronomical forcing on the climate–vegetation system simulated by the model of intermediate complexity LOVECLIM in interglacial con- ditions. The methodology relies on the estimation of sensitivity measures, using a Gaussian process emulator as a fast surrogate of the climate model, calibrated on a set of well-chosen experiments. The outputs considered are the annual mean temperature and precipitation and the growing degree days (GDD). The experiments were run on two distinct land surface schemes to estimate the importance of vegetation feedbacks on climate variance. This analysis provides a spatial description of the variance due to the factors and their combinations, in the form of “fingerprints†obtained from the covariance indices. The results are broadly consistent with the current un- derstanding of Earth’s climate response to the astronomical forcing. In particular, precession and obliquity are found to contribute in LOVECLIM equally to GDD in the Northern Hemisphere, and the effect of obliquity on the response of Southern Hemisphere temperature dominates precession effects. Precession dominates precipi- tation changes in subtropical areas. Compared to standard approaches based on a small number of simulations, the methodology presented here allows us to identify more systematically regions susceptible to experiencing rapid climate change in response to the smooth astronomical forcing change. In particular, we find that using interactive vegetation significantly enhances the expected rates of climate change, specifically in the Sahel (up to 50 % precipitation change in 1000 years) and in the Canadian Arctic region (up to 3◦ in 1000 years). None of the tested astronomical configurations were found to induce multiple steady states, but, at low obliquity, we observed the development of an oscillatory pattern that has already been reported in LOVECLIM. Although the mathematics of the analysis are fairly straightforward, the ... |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Bounceur, Nabila Crucifix, Michel Wilkinson, R. D. |
spellingShingle |
Bounceur, Nabila Crucifix, Michel Wilkinson, R. D. Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach |
author_facet |
Bounceur, Nabila Crucifix, Michel Wilkinson, R. D. |
author_sort |
Bounceur, Nabila |
title |
Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach |
title_short |
Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach |
title_full |
Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach |
title_fullStr |
Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach |
title_full_unstemmed |
Global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach |
title_sort |
global sensitivity analysis of the climate–vegetation system to astronomical forcing:an emulator-based approach |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181335 https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015 |
geographic |
Arctic |
geographic_facet |
Arctic |
genre |
Arctic Climate change |
genre_facet |
Arctic Climate change |
op_source |
Earth System Dynamics, Vol. 6, no.1, p. 205-224 (2015) |
op_relation |
info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC// boreal:181335 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/181335 doi:10.5194/esd-6-205-2015 urn:ISSN:2190-4979 urn:EISSN:2190-4987 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/esd-6-205-2015 |
container_title |
Earth System Dynamics |
container_volume |
6 |
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1 |
container_start_page |
205 |
op_container_end_page |
224 |
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1798842523288862720 |