Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century
The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show...
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Online Access: | http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/129500 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-683-2007 |
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ftunivlouvain:oai:dial.uclouvain.be:boreal:129500 2024-05-19T07:33:39+00:00 Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century Goosse, Hugues Driesschaert, Emmanuelle Fichefet, Thierry Loutre, Marie-France UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate 2007 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/129500 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-683-2007 eng eng Copernicus GmbH boreal:129500 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/129500 doi:10.5194/cp-3-683-2007 urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:EISSN:1814-9332 info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess Climate of the Past, Vol. 3, no. 4, p. 683-692 (2007) CISM: CECI 1443 info:eu-repo/semantics/article 2007 ftunivlouvain https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-683-2007 2024-04-24T01:38:40Z The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes during the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) and the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing for the reduction of this uncertainty. Us- ing the limited number of records presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes over the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century (and also over the 21st century) are not consistent with recent observations. Us- ing this very complementary information based on observa- tions during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection with LOVECLIM indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice in summer at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results thus strongly indicate that ad- ditional proxy records of the early Holocene sea ice changes, in particular in the central Arctic Basin, would help to im- prove our projections of summer sea ice evolution and that the simulation at 8 kyr BP should be considered as a standard test for models aiming at simulating those future summer sea ice changes in the Arctic. Article in Journal/Newspaper Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) Climate of the Past 3 4 683 692 |
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Open Polar |
collection |
DIAL@UCLouvain (Université catholique de Louvain) |
op_collection_id |
ftunivlouvain |
language |
English |
topic |
CISM: CECI 1443 |
spellingShingle |
CISM: CECI 1443 Goosse, Hugues Driesschaert, Emmanuelle Fichefet, Thierry Loutre, Marie-France Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century |
topic_facet |
CISM: CECI 1443 |
description |
The summer sea ice extent strongly decreased in the Arctic over the last decades. This decline is very likely to continue in the future but uncertainty of projections is very large. An ensemble of experiments with the climate model LOVECLIM using 5 different parameter sets has been performed to show that summer sea ice changes during the early Holocene (8 kyr BP) and the 21st century are strongly linked, allowing for the reduction of this uncertainty. Us- ing the limited number of records presently available for the early Holocene, simulations presenting very large changes over the 21st century could reasonably be rejected. On the other hand, simulations displaying low to moderate changes during the second half of the 20th century (and also over the 21st century) are not consistent with recent observations. Us- ing this very complementary information based on observa- tions during both the early Holocene and the last decades, the most realistic projection with LOVECLIM indicates a nearly disappearance of the sea ice in summer at the end of the 21st century for a moderate increase in atmospheric greenhouse gas concentrations. Our results thus strongly indicate that ad- ditional proxy records of the early Holocene sea ice changes, in particular in the central Arctic Basin, would help to im- prove our projections of summer sea ice evolution and that the simulation at 8 kyr BP should be considered as a standard test for models aiming at simulating those future summer sea ice changes in the Arctic. |
author2 |
UCL - SST/ELI/ELIC - Earth & Climate |
format |
Article in Journal/Newspaper |
author |
Goosse, Hugues Driesschaert, Emmanuelle Fichefet, Thierry Loutre, Marie-France |
author_facet |
Goosse, Hugues Driesschaert, Emmanuelle Fichefet, Thierry Loutre, Marie-France |
author_sort |
Goosse, Hugues |
title |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_short |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_full |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_fullStr |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_full_unstemmed |
Information on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryInformation on the early Holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century |
title_sort |
information on the early holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st centuryinformation on the early holocene climate constrains the summersea ice projections for the 21st century |
publisher |
Copernicus GmbH |
publishDate |
2007 |
url |
http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/129500 https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-683-2007 |
genre |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
genre_facet |
Arctic Basin Arctic Sea ice |
op_source |
Climate of the Past, Vol. 3, no. 4, p. 683-692 (2007) |
op_relation |
boreal:129500 http://hdl.handle.net/2078.1/129500 doi:10.5194/cp-3-683-2007 urn:ISSN:1814-9324 urn:EISSN:1814-9332 |
op_rights |
info:eu-repo/semantics/restrictedAccess |
op_doi |
https://doi.org/10.5194/cp-3-683-2007 |
container_title |
Climate of the Past |
container_volume |
3 |
container_issue |
4 |
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683 |
op_container_end_page |
692 |
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