Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs
Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea iceextent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a t...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/147299 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 |
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:147299 2024-05-12T07:58:03+00:00 Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs Hezel, Paul Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2014 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/147299 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 eng eng Copernicus GmbH boreal:147299 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/147299 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 urn:ISSN:1994-0416 urn:EISSN:1994-0424 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, no.8, p. 1195–1204 (2014) CISM:CECI sea ice 1443 info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2014 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 2024-04-17T17:16:41Z Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea iceextent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all nine models.RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline after the forcing stabilizes due to continued warming on longer timescales. Based on the analysis of these two scenarios, we suggest that Arctic summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in seven of nine models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and the reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) Arctic Arctic Ocean The Cryosphere 8 4 1195 1204 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
topic |
CISM:CECI sea ice 1443 |
spellingShingle |
CISM:CECI sea ice 1443 Hezel, Paul Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
topic_facet |
CISM:CECI sea ice 1443 |
description |
Almost all global climate models and Earth system models that participated in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project 5 (CMIP5) show strong declines in Arctic sea iceextent and volume under the highest forcing scenario of the representative concentration pathways (RCPs) through 2100, including a transition from perennial to seasonal ice cover. Extended RCP simulations through 2300 were completed for a subset of models, and here we examine the time evolution of Arctic sea ice in these simulations. In RCP2.6, the summer Arctic sea ice extent increases compared to its minimum following the peak radiative forcing in 2044 in all nine models.RCP4.5 demonstrates continued summer Arctic sea ice decline after the forcing stabilizes due to continued warming on longer timescales. Based on the analysis of these two scenarios, we suggest that Arctic summer sea ice extent could begin to recover if and when radiative forcing from greenhouse gas concentrations were to decrease. In RCP8.5 the Arctic Ocean reaches annually ice-free conditions in seven of nine models. The ensemble of simulations completed under the extended RCPs provide insight into the global temperature increase at which sea ice disappears in the Arctic and the reversibility of declines in seasonal sea ice extent. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Hezel, Paul Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François |
author_facet |
Hezel, Paul Fichefet, Thierry Massonnet, François |
author_sort |
Hezel, Paul |
title |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_short |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_full |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_fullStr |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_full_unstemmed |
Modeled Arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in CMIP5 extended RCPs |
title_sort |
modeled arctic sea ice evolution through 2300 in cmip5 extended rcps |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2014 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/147299 https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 |
geographic |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
geographic_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean |
genre |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere |
genre_facet |
Arctic Arctic Ocean Sea ice The Cryosphere |
op_source |
The Cryosphere, Vol. 8, no.8, p. 1195–1204 (2014) |
op_relation |
boreal:147299 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/147299 doi:10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 urn:ISSN:1994-0416 urn:EISSN:1994-0424 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/tc-8-1195-2014 |
container_title |
The Cryosphere |
container_volume |
8 |
container_issue |
4 |
container_start_page |
1195 |
op_container_end_page |
1204 |
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1798838390174515200 |