Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate re...
Published in: | Nature Climate Change |
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/177640 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 |
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:177640 2024-05-19T07:32:04+00:00 Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie J. Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2016 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/177640 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 eng eng Nature Publishing Group boreal:177640 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/177640 doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 urn:ISSN:1758-678X urn:EISSN:1758-6798 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, no.10, p. 917-926 (2016) CISM:CECI 1443 info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2016 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 2024-04-24T01:23:16Z Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) Nature Climate Change 6 10 917 926 |
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DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
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ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
topic |
CISM:CECI 1443 |
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CISM:CECI 1443 Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie J. Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
topic_facet |
CISM:CECI 1443 |
description |
Understanding the causes of recent climatic trends and variability in the high-latitude Southern Hemisphere is hampered by a short instrumental record. Here, we analyse recent atmosphere, surface ocean and sea-ice observations in this region and assess their trends in the context of palaeoclimate records and climate model simulations. Over the 36-year satellite era, significant linear trends in annual mean sea-ice extent, surface temperature and sea-level pressure are superimposed on large interannual to decadal variability. Most observed trends, however, are not unusual when compared with Antarctic palaeoclimate records of the past two centuries. With the exception of the positive trend in the Southern Annular Mode, climate model simulations that include anthropogenic forcing are not compatible with the observed trends. This suggests that natural variability overwhelms the forced response in the observations, but the models may not fully represent this natural variability or may overestimate the magnitude of the forced response. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie J. Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. |
author_facet |
Jones, Julie M. Gille, Sarah T. Goosse, Hugues Abram, Nerilie J. Canziani, Pablo O. Charman, Dan J. Clem, Kyle R. Crosta, Xavier de Lavergne, Casimir Eisenman, Ian England, Matthew H. Fogt, Ryan L. Frankcombe, Leela M. Marshall, Gareth J. Masson-Delmotte, Valérie Morrison, Adele K. Orsi, Anaïs J. Raphael, Marilyn N. Renwick, James A. Schneider, David P. Simpkins, Graham R. Steig, Eric J. Stenni, Barbara Swingedouw, Didier Vance, Tessa R. |
author_sort |
Jones, Julie M. |
title |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_short |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_fullStr |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_full_unstemmed |
Assessing recent trends in high-latitude Southern Hemisphere surface climate |
title_sort |
assessing recent trends in high-latitude southern hemisphere surface climate |
publisher |
Nature Publishing Group |
publishDate |
2016 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/177640 https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Nature Climate Change, Vol. 6, no.10, p. 917-926 (2016) |
op_relation |
boreal:177640 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/177640 doi:10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 urn:ISSN:1758-678X urn:EISSN:1758-6798 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.1038/NCLIMATE3103 |
container_title |
Nature Climate Change |
container_volume |
6 |
container_issue |
10 |
container_start_page |
917 |
op_container_end_page |
926 |
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1799470018326429696 |