Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean
Recent studies have investigated the potential link between the freshwater input derived from the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and the observed recent increase in sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean. In this study, we assess the impact of an additional freshwater flux on the trend in sea ice...
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:157695 2024-05-19T07:31:23+00:00 Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2015 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/157695 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015 eng eng Copernicus GmbH boreal:157695 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/157695 doi:10.5194/tc-9-541-2015 urn:ISSN:1994-0416 urn:EISSN:1994-0424 info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess The Cryosphere, Vol. 9, no.2, p. 541-556 (2015) CISM : CECI info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2015 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015 2024-04-24T01:31:48Z Recent studies have investigated the potential link between the freshwater input derived from the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and the observed recent increase in sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean. In this study, we assess the impact of an additional freshwater flux on the trend in sea ice extent and concentration in simulations with data assimilation, spanning the period 1850–2009, as well as in retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) initialised in 1980. In the simulations with data assimilation, the inclusion of an additional freshwater flux that follows an autoregressive process improves the reconstruction of the trend in ice extent and concentration between 1980 and 2009. This is linked to a better efficiency of the data assimilation procedure but can also be due to a better representation of the freshwater cycle in the Southern Ocean. The results of the hindcast simulations show that an adequate initial state, reconstructed thanks to the data assimilation procedure including an additional freshwater flux, can lead to an increase in the sea ice extent spanning several decades that is in agreement with satellite observations. In our hindcast simulations, an increase in sea ice extent is obtained even in the absence of any major change in the freshwater input over the last decades. Therefore, while the additional freshwater flux appears to play a key role in the reconstruction of the evolution of the sea ice in the simulation with data assimilation, it does not seem to be required in the hindcast simulations. The present work thus provides encouraging results for sea ice predictions in the Southern Ocean, as in our simulation the positive trend in ice extent over the last 30 years is largely determined by the state of the system in the late 1970s. Article in Journal/Newspaper Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) The Cryosphere 9 2 541 556 |
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Open Polar |
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DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
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ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
topic |
CISM : CECI |
spellingShingle |
CISM : CECI Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean |
topic_facet |
CISM : CECI |
description |
Recent studies have investigated the potential link between the freshwater input derived from the melting of the Antarctic ice sheet and the observed recent increase in sea ice extent in the Southern Ocean. In this study, we assess the impact of an additional freshwater flux on the trend in sea ice extent and concentration in simulations with data assimilation, spanning the period 1850–2009, as well as in retrospective forecasts (hindcasts) initialised in 1980. In the simulations with data assimilation, the inclusion of an additional freshwater flux that follows an autoregressive process improves the reconstruction of the trend in ice extent and concentration between 1980 and 2009. This is linked to a better efficiency of the data assimilation procedure but can also be due to a better representation of the freshwater cycle in the Southern Ocean. The results of the hindcast simulations show that an adequate initial state, reconstructed thanks to the data assimilation procedure including an additional freshwater flux, can lead to an increase in the sea ice extent spanning several decades that is in agreement with satellite observations. In our hindcast simulations, an increase in sea ice extent is obtained even in the absence of any major change in the freshwater input over the last decades. Therefore, while the additional freshwater flux appears to play a key role in the reconstruction of the evolution of the sea ice in the simulation with data assimilation, it does not seem to be required in the hindcast simulations. The present work thus provides encouraging results for sea ice predictions in the Southern Ocean, as in our simulation the positive trend in ice extent over the last 30 years is largely determined by the state of the system in the late 1970s. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues |
author_facet |
Zunz, Violette Goosse, Hugues |
author_sort |
Zunz, Violette |
title |
Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean |
title_short |
Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean |
title_full |
Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean |
title_fullStr |
Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean |
title_full_unstemmed |
Influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the Southern Ocean |
title_sort |
influence of freshwater input on the skill of decadal forecast of sea ice in the southern ocean |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2015 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/157695 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015 |
genre |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Antarc* Antarctic Ice Sheet Sea ice Southern Ocean The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol. 9, no.2, p. 541-556 (2015) |
op_relation |
boreal:157695 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/157695 doi:10.5194/tc-9-541-2015 urn:ISSN:1994-0416 urn:EISSN:1994-0424 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-9-541-2015 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
9 |
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2 |
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541 |
op_container_end_page |
556 |
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